Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb45a0f765b7162236610e306c9d90858cddb8a502fd47883d5d51d9bdae28abb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $172,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 0c | 44,908$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d8…8dd3backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 71c | 7,635$5,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,205.15 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked No | 37c | 4,548$1,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,690.99 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 25c | 4,361$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 74c | 4,118$3,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.75 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 73c | 3,084$2,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.43 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 48c | 2,427$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.86 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 55c | 2,038$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.56 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 47c | 1,999$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.71 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 75c | 1,838$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.03 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 53c | 1,822$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.01 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 32c | 1,585$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.12 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes | 75c | 1,443$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.31 | 200 | 9%18 W · 182 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +173%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 17c | 1,439$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.7 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 35c | 1,201$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.18 | 124 | 9.7%12 W · 112 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 61c | 1,189$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.67 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0a…08e8backed Yes | 80c | 1,182$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.65 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 50c | 1,109$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.09 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked Yes | 69c | 1,102$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.67 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 66c | 1,093$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.56 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 29c | 1,080$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.35 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 29c | 958.33$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.65 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 893.8$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.51 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f1…8232backed Yes | 56c | 888.71$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…f36abacked Yes | 66c | 831.32$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.72 | 192 | 29.2%56 W · 136 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…746dbacked Yes | 78c | 812.45$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.67 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 54c | 739.35$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.74 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f5…c7c6backed Yes | 64c | 702.49$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.37 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 36c | 690.9$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.12 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes | 59c | 663.53$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.53 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 19c | 602.54$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.59 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 74c | 599.99$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.06 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 62c | 574.21$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.68 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 28c | 574$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 539.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.1 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 535.98$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.91 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x625b…3a3ebacked Yes | 68c | 524.87$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.87 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes | 59c | 509.34$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.34 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…d60dbacked Yes | 69c | 490.87$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.29 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…fb27backed Yes | 66c | 457.94$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.94 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes | 58c | 453.05$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.28 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb86…dc7bbacked Yes | 63c | 445.11$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.58 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…6825backed Yes | 74c | 426.97$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b54…353cbacked Yes | 72c | 412.15$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.47 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 58c | 411.62$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2b…b91fbacked Yes | 66c | 407.54$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 59c | 403.1$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.45 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 59c | 402.15$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.07 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca2…20e6backed Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 397.21$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.75 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 65c | 387.01$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.45 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 32c | 378.82$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.01 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 64c | 378.01$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.05 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 26c | 376.63$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.78 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…c9adbacked No | 57c | 349.59$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.27 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 55c | 344.58$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.38 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 57c | 342$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.65 | 267 | 22.8%61 W · 206 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 49c | 339.14$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.92 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…d68abacked Yes | 62c | 311.05$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.95 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 61c | 304.79$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.44 | 149 | 13.4%20 W · 129 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 51c | 300$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.5 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…f6e8backed No | 46c | 295.47$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.98 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 22c | 286.93$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 73c | 272.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes | 46c | 257.34$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.07 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…9457backed Yes | 61c | 257$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.93 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked No | 24c | 254$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 27c | 253.58$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.05 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed No | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.92 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 59c | 232.52$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.52 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 36c | 231.2$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.11 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a6…cca7backed Yes | 66c | 230.24$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.3 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 64c | 229.41$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…e26cbacked No | 44c | 227.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 23c | 224.94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacfe…b2fabacked Yes | 49c | 212$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.85 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4964…4fddbacked Yes | 69c | 200.03$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…6422backed Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked No | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…0f2ebacked Yes | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd5…4624backed Yes | 75c | 190.6$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 50c | 188.32$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.71 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed No | 36c | 188.16$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.63 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0d3ebacked No | 52c | 182.35$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 65c | 178.22$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.01 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4a…fc9bbacked Yes | 60c | 178.15$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes | 54c | 178.14$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.14 | 244 | 23.8%58 W · 186 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 40c | 175$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.34 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…4ae3backed Yes | 76c | 170.6$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…fae3backed Yes | 60c | 170$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 64c | 166.68$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked No | 53c | 166.62$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.23 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked No | 41c | 163.81$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaae4…aa62backed No | 34c | 159.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +197.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 72c | 159.04$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 155$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 32c | 149.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.