TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Minnesota Lynxof New York Liberty, Minnesota Lynx
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$228,095
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$233,620

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $228,095 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 229 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf070…ac55backed Minnesota Lynx56c18,020$10,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,960.1310749.5%53 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Minnesota Lynx61c14,971$9,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,833.836154%195 W · 166 L+0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked New York Liberty39c13,655$5,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,322.7210338.8%40 W · 63 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed New York Liberty37c9,814$3,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,583.6227449.6%136 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked New York Liberty44c9,355$4,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,098.131,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Lynx56c5,686$3,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,504.5699548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed New York Liberty36c5,491$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,997.177746.8%36 W · 41 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bff…fc26backed New York Liberty36c5,236$1,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,885.138937.1%33 W · 56 L-8.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed New York Liberty37c5,162$1,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9107236.1%26 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30c1…9f91backed Minnesota Lynx63c5,113$3,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,891.642055%11 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed New York Liberty42c4,955$2,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,057.2278548.8%383 W · 402 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed New York Liberty38c4,933$1,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,876.831043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked New York Liberty1c4,500$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31960%0 W · 96 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Lynx63c4,498$2,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,664.3483748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Minnesota Lynx64c4,000$2,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4408159.3%48 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Minnesota Lynx63c3,772$2,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,395.8740550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Liberty36c3,749$1,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,335.861,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98e1…3241backed Minnesota Lynx55c3,309$1,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,478.182360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed New York Liberty2c3,100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.544915.6%70 W · 379 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed New York Liberty37c2,840$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.6617656.8%100 W · 76 L+12.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked New York Liberty24c2,598$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.5310340.8%42 W · 61 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed New York Liberty38c2,500$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96211250%56 W · 56 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked New York Liberty41c2,259$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.9713844.9%62 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b0…89d3backed Minnesota Lynx76c2,089$1,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.32771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Minnesota Lynx61c2,000$1,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7859139.6%36 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked New York Liberty30c1,939$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.8410634.9%37 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Minnesota Lynx53c1,860$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867.657259.7%43 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked New York Liberty37c1,813$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.9811351.3%58 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf202…9ea8backed New York Liberty56c1,706$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.053762.2%23 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed New York Liberty19c1,661$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.0934726.5%92 W · 255 L-20.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe21e…f216backed Minnesota Lynx64c1,539$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5541631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-42%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed New York Liberty36c1,327$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.2812045%54 W · 66 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Minnesota Lynx63c1,296$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.4241145.7%188 W · 223 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8228…b2fbbacked New York Liberty38c1,290$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4911637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked New York Liberty47c1,250$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.54020%8 W · 32 L-10.5wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-63.2%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x0373…4057backed New York Liberty37c1,235$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.958733.3%29 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Lynx58c1,213$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.1150646.8%237 W · 269 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x231a…a82fbacked New York Liberty45c1,200$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91b6…4b40backed New York Liberty35c1,143$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40012234.4%42 W · 80 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed New York Liberty30c1,112$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.0419428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Minnesota Lynx60c1,110$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.1441147%193 W · 218 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Minnesota Lynx63c1,106$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.222245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed New York Liberty17c1,099$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.628837.5%33 W · 55 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed New York Liberty27c1,079$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.631353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Minnesota Lynx60c1,056$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.1719458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xab4a…823abacked Minnesota Lynx64c1,000$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.2966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed Minnesota Lynx52c959.79$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.186956.5%39 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked New York Liberty42c944.99$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.6823955.2%132 W · 107 L+12.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Minnesota Lynx63c892.77$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.3292248.8%450 W · 472 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed New York Liberty27c805.71$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.0715048%72 W · 78 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6262…b5c0backed New York Liberty12c792.08$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.422015%3 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-0.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ef…b630backed Minnesota Lynx42c760.84$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.144533.3%15 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Minnesota Lynx63c755$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.6712144.6%54 W · 67 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabe0…5adbbacked Minnesota Lynx64c730.96$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.158061.3%49 W · 31 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed New York Liberty38c701.92$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.9910453.8%56 W · 48 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1d7…47a4backed Minnesota Lynx55c685.76$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.989549.5%47 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked New York Liberty24c643.71$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.3119031.1%59 W · 131 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked New York Liberty46c634.41$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.7515250.7%77 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed New York Liberty51c605.21$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.7755255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Minnesota Lynx49c600.21$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.841258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Liberty18c592.88$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.7550952.5%267 W · 242 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe342…b692backed Minnesota Lynx64c580$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.82263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x57cc…0fa7backed Minnesota Lynx62c568.42$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.1712345.5%56 W · 67 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51e8…ebb7backed Minnesota Lynx53c567.69$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.69520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-62.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed New York Liberty13c500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6512840.6%52 W · 76 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Minnesota Lynx60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20019446.4%90 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed New York Liberty5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255020%10 W · 40 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ac1…d5a6backed Minnesota Lynx64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1808657%49 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a67…5d96backed New York Liberty5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked New York Liberty49c470.92$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2306237.1%23 W · 39 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed New York Liberty26c427.06$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9216633.1%55 W · 111 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed New York Liberty29c424.63$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.9811841.5%49 W · 69 L+0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed New York Liberty22c422.48$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3813358.6%78 W · 55 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc3c…d6c2backed New York Liberty37c400$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1483342.4%14 W · 19 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3992…349cbacked New York Liberty29c349.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007435.1%26 W · 48 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-14%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Minnesota Lynx45c349.69$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.1510858.3%63 W · 45 L+10.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed Minnesota Lynx46c326$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.04650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Minnesota Lynx63c317.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.4722446%103 W · 121 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4e2…0f82backed Minnesota Lynx64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.53857.9%22 W · 16 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+18.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7693…470fbacked Minnesota Lynx65c307.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.691631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81a9…df08backed Minnesota Lynx65c307.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.693043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-21%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked New York Liberty27c298.93$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.814748.9%23 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Minnesota Lynx44c283.58$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.0814947.7%71 W · 78 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked New York Liberty18c271.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50908.9%8 W · 82 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked New York Liberty53c260.18$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.97431.1%23 W · 51 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-34.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked New York Liberty18c257.1$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.414936.9%55 W · 94 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x997c…51f3backed New York Liberty51c246$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.341513.3%2 W · 13 L-4.8wins-0.32per pick45cpaid-80.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed New York Liberty38c231$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.783839.5%15 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3694…4fd6backed New York Liberty48c229.17$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7509…645fbacked New York Liberty26c213.88$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed New York Liberty22c212.06$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x701c…b953backed Minnesota Lynx43c210$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.7955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed New York Liberty24c209.41$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6561042.5%259 W · 351 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa597…79d7backed New York Liberty48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-33.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x01c3…2061backed Minnesota Lynx64c204.99$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.8580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+49.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Minnesota Lynx60c200$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.6739947.1%188 W · 211 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5440…c640backed Minnesota Lynx55c199.99$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901650%8 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ea…2f71backed New York Liberty41c197.63$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.22661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed New York Liberty55c196.83$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9812355.3%68 W · 55 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64d0…5fc2backed New York Liberty37c195.61$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.662040%8 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.