TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Atlanta Dream vs. Washington Mystics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Washington Mysticsof Atlanta Dream, Washington Mystics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$220,411
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$221,920

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $220,411 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5dd9…420fbacked Washington Mystics76c26,796$20,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,4311100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Atlanta Dream26c16,693$4,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,280.422626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-43.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Atlanta Dream48c13,650$6,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,614.988159.3%48 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Dream27c11,338$3,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,087.7350646.8%237 W · 269 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Washington Mystics69c10,431$7,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,189.221,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Atlanta Dream32c9,516$3,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,055.0436750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb75b…e377backed Atlanta Dream18c9,252$1,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,673.893748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+50.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Washington Mystics69c6,575$4,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,069.1299548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Washington Mystics78c5,366$4,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,156.638645.9%177 W · 209 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Washington Mystics33c4,704$1,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,151.5640550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Atlanta Dream7c4,421$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.4212144.6%54 W · 67 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce36…2b99backed Atlanta Dream24c4,063$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.69137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick28cpaid-69.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f38…2ab9backed Atlanta Dream24c3,940$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Atlanta Dream45c3,818$1,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,718.187259.7%43 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Washington Mystics63c3,082$1,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.766735.8%24 W · 43 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Mystics65c2,945$1,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.1637141.2%153 W · 218 L-13.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed2d…9af1backed Washington Mystics52c2,900$1,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3921100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Atlanta Dream65c2,869$1,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,878.3483748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85b8…0935backed Atlanta Dream14c2,724$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecd3…8289backed Washington Mystics74c2,095$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Washington Mystics69c2,000$1,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.3232540.3%131 W · 194 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd692…8b9abacked Atlanta Dream25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-61.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Atlanta Dream58c2,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.9812045%54 W · 66 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Atlanta Dream2c1,901$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.844915.6%70 W · 379 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed Atlanta Dream53c1,890$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.686956.5%39 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Mystics75c1,636$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.7889349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Washington Mystics33c1,537$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.277236.1%26 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Washington Mystics77c1,348$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.688748.3%42 W · 45 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x911b…344fbacked Washington Mystics36c1,329$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8453444.1%15 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb209…b744backed Atlanta Dream7c1,205$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.689036.7%33 W · 57 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ec7…2b6bbacked Atlanta Dream45c1,111$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+28.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Washington Mystics69c1,071$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.8419458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Washington Mystics62c1,016$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.7485158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3c66…76cdbacked Washington Mystics35c975.07$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.071275%9 W · 3 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+67.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xad0b…a514backed Atlanta Dream50c788$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39413742.3%58 W · 79 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Mystics77c753.98$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.5632150.2%161 W · 160 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9767…1a16backed Washington Mystics35c715.69$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.696437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Atlanta Dream49c600.08$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.9819428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Washington Mystics37c600$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37810337.9%39 W · 64 L+0.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1d7…47a4backed Washington Mystics37c594.59$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.599549.5%47 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Atlanta Dream5c558.34$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9213024.6%32 W · 98 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Atlanta Dream27c542.52$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.9325246%116 W · 136 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Atlanta Dream13c500$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639214.1%13 W · 79 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Washington Mystics56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22050952.5%267 W · 242 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Washington Mystics73c498.14$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.327732.5%25 W · 52 L-9.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-33.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3a15…0350backed Atlanta Dream67c454.27$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.36728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick60cpaid-49.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Atlanta Dream30c450.06$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13410454.8%57 W · 47 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Atlanta Dream27c442.82$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.3420340.9%83 W · 120 L-16.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x42b7…5cd6backed Atlanta Dream30c433.33$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1303740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Washington Mystics35c426.84$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.294456.8%25 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Atlanta Dream12c412.78$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.234918.3%64 W · 285 L-49.5wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-58.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Washington Mystics36c402.44$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.56425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28e0…2e6bbacked Atlanta Dream48c400$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1923948.7%19 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Washington Mystics33c400$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26832750.2%164 W · 163 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Washington Mystics35c365$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.2528647.9%137 W · 149 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c26…d474backed Atlanta Dream33c346.67$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11612846.1%59 W · 69 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Atlanta Dream27c333.06$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.031030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+91.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Atlanta Dream3c311.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107450%37 W · 37 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe73…7d93backed Washington Mystics36c308.33$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.335242.3%22 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb43e…8200backed Washington Mystics34c303.08$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.033938.5%15 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Atlanta Dream33c300.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.956339.7%25 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe9f…014abacked Atlanta Dream7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-36.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a70…76b5backed Atlanta Dream34c299.25$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.836437.5%24 W · 40 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-24%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Washington Mystics66c296.95$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.877368.5%50 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked Washington Mystics34c294.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.123545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Dream21c293.25$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.771,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed Washington Mystics35c288.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.87829.5%23 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41f7…c4e4backed Atlanta Dream65c282.29$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.743941%16 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Atlanta Dream21c280$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8815250.7%77 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42c7…c415backed Washington Mystics77c275.51$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.712254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Washington Mystics38c274$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.7426953.2%143 W · 126 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed Washington Mystics65c273.62$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.562766.7%18 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked Atlanta Dream10c250$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4120%0 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Washington Mystics78c246.96$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.878556.5%48 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Atlanta Dream61c244.08$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.891573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.20per pick54cpaid+45.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x226b…bb68backed Atlanta Dream19c239.81$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.62395.1%2 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56b4…11adbacked Atlanta Dream29c237$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.783040%12 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x68da…37b5backed Atlanta Dream25c218.56$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.642114.3%3 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-50.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Atlanta Dream7c210.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4e2…0f82backed Washington Mystics34c206.97$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.63857.9%22 W · 16 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+18.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdda3…d55fbacked Atlanta Dream44c199.98$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.993020%6 W · 24 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-53.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd8fa…581fbacked Washington Mystics77c187.99$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.533158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a29…9feebacked Atlanta Dream67c177.73$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x94c1…8036backed Washington Mystics76c174.5$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.551926.3%5 W · 14 L-5.7wins-0.30per pick56cpaid-59.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x584f…54b9backed Atlanta Dream66c174.12$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.9215746.5%73 W · 84 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfe5…1c1cbacked Atlanta Dream66c151.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x34b3…486cbacked Washington Mystics37c150$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+217.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd09…42d9backed Atlanta Dream62c149.95$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.973259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc22a…a35cbacked Washington Mystics39c149.79$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.378138.3%31 W · 50 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76f4…3dc9backed Atlanta Dream68c147.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004067.5%27 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Atlanta Dream31c135.89$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6830649%150 W · 156 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7596…f13abacked Washington Mystics34c132.13$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.132100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+148.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68cb…6872backed Atlanta Dream47c127.92$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603933.3%13 W · 26 L-5.6wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-45.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Atlanta Dream20c119.35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.315453.2%82 W · 72 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Washington Mystics76c115$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5437650.3%189 W · 187 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Atlanta Dream26c114$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9734753.9%187 W · 160 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6f7…c7a2backed Atlanta Dream64c109.38$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705853.4%31 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee4a…ad4cbacked Washington Mystics56c107.14$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.142152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+31.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5574…382abacked Atlanta Dream15c104.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ccf…ef8abacked Washington Mystics75c104.24$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.064763.8%30 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.