WNBA · resolved market
New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 174.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8828f23c9de4dee45a220080ab2914e2b63175105a68a588c047371ba632cf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Over | 57c | 2,375$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.37 | 367 | 50.7%186 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 38c | 2,115$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.29 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 54c | 1,717$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.54 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb75b…e377backed Over | 59c | 999.99$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…5032backed Over | 53c | 999.99$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 46c | 999.68$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.35 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 51c | 991.97$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.87 | 214 | 46.3%99 W · 115 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 60c | 964.72$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.68 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…301cbacked Under | 61c | 780.24$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.93 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 41c | 710.9$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.37 | 321 | 50.2%161 W · 160 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 702.41$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.29 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 46c | 665.87$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.85 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 46c | 590.99$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.54 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…f595backed Under | 40c | 556.57$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Under | 45c | 555$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.75 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…cadebacked Over | 35c | 527.83$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.52 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 44c | 512$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.28 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 42c | 500.33$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.94 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 500.15$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.06 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Under | 45c | 498.36$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 285 | 58.6%167 W · 118 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 19c | 488.35$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.34 | 347 | 26.5%92 W · 255 L | -20.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Under | 43c | 391$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.13 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Over | 57c | 354.92$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.68 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc820…49debacked Under | 68c | 323.53$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c26…d474backed Over | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 57c | 276.95$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.09 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 47c | 234.06$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 12c | 219.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Over | 79c | 205.54$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…a295backed Over | 54c | 183.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.73 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 43c | 174$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…63d8backed Over | 60c | 167.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.63 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 42c | 166.53$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.69 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5923…04b8backed Over | 53c | 153.41$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d2…c938backed Over | 56c | 141.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 55c | 140$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 53c | 131.61$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.31 | 314 | 48.4%152 W · 162 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0938…a9a8backed Under | 43c | 130.93$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 10c | 128$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa560…767dbacked Over | 45c | 120$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 56c | 111$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 364 | 54.1%197 W · 167 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 55c | 111$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…f6d7backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…3ef8backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d18…2365backed Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 54c | 99.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 39c | 92.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 40c | 76.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Under | 40c | 73.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 47c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 54c | 61.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 45c | 56.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 63c | 55.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | +15.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Under | 44c | 49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 62c | 47.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 65c | 46.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 192 | 57.3%110 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118d…d432backed Over | 57c | 41.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Under | 45c | 40.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 239 | 55.2%132 W · 107 L | +12.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 67c | 37.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 133 | 55.6%74 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 55c | 35.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6af…c64abacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Under | 39c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ec…f645backed Under | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd3…0e24backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 46c | 29.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Over | 50c | 28.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 58c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 174.5this page
- New York Liberty vs. Phoenix MercuryNew York Liberty won
- New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 175.5Over won
- New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 176.5Over won
- Sabrina Ionescu: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Spread: New York Liberty (-2.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.