TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$267,868
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$215,818

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $267,868 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes0c61,764$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7662539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0124…473abacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes0c14,034$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.81,0608.4%89 W · 971 L+29.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes0c11,050$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0562713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes0c10,722$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1923222.4%52 W · 180 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes0c10,125$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2253817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes2c8,000$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14379711.3%90 W · 707 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes9c4,450$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.391,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes7c4,070$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.0399410.6%105 W · 889 L-30.0wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes1c4,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3836411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b05…8983backed Yes2c3,675$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2512421.8%27 W · 97 L+11.8wins+0.10per pick12cpaid+49.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x881a…ccccbacked Yes1c3,321$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4213235.6%47 W · 85 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes5c2,960$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.651410.5%54 W · 460 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes10c2,932$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.1249919%95 W · 404 L-1.7wins0.00per pick19cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes7c2,880$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.2256329.8%168 W · 395 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes1c2,843$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7415929.6%47 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4262…0ef2backed Yes27c2,336$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6405119.6%10 W · 41 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick20cpaid+69.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes12c2,150$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.5739723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes12c2,058$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.8763021.7%137 W · 493 L+2.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes2c1,949$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4618511.4%21 W · 164 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed Yes8c1,696$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13516941.4%70 W · 99 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1425…d60dbacked Yes15c1,693$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.4410742.1%45 W · 62 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92f1…8232backed Yes33c1,496$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-40.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes7c1,036$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9418616.1%30 W · 156 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes1c1,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1462412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes5c963.02$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.334835.4%17 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-12.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes10c867.05$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8465311%72 W · 581 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes19c771.54$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.1542424.5%104 W · 320 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes29c696.68$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.7553222.7%121 W · 411 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b54…353cbacked Yes27c660.72$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.581136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-14.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb816…9e90backed Yes6c650.48$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.86033.3%20 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+74.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes14c557.75$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.651249.7%12 W · 112 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-59.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0479…6422backed Yes18c554.98$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.355022%11 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes8c522$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4887917.2%151 W · 728 L+2.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes10c521.43$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.951,04013.7%142 W · 898 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes3c500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1428016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No72c458.42$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.22,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc622…e1a4backed Yes3c425.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.515433.3%18 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes28c411.51$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.056540%26 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes15c400$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5917335.3%61 W · 112 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes5c371.11$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.925588.2%46 W · 512 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes5c349.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.557420.9%120 W · 454 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes9c301.76$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0915128.5%43 W · 108 L+0.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes27c299.99$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8132016.6%53 W · 267 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2bf…66c7backed Yes19c298.96$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.899628.1%27 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9772…a7e0backed Yes8c265$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.456336.5%23 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08d9…80a4backed Yes28c250.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+67.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe50e…45c5backed No73c249.98$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.646939.1%27 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4219…6e2cbacked Yes9c229.69$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.676325.4%16 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes17c221.9$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3931224.7%77 W · 235 L-0.5wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No71c214$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.6421959.8%131 W · 88 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed No78c208.83$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1417419%33 W · 141 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014513.8%20 W · 125 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-34.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f6c…36abbacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467826.9%21 W · 57 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1687618.4%161 W · 715 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…6825backed Yes7c198.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.07366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes19c181.33$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4516716.2%27 W · 140 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes18c135$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.921222.2%47 W · 165 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb5a…1537backed Yes15c128.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6715519.4%30 W · 125 L-0.4wins0.00per pick20cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28cc…0f79backed No79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No66c126.52$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6240519.8%80 W · 325 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No73c110$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2838648.2%186 W · 200 L+15.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ce0…82d6backed Yes28c100.18$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.634226.2%11 W · 31 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-35.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0670…09c7backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.862722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes21c99.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120723.7%49 W · 158 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad0c…df3cbacked No76c99.93$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9828034.3%96 W · 184 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032f…057ebacked Yes19c90.35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.17520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14a6…cca7backed Yes24c77.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.735738.6%22 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26bc…6b72backed Yes22c68.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+74.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7374…38ffbacked No80c65.12$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0211359.3%67 W · 46 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe608…f6e8backed No77c56.72$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.137252.8%38 W · 34 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7072…e65cbacked Yes25c55.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes25c55.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0332613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0862…9a02backed Yes23c49.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6911024.5%27 W · 83 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35d6…b907backed No75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc2b…b91fbacked Yes28c39.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.88850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d07…4010backed Yes33c34.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.558236.6%30 W · 52 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86dd…1af2backed No75c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.62972.4%21 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+24.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ca5…80f5backed No75c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.61450%7 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda4c…fffdbacked No70c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92450%12 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b9b…5bb9backed No74c28.38$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb35…4bc3backed No76c26.23$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.233100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed No73c25.64$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0234425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No75c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2510052%52 W · 48 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1a9…07ffbacked No73c18.85$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.092356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.