TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9ac1…d5a6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
313
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: NBA, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 53 out of 100; worst Olympics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT21950.7%111 W · 108 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 219 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$300.73
NBA Summer League: LA Lakers vs. Golden State Warriorsbacked LA Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$183.15
NBA Summer League: LA Lakers vs. LA Clippersbacked LA Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$67.34
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$257Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+386.3%+$992.97
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$711.04
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$115
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$179.82
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+203%+$201
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$320
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$135
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$127.87
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$225.5
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$43.5
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$180
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.5
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$275
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$137
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.03
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$77.5
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+152.8%+$94.67
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$51
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$309.8
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$314Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$313.85
Timberwolves vs. Spursbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Showing 25 of 219 picks, newest first.
WNBAlast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT8657%49 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
WNBA — the 86 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynxbacked Golden State Valkyries · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+203%+$335
Connecticut Sun vs. Los Angeles Sparksbacked Los Angeles Sparks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+57.1%+$107.9
Portland Fire vs. Toronto Tempobacked Portland Fire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$232
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mysticsbacked Minnesota Lynx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$336Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$264
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyriesbacked Golden State Valkyries · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$147.02
Atlanta Dream vs. Las Vegas Acesbacked Atlanta Dream · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+65.2%+$33.23
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Skybacked Chicago Sky · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$44.47
Portland Fire vs. Phoenix Mercurybacked Portland Fire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$455
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dreambacked Indiana Fever · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$208.73
Golden State Valkyries vs. Dallas Wingsbacked Golden State Valkyries · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$168.12
Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Feverbacked Indiana Fever · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Chicago Skybacked Chicago Sky · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$126
Dallas Wings vs. Washington Mysticsbacked Dallas Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$162
Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dreambacked Phoenix Mercury · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.62
Toronto Tempo vs. Golden State Valkyriesbacked Toronto Tempo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercurybacked Phoenix Mercury · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$369Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$369
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Acesbacked Las Vegas Aces · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$180
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Skybacked Chicago Sky · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$297Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$153
Golden State Valkyries vs. Phoenix Mercurybacked Golden State Valkyries · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$360
Atlanta Dream vs. Dallas Wingsbacked Dallas Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$389.25
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparksbacked Los Angeles Sparks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.48
Connecticut Sun vs. Washington Mysticsbacked Washington Mystics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$113.22
Phoenix Mercury vs. Los Angeles Sparksbacked Phoenix Mercury · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$107.37
Chicago Sky vs. Atlanta Dreambacked Chicago Sky · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.42
Washington Mystics vs. Golden State Valkyriesbacked Golden State Valkyries · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$128
Showing 25 of 86 picks, newest first.
NFLlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ravens vs. Vikingsbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+90.6%+$72.28
Packers vs. Broncosbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$20.07
Jets vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.21
All 3 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.66
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$28
All 2 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Men's Final - Canada vs. USAbacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$16.39
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finlandbacked Finland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 2 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.