WNBA · resolved market
New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 176.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9253411bed798916f6afa0e9eee452d064f58ac2e37717a3e10a91646f226d25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf070…ac55backed Over | 51c | 23,828$12,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,698.22 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 49c | 18,791$9,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,207.38 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 5,495$2,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,820.92 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 48c | 4,785$2,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,290.07 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…5032backed Under | 51c | 3,950$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…8b21backed Over | 52c | 3,634$1,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,735.77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…0eb4backed Under | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 49c | 2,896$1,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,429.37 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 2,559$1,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295.52 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 51c | 1,001$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.51 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 77c | 982.47$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.42 | 449 | 15.6%70 W · 379 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 50c | 897.43$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.72 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 44c | 878.16$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.92 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Under | 49c | 806.61$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.24 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe8…2cbabacked Over | 50c | 790$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe73…7d93backed Under | 58c | 726.51$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.1 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 51c | 706.77$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.26 | 203 | 40.9%83 W · 120 L | -16.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Over | 32c | 699.74$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.82 | 367 | 50.7%186 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ef…b630backed Over | 41c | 606.51$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.84 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Over | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb75b…e377backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 48c | 384.13$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.42 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…583cbacked Over | 51c | 376$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.24 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Under | 49c | 363$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.87 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 50c | 361$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.5 | 164 | 50%82 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 58c | 340$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.2 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…e25dbacked Under | 65c | 306.38$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ff…8a60backed Over | 48c | 299.98$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.99 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 50c | 290.06$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.03 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 49c | 289.18$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.48 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…a295backed Under | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 50c | 263.06$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.53 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Under | 50c | 250.5$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.25 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Under | 67c | 243.99$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.78 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 30c | 218$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.44 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 52c | 211.55$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf5…d359backed Under | 48c | 209.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…3ef8backed Over | 51c | 170$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e8…fafcbacked Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Under | 49c | 132.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Under | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 161 | 53.4%86 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 49c | 102.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd3…0e24backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…6f98backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe72…900fbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 87.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 49c | 84.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Under | 49c | 76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 68c | 72.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 48c | 53.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Under | 49c | 52.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 74 | 70.3%52 W · 22 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 47c | 48.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab1…638bbacked Under | 75c | 45.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x118d…d432backed Over | 52c | 45.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 51c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1957…0e20backed Over | 51c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 59c | 37.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked Over | 49c | 34.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Over | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 49c | 30.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 260 | 54.6%142 W · 118 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 52c | 27.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 237 | 46.4%110 W · 127 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Over | 50c | 26.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7636backed Under | 53c | 26.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 52c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Over | 54c | 23.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…1098backed Over | 51c | 20.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd54…b7aebacked Under | 51c | 20.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ae…5310backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 176.5this page
- New York Liberty vs. Phoenix MercuryNew York Liberty won
- New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 174.5Over won
- New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 175.5Over won
- Sabrina Ionescu: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Spread: New York Liberty (-2.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.