TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Los Angeles Sparks vs. Dallas Wings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dallas Wingsof Los Angeles Sparks, Dallas Wings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$165,951
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$179,037

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,951 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6820…1c19backed Los Angeles Sparks32c46,905$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,0003455.9%19 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Dallas Wings76c19,075$14,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,568.31,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Los Angeles Sparks22c11,731$2,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,543.7427449.6%136 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Dallas Wings77c4,669$3,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.061,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2203…84e6backed Los Angeles Sparks17c4,500$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.49185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick20cpaid-77.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Dallas Wings78c4,469$3,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.1740550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Dallas Wings79c4,028$3,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.817946.4%83 W · 96 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x78cc…a081backed Dallas Wings79c3,752$2,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.9850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce36…2b99backed Los Angeles Sparks25c3,709$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.97137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick28cpaid-69.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xacf8…e791backed Los Angeles Sparks27c3,637$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.674829.2%14 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Dallas Wings74c3,312$2,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867.7424852.4%130 W · 118 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Dallas Wings67c2,353$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.2150646.8%237 W · 269 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Dallas Wings74c2,215$1,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.6310340.8%42 W · 61 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Dallas Wings74c2,151$1,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.7715741.4%65 W · 92 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Los Angeles Sparks19c1,881$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.96933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid+54.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Dallas Wings64c1,796$1,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.929354.8%51 W · 42 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Los Angeles Sparks17c1,559$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.2650952.5%267 W · 242 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…884ebacked Los Angeles Sparks23c1,494$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.641145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Sparks20c1,453$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.8683748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Dallas Wings76c1,286$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.8899548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15e9…939ebacked Los Angeles Sparks24c1,264$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Dallas Wings73c1,250$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.58551.8%44 W · 41 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabe0…5adbbacked Dallas Wings79c1,224$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.028061.3%49 W · 31 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Dallas Wings79c1,221$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.4723955.2%132 W · 107 L+12.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5d7…488cbacked Dallas Wings31c1,160$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+219.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Los Angeles Sparks9c1,150$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8634726.5%92 W · 255 L-20.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0182…301cbacked Los Angeles Sparks42c1,126$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.675655.4%31 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe8…ae27backed Dallas Wings78c1,106$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.82366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-6.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Dallas Wings72c1,062$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.3919428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Dallas Wings76c1,058$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.810634.9%37 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8c…ba13backed Los Angeles Sparks25c1,008$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.17520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-74.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0373…4057backed Los Angeles Sparks20c998.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.88733.3%29 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Dallas Wings72c872.23$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.6930347.2%143 W · 160 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f19…474ebacked Dallas Wings47c809.59$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.61735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…5cd6backed Dallas Wings77c808.86$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.943740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc806…57c6backed Dallas Wings50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4002326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b39…1f68backed Dallas Wings50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4002240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5abe…d360backed Dallas Wings50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7049…85a5backed Dallas Wings50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4002842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f95…bf8ebacked Dallas Wings50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23b5…97e1backed Dallas Wings51c800$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.22437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecdb…c4c7backed Los Angeles Sparks20c794.37$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.564546.7%21 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Dallas Wings75c727.81$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.4541147%193 W · 218 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6374…6408backed Dallas Wings48c700$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.22138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Dallas Wings79c656.34$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.7119031.1%59 W · 131 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd7c2…63d8backed Dallas Wings77c646.4$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.4955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Dallas Wings79c641.54$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.5916633.1%55 W · 111 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Dallas Wings73c575.13$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.137431.1%23 W · 51 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-34.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ee8…0db0backed Dallas Wings80c544.5$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.92100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+65.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Dallas Wings73c544$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.3237650.3%189 W · 187 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Los Angeles Sparks20c536$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.224347.7%116 W · 127 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4a0…217abacked Dallas Wings30c500$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3936…6e40backed Dallas Wings28c500$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3601100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bc3…053abacked Los Angeles Sparks21c496.1$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Dallas Wings76c492.95$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.249642.7%41 W · 55 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Los Angeles Sparks4c486.48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.895020%10 W · 40 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2802…347dbacked Dallas Wings48c471$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.711020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-65.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d9a…d10fbacked Dallas Wings48c471$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.711330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-30.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Los Angeles Sparks26c436.42$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.117656.8%100 W · 76 L+12.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Dallas Wings79c428.89$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.1613256.8%75 W · 57 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Los Angeles Sparks25c422.31$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.3785158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc70f…ed45backed Los Angeles Sparks4c409.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe149…ac8cbacked Los Angeles Sparks21c406.9$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852814.3%4 W · 24 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-48.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d09…7fd6backed Los Angeles Sparks25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad2b…2a8ebacked Dallas Wings42c400$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2321030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-44.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2973…ef36backed Dallas Wings42c400$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ba4…f918backed Dallas Wings51c354.84$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.851533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44e…284abacked Dallas Wings51c354.84$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.851533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-24.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Los Angeles Sparks11c332.8$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35908.9%8 W · 82 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed Dallas Wings78c319.74$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.741353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf21…7e3dbacked Dallas Wings65c307.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.983647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+30.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed Dallas Wings76c306.41$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4210538.1%40 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b8d…44b1backed Los Angeles Sparks20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010237.3%38 W · 64 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Dallas Wings80c300$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.522446%103 W · 121 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc820…49debacked Dallas Wings67c298.77$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.775949.2%29 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa55c…1066backed Los Angeles Sparks19c296.68$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.371464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Los Angeles Sparks17c293.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0815654.5%85 W · 71 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed Los Angeles Sparks26c291.38$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.666643.9%29 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+23.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x63df…63d1backed Los Angeles Sparks15c274.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407638.2%29 W · 47 L+8.2wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+35.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xae68…7f0cbacked Los Angeles Sparks24c254.09$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae34…3a8abacked Dallas Wings80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501172.7%8 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick73cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Dallas Wings80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5032750.2%164 W · 163 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Dallas Wings70c246.04$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.620340.9%83 W · 120 L-16.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x864a…7cacbacked Dallas Wings79c244.94$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.441163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Los Angeles Sparks17c222.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.027360.3%44 W · 29 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a86…0079backed Dallas Wings73c216.04$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.452955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4be7…8e91backed Dallas Wings80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2ef…5a1cbacked Los Angeles Sparks22c194$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.688146.9%38 W · 43 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98b2…95fdbacked Los Angeles Sparks23c193.94$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75b4…12b2backed Los Angeles Sparks17c189.12$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…83adbacked Los Angeles Sparks27c186.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.834560%27 W · 18 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaf8c…8f2bbacked Los Angeles Sparks27c184.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.834245.2%19 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Los Angeles Sparks17c176.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.072152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Dallas Wings77c175.62$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.936339.7%25 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Los Angeles Sparks17c163.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7315048%72 W · 78 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3016…9ffdbacked Dallas Wings48c157.16$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.65425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-48%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2561…ce3ebacked Dallas Wings68c146.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.063056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Dallas Wings76c145.62$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.277368.5%50 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6aac…b059backed Dallas Wings80c145.28$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Dallas Wings79c137.2$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8192248.8%450 W · 472 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.