TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

National Bank Open: Mariano Navone vs Arthur Fils

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Arthur Filsof Mariano Navone, Arthur Fils
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$368,713
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$432,645

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $368,713 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8bfe…2d74backed Arthur Fils76c76,528$58,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,258.297969.6%55 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Mariano Navone23c33,333$7,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,666.5975046.8%351 W · 399 L+0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Mariano Navone1c25,903$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.691,2058%96 W · 1,109 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+80.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed Arthur Fils76c22,200$16,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,327.996070%42 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick70cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6340…e272backed Mariano Navone24c21,096$5,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,029.8916948.5%82 W · 87 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9449…d829backed Mariano Navone0c19,675$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.35267.7%2 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Mariano Navone25c18,988$4,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,74730335.3%107 W · 196 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Mariano Navone21c10,191$2,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,091.744,12644.6%1,842 W · 2,284 L+13.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Mariano Navone24c10,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40052744.6%235 W · 292 L+30.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xacf8…e791backed Mariano Navone24c8,159$1,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,958.1932737.3%122 W · 205 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdc3…c0eabacked Arthur Fils76c7,500$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,80013363.9%85 W · 48 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Mariano Navone24c5,981$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,435.4131736.9%117 W · 200 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Mariano Navone7c5,643$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.428,72636.2%3,161 W · 5,565 L-187.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Arthur Fils78c4,956$3,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,090.4165459%386 W · 268 L-31.7wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4301…ac39backed Mariano Navone25c4,415$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12119041.6%79 W · 111 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Mariano Navone24c3,507$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.693,54142.4%1,501 W · 2,040 L-44.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2073…385bbacked Arthur Fils73c2,860$2,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.918042.5%34 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c0c…a55dbacked Arthur Fils77c2,776$2,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.0822965.9%151 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75a7…2d61backed Mariano Navone18c1,946$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.371725.2%181 W · 536 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x459b…f771backed Arthur Fils77c1,938$1,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.9450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Mariano Navone2c1,478$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.211,01336.5%370 W · 643 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Arthur Fils76c1,316$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.7993168.1%634 W · 297 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c98…f4f4backed Arthur Fils76c1,316$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.792751.9%14 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3622…3facbacked Arthur Fils77c1,284$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.426867.6%46 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cf3…eb8ebacked Mariano Navone24c1,231$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.252231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+25.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc72…c9d0backed Arthur Fils76c1,224$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.853748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Mariano Navone24c1,154$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.861,69248.8%826 W · 866 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26f2…4c29backed Mariano Navone4c1,045$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.158326.5%22 W · 61 L+8.0wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+72.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Mariano Navone26c1,038$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.571,14346.4%530 W · 613 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Arthur Fils79c1,035$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.424,64749.3%2,291 W · 2,356 L+159.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Mariano Navone21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2109,23144.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L-241.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5deb…ccddbacked Mariano Navone23c924.39$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.1972147.3%341 W · 380 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x545d…c122backed Mariano Navone25c911.92$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.9846030.4%140 W · 320 L-18.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee4a…ad4cbacked Mariano Navone1c833.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110138.6%39 W · 62 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4dd2…9014backed Mariano Navone24c833.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010954.1%59 W · 50 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d47…64eebacked Mariano Navone25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007728.6%22 W · 55 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b96…cea8backed Mariano Navone18c684.78$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1255534.5%19 W · 36 L+6.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+50.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f26…c83bbacked Mariano Navone23c673.99$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.0210234.3%35 W · 67 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bae…e6c5backed Mariano Navone15c673.1$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4317818%32 W · 146 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-39.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7bf…b02dbacked Arthur Fils76c657.89$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.8959065.4%386 W · 204 L-16.3wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x018b…5372backed Arthur Fils78c641.03$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.036662.1%41 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Arthur Fils79c639.99$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.462,69647.9%1,292 W · 1,404 L+46.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd325…2482backed Mariano Navone3c629.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.899433%31 W · 63 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88ce…cb62backed Mariano Navone26c627.8$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.071844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18b6…babfbacked Arthur Fils76c611.71$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.8114459%85 W · 59 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc81…e889backed Mariano Navone25c610.36$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.5917842.7%76 W · 102 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x162d…8944backed Mariano Navone27c555.56$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15013134.4%45 W · 86 L+13.5wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+25.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x541c…a7ecbacked Mariano Navone16c479.75$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.57825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-43.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x237f…362ebacked Mariano Navone13c438.68$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.397440.5%30 W · 44 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Arthur Fils77c427.25$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.272,14454.2%1,162 W · 982 L-1.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a62…4ab9backed Mariano Navone24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014536.6%53 W · 92 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Mariano Navone20c414.99$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.755941.9%234 W · 325 L-27.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17af…b7e4backed Mariano Navone25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10029348.5%142 W · 151 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4b2…1c67backed Arthur Fils76c399.99$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9614858.8%87 W · 61 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Mariano Navone25c399.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9935038.3%134 W · 216 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed Mariano Navone23c365.14$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.418829.8%56 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Mariano Navone13c363.84$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.751,88048.5%912 W · 968 L+8.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Mariano Navone14c334$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.764,88238.8%1,892 W · 2,990 L-17.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc276…9a38backed Mariano Navone12c333.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402737%10 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+56%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf17a…b0b7backed Arthur Fils78c316.13$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.7710677.4%82 W · 24 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb550…2799backed Mariano Navone24c312.5$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759046.7%42 W · 48 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+23.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Mariano Navone24c300$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722,21242.9%948 W · 1,264 L+34.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Mariano Navone25c280$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702,57546.4%1,195 W · 1,380 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e03…aa34backed Mariano Navone25c277.64$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.412642.3%11 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x95c5…d5d3backed Arthur Fils73c275$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.2560158.6%352 W · 249 L+2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Mariano Navone12c270$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.44,58448.3%2,215 W · 2,369 L+35.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Mariano Navone25c265.4$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.354,15952.8%2,198 W · 1,961 L+66.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe233…14a3backed Arthur Fils76c263.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1638356.9%218 W · 165 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Mariano Navone24c255.98$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.441,54551.5%795 W · 750 L+5.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd179…74adbacked Mariano Navone24c250$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6028556.1%160 W · 125 L+11.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+27.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x521c…f4aabacked Mariano Navone24c250$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6036448.9%178 W · 186 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Mariano Navone19c236.84$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453,20440.5%1,299 W · 1,905 L+28.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Mariano Navone19c236.84$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453,41239.1%1,335 W · 2,077 L-11.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d26…f4f8backed Mariano Navone16c228.58$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378616.3%14 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+37.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa36c…5754backed Mariano Navone24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5042042.6%179 W · 241 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90c7…d6babacked Mariano Navone23c203.26$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.751747.1%8 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Mariano Navone20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x280f…ad6abacked Mariano Navone25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012851.6%66 W · 62 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60af…ccf5backed Arthur Fils75c187.22$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.221866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Mariano Navone22c150$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.41,84244.6%822 W · 1,020 L-15.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe80f…b81bbacked Arthur Fils73c147.45$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8117859%105 W · 73 L-9.9wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3556…af4fbacked Mariano Navone26c139.96$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1527724.9%69 W · 208 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Arthur Fils73c138.88$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.533550.7%170 W · 165 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba58…28c2backed Arthur Fils76c137.29$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9565652.1%342 W · 314 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Arthur Fils74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.141,28760.7%781 W · 506 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2db8…e042backed Arthur Fils76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5874861.9%463 W · 285 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdae…6ad2backed Arthur Fils76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5815756.1%88 W · 69 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ccf…ef8abacked Arthur Fils76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.581275%9 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f64…3633backed Arthur Fils74c130.74$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9999049.4%489 W · 501 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d22…72debacked Mariano Navone26c130$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.81070%7 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick41cpaid+66.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdecf…2957backed Mariano Navone26c125$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.53625%9 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-42.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Mariano Navone15c123.58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.456,74048.8%3,288 W · 3,452 L+58.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Mariano Navone26c120$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.286635.5%307 W · 559 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea83…e0ccbacked Arthur Fils79c120$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.56560%39 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Arthur Fils80c113$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.61,80258.9%1,062 W · 740 L+5.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e8b…13e6backed Arthur Fils75c110$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.511462.3%71 W · 43 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Mariano Navone18c109.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8885741.7%357 W · 500 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d37…59b5backed Mariano Navone27c104.22$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.049462.8%59 W · 35 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+21.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x74c8…857bbacked Arthur Fils76c103.39$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.811681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick68cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3459…caa6backed Mariano Navone23c102.96$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2426748.7%130 W · 137 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.