Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2d112ac92d94c29edfc66bd39be876d298966eae73e815a377fc2decf8291a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 17c | 2,030$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.1 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9842…132bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,057$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 18c | 999.99$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 16c | 938.83$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.32 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74b4…6beabacked Yes | 17c | 791.06$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 19c | 399.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Yes | 10c | 292.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 17c | 273.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +655.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 271.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd542…08abbacked Yes | 19c | 260$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 19c | 251.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…74f5backed Yes | 13c | 218.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +208.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…8df9backed Yes | 17c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 60 | 5%3 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 190.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 160$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 157.2$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…16a7backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa156…cf02backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 20c | 130.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…15d2backed Yes | 19c | 127.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 24c | 92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Yes | 19c | 80.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 14c | 71.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 68.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d6…d998backed Yes | 18c | 63.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 76c | 63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8386…c2f2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 74c | 26.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in May?Yes won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in May?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% in May?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.9% or more in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.