TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,247
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,643

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,247 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6e5e…dbfdbacked Yes0c17,908$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes1c3,982$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.823360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes2c1,021$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.96241.9%26 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104922.4%11 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes11c934.25$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.23966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+159.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No74c602.11$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.9321844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes64c561.22$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.7111039.1%43 W · 67 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes33c447.56$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.565827.6%16 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes31c304$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2111636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed Yes23c300$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.326533.8%22 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No67c299.97$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.1118762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed No77c292.58$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.7311053.6%59 W · 51 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No75c262.14$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.510043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No17c254.68$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.5526632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ebf…a01dbacked Yes40c249.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes9c230$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2152850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No73c218.1$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.8535258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No72c212$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.5739952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6410733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes15c182$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.31421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+102.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes22c175.26$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.999123.1%21 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfba1…2769backed Yes46c164.09$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.98812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick35cpaid-45.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca19…b0cabacked No80c162.86$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed No75c158.42$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.834358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed Yes14c149.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-67%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c147.47$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.727521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes9c138$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.745837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes34c135.81$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.018636%31 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes24c133.29$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.57345.2%33 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No72c129.7$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6518348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa97f…6c46backed Yes37c129$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No78c128.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.367058.6%41 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No80c111.57$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.533565.7%23 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No71c110.78$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.887560%45 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes28c110$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.310629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes21c109.75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.056336.5%23 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes33c108$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.246731.3%21 W · 46 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+66.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes33c105$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.875251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7839414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2814842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c3d…d3e9backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick69cpaid+29.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf352…a070backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-64.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+36.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No74c95.47$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7216755.1%92 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes24c92.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.176330.2%19 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes29c92.31$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.688856.8%50 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes32c90$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5516934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No67c89.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.75646.4%26 W · 30 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No78c85.2$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4734354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa5c…a240backed No77c79.2$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.531163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked Yes18c75.87$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.665957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes21c75.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.544138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1933…1a53backed Yes37c73.29$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.79147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick32cpaid-82.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes20c71.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5710039%39 W · 61 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+26.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x718c…11e0backed No76c71.27$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.27366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes16c68.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1118158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No66c68$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.932142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes18c66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.881216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6173…31d4backed No76c65.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.79366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick76cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83bb…b01fbacked Yes19c61.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.61457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9211045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No74c59.05$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.123459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes28c56.63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.881637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes23c55.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.082646.2%12 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+32.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No76c53$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8231152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes19c52.64$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1018638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes49c52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.384052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes25c51.24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.636437.5%24 W · 40 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43b0…1402backed No77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.51060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+20.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.35250%26 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae99…2ed5backed No63c49.97$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.391154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes25c49.28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4112238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed Yes63c47.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-52%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes22c47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.344233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No78c46.73$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.115066%33 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3621…9da2backed Yes34c44.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick22cpaid+75.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes28c43.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.431723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-59%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0da…4162backed Yes33c43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.19728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+126.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No47c35.39$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7516051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed Yes44c33.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No71c32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2818669.4%129 W · 57 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes44c31.51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149959.6%59 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a96…cf5cbacked No77c30.87$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.828558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No76c29.72$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2332639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No71c29$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.415345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No62c28.52$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7915954.1%86 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No72c27.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7810640.6%43 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No62c27.47$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4113155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No45c26.69$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.688038.8%31 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe801…764fbacked No71c26.31$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.632100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes60c25.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No67c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3636055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56e7…a35dbacked Yes56c24.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.99933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-49.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c70…edf3backed No65c24.47$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.47560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f33…da59backed No63c23.94$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.941361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No70c23.54$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1215056.7%85 W · 65 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No78c23.03$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.075756.1%32 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes45c22.92$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2616852.4%88 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No71c22.37$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.493663.9%23 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.