Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5df2b1eee1b40c0ff3ae1c0c3bac9697f718ded26c3eff9ddb0084f613a71a34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 16c | 3,732$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.43 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…176dbacked Yes | 34c | 2,940$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.67 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…c149backed Yes | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +208.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 52c | 1,924$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x264d…6f2bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,540$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.69 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 69c | 1,480$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.95 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +182.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 19c | 1,447$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.12 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes | 16c | 1,098$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 1,043$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.4 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 852.8$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.91 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed No | 29c | 517$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…84eabacked Yes | 16c | 514.71$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5287…3a16backed No | 62c | 493$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 18c | 485.6$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 34c | 390$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +655.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…af95backed No | 7c | 304.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +435.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 301$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd542…08abbacked Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 36c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf52a…e276backed Yes | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcadc…fa5bbacked No | 69c | 191.84$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 78c | 190$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 185$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.35 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2b…b4ffbacked No | 65c | 161.46$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 18c | 155.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked No | 58c | 147.67$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 79c | 130.19$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 23c | 121.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 62c | 117$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9842…132bbacked Yes | 20c | 114.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 58c | 111.41$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 63c | 101.02$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 79c | 100.47$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…16a7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 59c | 92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 65c | 88.21$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1d…1c4bbacked Yes | 41c | 83.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…0a8bbacked No | 31c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cc…2506backed Yes | 21c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 58.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 61c | 54.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb631…7f5abacked Yes | 23c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 63c | 50.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 36c | 43.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 36.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 60c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 80c | 26.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 63c | 21.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in May?Yes won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in May?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% in May?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.9% or more in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.