Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd8c1cf0156efc52bf564253c9cca82530430575248e82b9769c4298d1df865e

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $225,024
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $99,893

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $225,024 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	20,821$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.37	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e9c…2ec7backed Yes	1c	15,211$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192	142	19.7%28 W · 114 L	-11.6wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-46%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	2c	13,438$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.97	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	0c	13,208$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.9	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	8,500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	5,199$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.84	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	4,221$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.21	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x056d…3b69backed Yes	3c	3,655$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.28	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	3,500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	5c	2,500$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	2,391$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.2	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	2,113$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.05	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1df4…d9bdbacked Yes	7c	2,044$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.08	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes	1c	2,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	50	24%12 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	1c	1,898$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.49	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	1,608$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.39	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes	5c	1,500$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	256	17.2%44 W · 212 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	1c	1,498$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	2c	1,469$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.05	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	2c	1,256$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.76	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e1a…e20abacked Yes	1c	1,016$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	1,010$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.8	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	3c	1,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	2c	853.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x652e…4a94backed Yes	2c	738.34$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.87	133	23.3%31 W · 102 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd928…23cabacked Yes	11c	499.92$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.8	47	14.9%7 W · 40 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	5c	491.39$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.8	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	4c	469.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.01	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01da…07bebacked Yes	3c	400$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	143	20.3%29 W · 114 L	+6.9wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+82.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes	15c	399.98$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.82	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	-9.6wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	11c	329.75$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.21	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes	7c	300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	74	10.8%8 W · 66 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x544e…86dcbacked Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0633…5704backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	60	11.7%7 W · 53 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d77…04c9backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	138	11.6%16 W · 122 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0049…6034backed Yes	6c	199.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48a3…bfecbacked Yes	13c	189.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.7	55	10.9%6 W · 49 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fac…3e5abacked Yes	13c	155.49$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.46	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd364…8f8bbacked Yes	13c	130$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.9	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	24.36$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.87	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event