Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f6f79798688fac90132fcf5becf20daa2e64ad17150be881c115e891ca3273e

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $545,501
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $380,158

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $545,501 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 207 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes	0c	88,025$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.56	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	2c	17,958$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.45	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	7c	17,110$1,211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,211.17	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes	3c	14,633$383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382.78	164	27.4%45 W · 119 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	10,044$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.75	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	4c	9,244$411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410.54	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	8,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	6c	6,942$421 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420.77	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	4c	6,868$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.29	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	2c	6,706$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.72	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	6c	6,693$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.77	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b5c…ab00backed Yes	4c	6,612$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.35	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	2c	6,391$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.64	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	6,208$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.88	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	5,594$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.62	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	5,550$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.2	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	3c	5,179$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.83	162	22.2%36 W · 126 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	5c	5,135$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.99	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	2c	5,125$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.75	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	4,992$474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$473.82	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes	4c	4,905$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.99	101	43.6%44 W · 57 L	+4.6wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	6c	4,350$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.39	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	4c	4,064$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.31	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	6c	3,864$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.45	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x114a…f1d1backed Yes	10c	3,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac5f…d808backed Yes	6c	3,000$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.24	46	23.9%11 W · 35 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	2c	2,868$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.45	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	3c	2,835$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.88	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53e1…6a12backed Yes	6c	2,793$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.5	39	28.2%11 W · 28 L	+2.4wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	+14%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	5c	2,767$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.73	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	5c	2,645$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.91	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	15c	2,500$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	2c	2,500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.5	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	5c	2,490$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.64	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	3c	2,469$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.32	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4262…0ef2backed Yes	10c	2,389$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	51	19.6%10 W · 41 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	+69.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	6c	2,346$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.4	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes	4c	2,320$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.19	119	32.8%39 W · 80 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	6c	2,301$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.05	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b24…f36abacked Yes	2c	2,052$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.5	192	29.2%56 W · 136 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	2c	2,000$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.5	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	10c	2,000$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	6c	1,939$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.79	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd7f7…9ed6backed Yes	4c	1,905$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.43	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes	20c	1,882$373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373.22	35	34.3%12 W · 23 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes	1c	1,791$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.45	427	19.2%82 W · 345 L	+23.3wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	6c	1,783$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.41	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	4c	1,766$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.2	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	7c	1,687$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.62	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	4c	1,514$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.39	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	2c	1,500$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.5	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes	2c	1,460$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.52	256	17.2%44 W · 212 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	1,432$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.82	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	15c	1,296$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.79	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes	8c	1,271$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.22	118	47.5%56 W · 62 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes	4c	1,258$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.29	159	29.6%47 W · 112 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x504d…c5a4backed Yes	3c	1,247$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.82	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41d0…e9f5backed Yes	10c	1,212$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.8	33	3%1 W · 32 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	7cpaid	-87.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a6…635dbacked Yes	7c	1,187$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.84	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	1,176$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.24	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	5c	1,152$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.67	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	3c	1,130$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.89	272	24.3%66 W · 206 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	7c	1,110$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.21	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes	2c	1,055$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.4	274	17.5%48 W · 226 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x028d…feccbacked Yes	3c	1,033$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.04	66	22.7%15 W · 51 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86c8…a09dbacked Yes	5c	1,012$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.21	61	23%14 W · 47 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+34.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08d9…80a4backed Yes	15c	1,010$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	+67.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4355…c5d4backed Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	50	14%7 W · 43 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes	2c	1,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.3	101	5%5 W · 96 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	3c	999.99$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47f3…e493backed Yes	2c	999.98$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	97	26.8%26 W · 71 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd928…23cabacked Yes	18c	999.08$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.76	47	14.9%7 W · 40 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fe7…a59bbacked Yes	12c	993.01$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.74	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+2.6wins	+0.26per pick	24cpaid	+100.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes	3c	978.49$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.98	116	43.1%50 W · 66 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	5c	929.44$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.06	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	4c	921.05$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.53	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	8c	908.28$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.64	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58a5…ec93backed No	79c	846$669 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.26	32	84.4%27 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	80cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x652e…4a94backed Yes	2c	844.6$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.48	133	23.3%31 W · 102 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	5c	839.74$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.32	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	5c	838.38$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.44	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	7c	806.99$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.78	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe583…2d98backed Yes	1c	800$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.27	114	21.1%24 W · 90 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes	2c	800$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeabe…d6edbacked Yes	7c	780$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.75	132	24.2%32 W · 100 L	+5.4wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes	7c	768.7$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.71	126	42.9%54 W · 72 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes	8c	763.23$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.62	104	38.5%40 W · 64 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x159f…4043backed Yes	5c	754.62$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	87	21.8%19 W · 68 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	5c	743.56$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.99	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	4c	710.34$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.49	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x623f…53bcbacked Yes	2c	700$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	188	8%15 W · 173 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+86%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes	9c	699.51$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	109	24.8%27 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+38.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	4c	688.08$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.22	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes	8c	676.31$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.69	116	33.6%39 W · 77 L	-7.4wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xffdf…97f8backed Yes	3c	659.72$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.79	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	2c	650$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.15	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes	24c	633.48$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	-3.5wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda11…ba68backed Yes	2c	622.5$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.45	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed Yes	3c	600$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	83	16.9%14 W · 69 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+79.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5734…06babacked Yes	8c	600$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.97	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	+64%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event