Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb913e95e56e965ce2b4c86a31a80d91edaf8695e2e70ac05667c1433ccd8ea19

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $233,599
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $205,463

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $233,599 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 356 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	37c	22,871$8,359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,358.69	186	16.1%30 W · 156 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6be…a543backed Yes	48c	11,164$5,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,399.97	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5285…1cc5backed No	62c	6,000$3,744 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,255.59	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	39c	5,536$2,167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,166.55	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No	64c	5,006$3,201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,804.93	563	29.8%168 W · 395 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	40c	4,991$2,012 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,012.44	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed No	58c	4,283$2,477 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,805.61	119	26.9%32 W · 87 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes	40c	3,691$1,474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,473.52	65	40%26 W · 39 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	46c	3,664$1,701 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,700.94	532	22.7%121 W · 411 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	42c	3,176$1,330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,329.91	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked No	68c	2,947$1,995 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$951.99	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	27c	2,922$779 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$779.09	405	19.8%80 W · 325 L	-18.3wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	26c	2,908$747 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$746.97	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	30c	2,740$815 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$814.94	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x028d…feccbacked Yes	49c	2,209$1,076 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,076	66	22.7%15 W · 51 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	31c	2,189$673 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$673.13	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No	47c	1,707$807 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$900.01	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x700a…a239backed Yes	59c	1,681$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No	59c	1,614$947 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$666.99	158	44.9%71 W · 87 L	+12.4wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9941…e21ebacked Yes	24c	1,613$391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390.57	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	35c	1,528$542 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$985.72	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x114a…f1d1backed Yes	29c	1,476$428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428.05	38	13.2%5 W · 33 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	70c	1,391$980 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$411.07	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes	1c	1,352$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.36	395	18.7%74 W · 321 L	-57.0wins	-0.14per pick	33cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No	65c	1,266$818 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$448.78	72	56.9%41 W · 31 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	40c	1,247$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$747.12	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No	68c	1,236$842 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$394.53	219	59.8%131 W · 88 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4363…c153backed Yes	36c	1,200$431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430.84	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes	37c	1,150$426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425.55	151	36.4%55 W · 96 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	29c	1,112$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326.37	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	37c	1,091$404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$404.22	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed No	41c	1,089$444 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$644.35	147	51%75 W · 72 L	+18.0wins	+0.12per pick	39cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	7c	1,083$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.21	149	12.8%19 W · 130 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbf3…aaa0backed Yes	28c	1,072$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.93	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	31c	1,071$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.87	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	57c	1,051$598 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$597.51	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x08d9…80a4backed Yes	36c	1,039$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.59	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	+67.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e1a…e20abacked Yes	36c	1,022$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	13c	1,000$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47f3…e493backed Yes	37c	999.98$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.99	97	26.8%26 W · 71 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes	43c	977.39$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.17	35	34.3%12 W · 23 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	32c	950.05$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.81	245	24.9%61 W · 184 L	-13.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-45%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7741…23e6backed Yes	31c	949.21$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.57	69	36.2%25 W · 44 L	+4.1wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x633f…0e01backed Yes	36c	949.16$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.62	92	26.1%24 W · 68 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	24c	924.56$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.51	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes	12c	899.98$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.12	274	17.5%48 W · 226 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	23c	867.83$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.4	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	20c	855.22$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.6	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x713b…f43cbacked Yes	59c	839.99$496 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$496	105	36.2%38 W · 67 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb86…dc7bbacked Yes	40c	832.34$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.71	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+111.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0086…1b8cbacked No	75c	822.63$618 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204.95	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	+145.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes	21c	808.96$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.42	149	28.2%42 W · 107 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc959…c37fbacked Yes	47c	803.24$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	-2.9wins	-0.10per pick	36cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	33c	800$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes	17c	799.99$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x186c…1d32backed No	66c	799.91$528 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$271.97	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No	56c	757.24$424 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$333.67	101	43.6%44 W · 57 L	+4.6wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	33c	732.36$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.71	1,040	13.7%142 W · 898 L	+38.1wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes	28c	722.58$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No	68c	721.43$494 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$227.52	131	61.8%81 W · 50 L	+6.2wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	70c	717.33$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No	71c	711.73$505 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$206.77	73	71.2%52 W · 21 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	73cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed No	71c	703.3$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$203.3	169	41.4%70 W · 99 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes	36c	688.73$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	-3.5wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes	17c	677.85$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.96	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5364…c64dbacked No	68c	660.29$449 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$211.29	151	64.9%98 W · 53 L	+10.2wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes	33c	656.65$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	15c	655.21$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes	50c	655.13$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.37	126	46%58 W · 68 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No	65c	641.78$414 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$227.81	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+14%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes	32c	617.56$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	10c	617$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.99	199	9%18 W · 181 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+174.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed No	48c	614.97$293 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$322.36	876	18.4%161 W · 715 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd76d…9457backed Yes	37c	602.58$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	+2.3wins	+0.08per pick	28cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x913f…c676backed No	58c	600$346 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254	100	43%43 W · 57 L	-7.6wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	53c	591.32$313 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$278.32	386	48.2%186 W · 200 L	+15.7wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed No	57c	558.47$320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$238.58	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x180f…0c07backed No	68c	550$376 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.4	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No	68c	542.4$367 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$175.04	189	49.2%93 W · 96 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a09…3c89backed Yes	47c	520.95$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.54	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83ad…f1c0backed Yes	67c	514.54$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.34	47	19.1%9 W · 38 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No	65c	510$329 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180.75	217	57.6%125 W · 92 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes	16c	505.46$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	107	30.8%33 W · 74 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd928…23cabacked Yes	15c	500$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.48	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…3975backed Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.66	62	40.3%25 W · 37 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	65c	500$327 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$173	186	76.9%143 W · 43 L	+11.9wins	+0.06per pick	70cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	7c	499.99$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd004…d54abacked No	75c	480$360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	84	36.9%31 W · 53 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes	55c	470$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.65	119	32.8%39 W · 80 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	34c	463.85$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.92	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	51c	462.68$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.04	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	48c	458.31$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.84	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb38d…83d6backed No	44c	453.47$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254.98	25	68%17 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	65cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d77…04c9backed Yes	24c	452.73$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.17	138	11.6%16 W · 122 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	22c	449.99$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.28	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x433e…6be1backed Yes	42c	447.21$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	90	24.4%22 W · 68 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b4e…f5e1backed No	65c	439.96$286 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.36	10	90%9 W · 1 L	+1.7wins	+0.17per pick	73cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	38c	439.86$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.38	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7863…ffddbacked Yes	23c	435.73$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event