WNBA · resolved market
New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 175.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef5ac9775c82f1e49026c11d7c918e43373d00e43584a0cb36a9b57bb52a6821
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x684b…8409backed Under | 46c | 20,000$9,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,199.99 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…ac55backed Over | 54c | 19,200$10,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,832.11 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 3,540$1,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,736.81 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Over | 57c | 2,593$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.23 | 367 | 50.7%186 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 54c | 2,586$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.56 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 49c | 2,551$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.38 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 47c | 2,124$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.15 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99d6…513fbacked Under | 47c | 1,636$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.85 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 50cpaid | +78%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 49c | 1,306$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.69 | 203 | 40.9%83 W · 120 L | -16.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 1,237$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.3 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 54c | 960.54$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.85 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Under | 48c | 903.21$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.68 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under | 46c | 869.57$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 55c | 832.07$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.43 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 51c | 771.16$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.72 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 578.78$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.65 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 49c | 562.68$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.79 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 54c | 514$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.54 | 269 | 53.2%143 W · 126 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 46c | 496.4$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.34 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 62c | 480.18$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.89 | 449 | 15.6%70 W · 379 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…5032backed Under | 48c | 465.05$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.2 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 444.23$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.12 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 47c | 427.2$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.27 | 303 | 47.2%143 W · 160 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ef…b630backed Over | 41c | 382.13$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.46 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…428abacked Under | 48c | 356.42$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 46c | 305.09$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.95 | 237 | 46.4%110 W · 127 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed Over | 47c | 221.68$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.69 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1538…8676backed Over | 53c | 189.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Under | 50c | 186.94$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf5…d359backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3c…9320backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 52c | 182.19$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.86 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 49c | 152.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.61 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 49c | 149.8$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 36c | 147.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 47c | 130.7$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.08 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Under | 47c | 120.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b66…8501backed Over | 53c | 110.28$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d18…2365backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 46c | 86.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 192 | 57.3%110 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Under | 46c | 82.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Over | 56c | 74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Over | 54c | 73.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 46c | 73.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x193b…f6ecbacked Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 48c | 57.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 44c | 44.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Over | 47c | 40.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 173 | 43.9%76 W · 97 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x118d…d432backed Over | 53c | 37.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Over | 54c | 36.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 74 | 70.3%52 W · 22 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 47c | 35.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Under | 48c | 32.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ec…f645backed Under | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Under | 46c | 31.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…7192backed Under | 47c | 31.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 47c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 133 | 55.6%74 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 46c | 28.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 260 | 54.6%142 W · 118 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 54c | 27.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Over | 57c | 24.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Over | 55c | 24.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…d3dbbacked Under | 52c | 21.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 50c | 21.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Under | 50c | 21.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over | 54c | 20.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 54c | 18.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 175.5this page
- New York Liberty vs. Phoenix MercuryNew York Liberty won
- New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 174.5Over won
- New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 176.5Over won
- Sabrina Ionescu: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Spread: New York Liberty (-2.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.