World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71952358d295e080d40f89e2594839e92266ac8282e045a780478876c33a90b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1884…a609backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 5c | 847.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e10…a68abacked Yes | 17c | 640.54$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 5c | 448.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 11c | 379.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 14c | 335.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 306.85$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.54 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 10c | 287.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 7c | 263.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 11c | 231.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 10c | 230.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 11c | 229.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 220.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…94b8backed Yes | 19c | 215.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 212.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e7…8ffbbacked Yes | 28c | 196.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 12c | 195.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…0400backed Yes | 28c | 179.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 13c | 154.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 27c | 152.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 78c | 128.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 72c | 124.8$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 122.01$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked No | 68c | 121.56$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 118.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 13c | 117.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 12c | 115.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 16c | 114.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 113.83$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 23c | 102.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59f7…b535backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3728…a76dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 13c | 93.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 12c | 92.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 22c | 91.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 87.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 85.11$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 23c | 78.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 29c | 69.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…a4febacked Yes | 22c | 66.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 53 | 83%44 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bba…a69fbacked Yes | 22c | 60.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 72c | 58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 29c | 55.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 28c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…477dbacked Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 30c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6d…fe80backed Yes | 26c | 41.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 39.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83bb…b01fbacked Yes | 30c | 34.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 77c | 28.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 69c | 23.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 78c | 18.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 17.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…3215backed No | 76c | 15.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed No | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +6.3wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.