TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9ccf…ef8a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
98
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 58 out of 100; worst Tweets at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
WNBAlast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT4763.8%30 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
WNBA — the 47 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wingsbacked Dallas Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$9.84
Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercurybacked Atlanta Dream · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$8.99
Portland Fire vs. Toronto Tempobacked Portland Fire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Golden State Valkyries vs. Chicago Skybacked Golden State Valkyries · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyriesbacked Golden State Valkyries · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$40.11
Portland Fire vs. Phoenix Mercurybacked Phoenix Mercury · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mysticsbacked Washington Mystics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+37%+$36.99
Portland Fire vs. Seattle Stormbacked Seattle Storm · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Dallas Wings vs. Indiana Feverbacked Indiana Fever · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+35.3%+$88.17
Atlanta Dream vs. Washington Mysticsbacked Washington Mystics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$26.06
Toronto Tempo vs. PortlandFirebacked Toronto Tempo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Chicago Skybacked Los Angeles Sparks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
Dallas Wings vs. Washington Mysticsbacked Washington Mystics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$63.75
Phoenix Mercury vs. Chicago Skybacked Phoenix Mercury · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+126.7%+$63.37
Indiana Fever vs. Minnesota Lynxbacked Minnesota Lynx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$25.76
New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercurybacked Phoenix Mercury · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Skybacked Las Vegas Aces · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Connecticut Sun vs. Washington Mysticsbacked Washington Mystics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$40.85
Team Spoon vs. Team Coopbacked Team Spoon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+45.5%+$45.49
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Dallas Wingsbacked Dallas Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$26.58
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempobacked Atlanta Dream · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+25%+$25
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mysticsbacked Washington Mystics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spread: Chicago Sky (-3.5)backed Seattle Storm · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Washington Mystics vs. Toronto Tempobacked Washington Mystics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$28.96
Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynxbacked Minnesota Lynx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$42.86
Showing 25 of 47 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT1681.3%13 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick63cpaid+29.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will England win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$51.52
Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$22.63
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+33.8%+$11.82
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$19.7
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$13.18
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Brazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Canada vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+37%+$47.83
Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Egypt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$5.97
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advancebacked Brazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$5.83
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$5.63
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$11.96
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+32.1%+$14.77
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$11.67
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$21.25
All 16 picks, newest first.
Tennislast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT1275%9 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cincinnati Open: Tereza Valentova vs Elina Svitolinabacked Elina Svitolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$26.58
Cincinnati Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Xiyu Wangbacked Leylah Fernandez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Cincinnati Open: Alexander Zverev vs Cameron Norriebacked Alexander Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$28.21
Cincinnati Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Jakub Mensikbacked Jakub Mensik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$29.87
Cincinnati Open: Novak Djokovic vs Thiago Agustin Tirantebacked Novak Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.84
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jan Choinskibacked Thiago Agustin Tirante · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$49.25
Cincinnati Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Miomir Kecmanovicbacked Miomir Kecmanovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$35.14
National Bank Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ben Sheltonbacked Ben Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$17.57
National Bank Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguetbacked Brandon Nakashima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$28.21
National Bank Open: Mariano Navone vs Arthur Filsbacked Arthur Fils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$31.58
Canadian Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Gael Monfilsbacked Kamil Majchrzak · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Canadian Open: Alex Michelsen vs Jan-Lennard Struffbacked Alex Michelsen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$51.52
All 12 picks, newest first.
Tweetslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-43.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+25.2%+$25.17
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.23
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+36.7%+$36.72
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+70.3%+$70.32
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+30.4%+$30.4
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
All 10 picks, newest first.
UFClast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-64.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.48
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.7
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$7.35
All 4 picks, newest first.
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+77.9%+$38.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLBlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Philliesbacked Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$6.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-08-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weatherlast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on August 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.