TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
New York Libertyof New York Liberty, Phoenix Mercury
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$250,820
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$247,863

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $250,820 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafe4…f3f7backed Phoenix Mercury42c10,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,20027449.6%136 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ebb…cb1abacked New York Liberty70c9,554$6,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,871.01580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Phoenix Mercury32c7,854$2,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,514.2878548.8%383 W · 402 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Phoenix Mercury9c7,685$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.325020%10 W · 40 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed New York Liberty59c7,497$4,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,038.0712144.6%54 W · 67 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Phoenix Mercury54c6,416$3,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,482.9550646.8%237 W · 269 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Phoenix Mercury7c6,298$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.534726.5%92 W · 255 L-20.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd21c…2afcbacked Phoenix Mercury57c6,222$3,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,527.441662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Phoenix Mercury43c6,185$2,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,636.8437141.2%153 W · 218 L-13.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Phoenix Mercury5c5,805$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.8110838.9%42 W · 66 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Phoenix Mercury0c5,300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9960%0 W · 96 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed New York Liberty63c4,569$2,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,683.199548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed New York Liberty58c4,467$2,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,875.9740550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf731…e5c2backed New York Liberty67c4,463$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,462.552646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b4f…0591backed Phoenix Mercury25c4,112$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+24.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x246b…fb5bbacked Phoenix Mercury33c3,939$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed New York Liberty59c3,500$2,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,434.998159.3%48 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked New York Liberty62c3,244$2,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.591,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Phoenix Mercury7c2,990$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.926147.1%123 W · 138 L+15.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc43…96d3backed New York Liberty57c2,363$1,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.041586.7%13 W · 2 L+4.9wins+0.33per pick54cpaid+64.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x5fe8…ae27backed New York Liberty66c2,287$1,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.79366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-6.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Phoenix Mercury5c2,100$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10513024.6%32 W · 98 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Phoenix Mercury38c2,084$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.0536750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury25c2,075$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.551,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked Phoenix Mercury37c2,065$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.06333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed New York Liberty58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84083748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b7…5cd6backed New York Liberty80c2,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4003740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked New York Liberty38c1,962$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.0910340.8%42 W · 61 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Phoenix Mercury2c1,650$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4544915.6%70 W · 379 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed New York Liberty52c1,440$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.26956.5%39 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked Phoenix Mercury9c1,417$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.384235.7%15 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-10.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Phoenix Mercury41c1,262$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.8919458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed New York Liberty37c1,167$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.6219428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed New York Liberty44c1,159$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.045149%25 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked New York Liberty47c1,157$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.3615250.7%77 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd32e…b577backed New York Liberty33c1,149$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.192466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.2wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+35.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7120…7c4ebacked Phoenix Mercury32c1,133$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.358228%23 W · 59 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed Phoenix Mercury42c1,061$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.57138%27 W · 44 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ce6…7732backed Phoenix Mercury31c1,050$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+56.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b1…e904backed Phoenix Mercury33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3301145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked New York Liberty57c997.14$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.174456.8%25 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed New York Liberty45c975$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.67740.3%31 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ac1…d5a6backed Phoenix Mercury41c900$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3698657%49 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed New York Liberty42c828.61$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.7121446.3%99 W · 115 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Phoenix Mercury16c824$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.8431043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked New York Liberty55c822.37$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.7719031.1%59 W · 131 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Phoenix Mercury33c801.85$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.4389349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Phoenix Mercury1c800$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10557.3%4 W · 51 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed New York Liberty75c799.75$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.9111841.5%49 W · 69 L+0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Phoenix Mercury58c779.26$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.430347.2%143 W · 160 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed New York Liberty51c770.74$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.7716633.1%55 W · 111 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc638…e298backed Phoenix Mercury41c731.71$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004245.2%19 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed New York Liberty58c729$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.4936154%195 W · 166 L+0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Phoenix Mercury27c703.76$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.5714942.3%63 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Phoenix Mercury23c690.05$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.4531847.8%152 W · 166 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Phoenix Mercury36c675.04$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.125836.2%21 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x64d0…5fc2backed Phoenix Mercury36c643.85$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.722040%8 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dd2…9014backed New York Liberty79c632.91$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.912755.6%15 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Phoenix Mercury42c619.41$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.1538650.3%194 W · 192 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked New York Liberty53c586.32$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.1685158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Phoenix Mercury30c558.98$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.623234.5%80 W · 152 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Phoenix Mercury41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2059139.6%36 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc064…6fa8backed Phoenix Mercury34c500$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1703342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Phoenix Mercury74c497.31$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.9950952.5%267 W · 242 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Phoenix Mercury24c479.76$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.7532150.2%161 W · 160 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ccf…ef8abacked Phoenix Mercury21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004763.8%30 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd75a…d264backed New York Liberty47c445$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.46977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick60cpaid+32.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc820…49debacked Phoenix Mercury21c437.18$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.815949.2%29 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d7…47a4backed New York Liberty45c437.18$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.189549.5%47 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aca…61fdbacked New York Liberty58c412.66$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.6814148.9%69 W · 72 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked New York Liberty41c401$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.215853.4%31 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a35…a72fbacked Phoenix Mercury10c382$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-61.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed New York Liberty52c378.96$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.1410538.1%40 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7b2…7b9cbacked New York Liberty27c362.96$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+23.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0373…4057backed Phoenix Mercury42c301.73$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.738733.3%29 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdda3…d55fbacked New York Liberty66c300$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1023020%6 W · 24 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-53.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f26…c83bbacked New York Liberty27c300$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+85.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe692…13a8backed New York Liberty57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1293850%19 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed New York Liberty57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12913249.2%65 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Phoenix Mercury42c299.99$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12739947.1%188 W · 211 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Phoenix Mercury52c289.46$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.720340.9%83 W · 120 L-16.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3992…349cbacked Phoenix Mercury35c284.48$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007435.1%26 W · 48 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-14%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Phoenix Mercury43c275.88$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.4392248.8%450 W · 472 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Phoenix Mercury42c275.56$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.7630734.2%105 W · 202 L-28.2wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-23.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Phoenix Mercury41c268.31$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0171245.4%323 W · 389 L-19.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf83d…367dbacked New York Liberty79c240$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.41258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed Phoenix Mercury42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011353.1%60 W · 53 L+0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd51b…90a8backed New York Liberty75c235.75$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.883762.2%23 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e92…5280backed Phoenix Mercury64c233.45$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x35fe…95f7backed Phoenix Mercury24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd09…42d9backed New York Liberty59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7b8…31e6backed New York Liberty46c176.67$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.673946.2%18 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc22a…a35cbacked Phoenix Mercury21c166.67$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358138.3%31 W · 50 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Phoenix Mercury27c160$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7432540.3%131 W · 194 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb75b…e377backed Phoenix Mercury10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+50.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked New York Liberty72c139.84$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.845863.8%37 W · 21 L-0.2wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x387d…e8cfbacked Phoenix Mercury21c137.95$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9770%0 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked New York Liberty49c134$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.3134753.9%187 W · 160 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Phoenix Mercury31c133.88$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8831448.4%152 W · 162 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed New York Liberty57c133.29$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.1832750.2%164 W · 163 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.