TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Dallas Wings vs. Washington Mystics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Washington Mysticsof Dallas Wings, Washington Mystics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$274,067
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$265,916

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,067 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Dallas Wings67c11,731$7,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,830.7299548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Dallas Wings29c11,262$3,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,215.2410340.8%42 W · 61 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Washington Mystics12c11,087$1,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,771.350952.5%267 W · 242 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Dallas Wings56c10,386$5,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,816.082646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Mystics18c10,072$1,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,304.5189349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Mystics60c9,056$5,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,598.4737141.2%153 W · 218 L-13.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Washington Mystics44c8,757$3,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,903.921844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed Washington Mystics46c8,000$3,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,319.998447.6%40 W · 44 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Dallas Wings55c6,918$3,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,794.8883748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Dallas Wings12c6,823$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.737740.3%31 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04e6…3914backed Dallas Wings56c6,126$3,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,430.510463.5%66 W · 38 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+19.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Washington Mystics43c6,121$2,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,480.3610338.8%40 W · 63 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Dallas Wings63c5,958$3,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,770.511,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa3…7e2ebacked Dallas Wings80c5,901$4,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,694.91633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-40.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Dallas Wings77c5,612$4,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,330.5850646.8%237 W · 269 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Dallas Wings56c5,477$3,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,088.0140550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Dallas Wings54c4,395$2,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,366.4810838.9%42 W · 66 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Washington Mystics12c3,848$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,386.1937850%189 W · 189 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Dallas Wings29c2,881$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.3431043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Washington Mystics44c2,763$1,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,554.6836750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Washington Mystics45c2,581$1,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,422.1738650.3%194 W · 192 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Washington Mystics11c2,500$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,222.4812045%54 W · 66 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd072…95e8backed Dallas Wings43c2,111$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.58540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Washington Mystics42c2,088$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,210.5812144.6%54 W · 67 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed Washington Mystics48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.336956.5%39 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Dallas Wings56c2,070$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.0432150.2%161 W · 160 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Dallas Wings54c2,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.9913746%63 W · 74 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Washington Mystics19c2,000$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,621.7232540.3%131 W · 194 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Dallas Wings57c1,685$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.929354.8%51 W · 42 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Dallas Wings77c1,646$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.0417656.8%100 W · 76 L+12.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Washington Mystics12c1,600$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,410.0528647.9%137 W · 149 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Dallas Wings2c1,550$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2544915.6%70 W · 379 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked Dallas Wings1c1,333$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164235.7%15 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-10.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Dallas Wings37c1,327$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.075149%25 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Washington Mystics36c1,250$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.8519458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x969e…b834backed Dallas Wings13c1,236$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.362917.2%5 W · 24 L-6.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-39.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xdda3…d55fbacked Washington Mystics17c1,200$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.243020%6 W · 24 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-53.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd8fa…581fbacked Washington Mystics13c1,155$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.513158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb77…fbeebacked Washington Mystics13c1,106$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.215759.6%34 W · 23 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+24.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Dallas Wings5c1,066$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3434918.3%64 W · 285 L-49.5wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-58.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Washington Mystics18c1,058$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.1519428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd13e…ed01backed Dallas Wings38c1,005$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.87650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1efc…1a6bbacked Washington Mystics19c933.88$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.88850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+46%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Dallas Wings58c906.36$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.4114942.3%63 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Washington Mystics8c625.84$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.841030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+91.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb18c…694fbacked Washington Mystics13c625$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+225.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Washington Mystics39c603.81$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.455255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3131…91cdbacked Washington Mystics66c598.13$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.43475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+91%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Dallas Wings43c597.71$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.8911841.5%49 W · 69 L+0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4723…5f64backed Dallas Wings75c560.41$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.31250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Dallas Wings54c499.99$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.996544.6%29 W · 36 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Washington Mystics14c495$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.713024.6%32 W · 98 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked Dallas Wings26c490$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.954746.8%22 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa261…af5bbacked Washington Mystics74c489.58$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.082100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+55%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8557…6f88backed Washington Mystics42c478.13$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.133959%23 W · 16 L+5.6wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+30.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Washington Mystics41c454.72$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.2810548.6%51 W · 54 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Washington Mystics14c454.66$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.1436454.1%197 W · 167 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dee…a0f4backed Dallas Wings68c442.08$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+122.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Dallas Wings55c416.2$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.644456.8%25 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Washington Mystics43c402.3$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.3114060%84 W · 56 L+13.7wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Dallas Wings8c400$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6557.3%4 W · 51 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Dallas Wings71c375$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.28568.9%5 W · 51 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64d0…5fc2backed Dallas Wings38c358.29$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.162040%8 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Dallas Wings56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007450%37 W · 37 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Dallas Wings59c341.88$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.716854.4%37 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe0…cc67backed Washington Mystics13c330$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.633470.6%24 W · 10 L+5.4wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+46.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe89c…9c72backed Dallas Wings52c327$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcccc…05b2backed Dallas Wings80c314.46$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.57875%6 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick78cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2802…347dbacked Dallas Wings29c300$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-65.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ac1…d5a6backed Dallas Wings54c300$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1628657%49 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d9a…d10fbacked Dallas Wings29c300$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-30.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Washington Mystics40c297.98$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.985836.2%21 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Washington Mystics13c288.38$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.229460.6%57 W · 37 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Washington Mystics45c287.84$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.316845.6%31 W · 37 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed Washington Mystics40c285.42$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.8412661.1%77 W · 49 L+11.8wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Washington Mystics32c280.2$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.376339.7%25 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6865…6033backed Washington Mystics44c276$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.561040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-26.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e1a…d21fbacked Dallas Wings11c273.34$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa7…3767backed Washington Mystics49c266.15$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.151266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+41.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c62…722bbacked Washington Mystics11c265.57$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.36944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick24cpaid+106.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Dallas Wings47c255.33$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.228140.6%114 W · 167 L-1.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Washington Mystics52c251.24$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.1331847.8%152 W · 166 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabe0…5adbbacked Dallas Wings57c245.61$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1408061.3%49 W · 31 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Washington Mystics43c242.45$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.7315250.7%77 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9f…2cb8backed Dallas Wings65c241.54$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1572433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-34.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Dallas Wings40c241.32$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8637650.3%189 W · 187 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Dallas Wings31c240$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.825853.4%31 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd09…42d9backed Dallas Wings55c239.99$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.73259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked Washington Mystics12c239.92$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.13560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+170.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e1e…cbfbbacked Washington Mystics75c236.56$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.32666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1636…977bbacked Dallas Wings54c224.18$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Dallas Wings78c223.28$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.5720340.9%83 W · 120 L-16.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x112c…28b8backed Dallas Wings55c218.18$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Washington Mystics44c216.43$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.264152%333 W · 308 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Dallas Wings6c209$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5415748.4%76 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Washington Mystics15c201.58$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.219214.1%13 W · 79 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Dallas Wings57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11413844.9%62 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Washington Mystics35c200$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.929938.4%38 W · 61 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x08ce…86d3backed Dallas Wings56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1127643.4%33 W · 43 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc2…8b9bbacked Dallas Wings57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1149156%51 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.