Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x832e42e245df9d45defe3cc4fb33f4909bea1f3fb537192fdc2dd55801d23a13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $169,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 233 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 28c | 12,339$3,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,434.48 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 22c | 4,578$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.15 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 79c | 3,823$3,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.39 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed Yes | 25c | 3,775$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.2 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 26c | 3,095$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.98 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 16c | 2,675$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.8 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 21c | 2,537$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.17 | 161 | 22.4%36 W · 125 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 24c | 2,271$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.58 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 27c | 2,224$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.68 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 22c | 2,170$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.59 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,903$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.49 | 405 | 19.8%80 W · 325 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…935fbacked No | 76c | 1,785$1,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.93 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,758$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.13 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 14c | 1,726$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.07 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 75c | 1,675$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.22 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes | 13c | 1,507$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.01 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 26c | 1,453$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.59 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 1,412$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.08 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,400$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.39 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 22c | 1,335$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.13 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 63c | 1,287$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.73 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d8…8dd3backed Yes | 16c | 1,226$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.42 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 34c | 1,189$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.67 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…c5d4backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 55c | 1,000$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.76 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 20c | 974.49$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.35 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 15c | 931.52$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.64 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 78c | 929.94$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.42 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…319bbacked Yes | 19c | 909.17$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.54 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 46c | 901.43$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.81 | 270 | 24.4%66 W · 204 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 21c | 900$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 891.37$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.85 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…d03fbacked Yes | 29c | 824.13$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…b15abacked Yes | 40c | 820.21$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x292f…918dbacked Yes | 29c | 805.57$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.5 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…1ec5backed No | 73c | 801.88$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.09 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed No | 74c | 799.99$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.83 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ce…1f2abacked Yes | 28c | 750.81$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4982…fe01backed Yes | 29c | 736.22$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.02 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 24c | 733.12$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.22 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…2bcfbacked No | 77c | 676.92$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.06 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…6422backed Yes | 21c | 672.48$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.17 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 19c | 660.85$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.05 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 20c | 660$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.31 | 197 | 31%61 W · 136 L | +13.8wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed No | 72c | 655.57$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.6 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes | 35c | 631.49$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.6 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 630.83$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.14 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes | 32c | 629.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 8c | 600$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…07ffbacked Yes | 17c | 599.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.16 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 596.95$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.87 | 386 | 48.2%186 W · 200 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 16c | 593.21$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.49 | 267 | 22.8%61 W · 206 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…e21ebacked Yes | 18c | 573.92$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 19c | 573.78$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.67 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7621…11aabacked Yes | 32c | 570.54$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 34c | 550$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.28 | 826 | 14.9%123 W · 703 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 40c | 520.46$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.34 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 63c | 512.65$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.71 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d55…cd90backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 57c | 497.98$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.42 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes | 18c | 493.35$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 27c | 475.36$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.15 | 186 | 16.1%30 W · 156 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b54…353cbacked Yes | 13c | 465.9$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.92 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 31c | 449.54$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.27 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 18c | 442.87$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.34 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…a070backed Yes | 17c | 440$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…f36abacked Yes | 27c | 433.32$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.55 | 192 | 29.2%56 W · 136 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2b…b91fbacked Yes | 23c | 428.4$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 22c | 410.25$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.2 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 79c | 410$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 65c | 400$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 124 | 29%36 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 400$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.46 | 308 | 54.9%169 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed No | 64c | 399.99$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 66c | 399.99$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4645…59babacked No | 77c | 399.98$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.99 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…5762backed No | 60c | 399.96$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.98 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 24c | 397.39$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4219…6e2cbacked Yes | 19c | 383.19$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.17 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 20c | 382.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.61 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed No | 80c | 381.7$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.79 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 73c | 377.19$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 124 | 9.7%12 W · 112 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes | 19c | 366.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.84 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…b6adbacked Yes | 38c | 365.58$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.85 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 39c | 360.1$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.44 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…80dabacked Yes | 38c | 356.47$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes | 25c | 353.27$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 18c | 345.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 281 | 11%31 W · 250 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 23c | 341.06$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 59c | 340.35$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.95 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 17c | 336$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f5…c7c6backed Yes | 16c | 329.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…a34dbacked Yes | 31c | 322.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 16c | 322.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed No | 49c | 311.59$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.67 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 73c | 309.35$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.28 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cd…227dbacked No | 64c | 307.8$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.55 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +233%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 23c | 302.53$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.34 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 22c | 300$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.