TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$117,661
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,334

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,661 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes0c15,000$20 inLost-$202009%18 W · 182 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+173%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes0c7,950$12 inLost-$12.45535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes2c6,635$132 inLost-$132.3219215.6%30 W · 162 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-53.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes0c6,332$16 inLost-$15.662785%14 W · 264 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-89.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes1c5,617$35 inLost-$34.951,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes0c5,050$18 inLost-$17.551863.8%7 W · 179 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes2c2,500$43 inLost-$43.095718.2%47 W · 524 L+1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes1c2,007$25 inLost-$24.888610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes1c1,288$13 inLost-$12.822,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes4c1,266$50 inLost-$50.0323217.7%41 W · 191 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes7c1,125$82 inLost-$81.8425311.5%29 W · 224 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes2c1,100$20 inLost-$19.897828.7%68 W · 714 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d77…04c9backed Yes2c899.98$20 inLost-$20.513811.6%16 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes6c854.59$50 inLost-$49.961,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x652e…4a94backed Yes2c830.76$13 inLost-$12.5313323.3%31 W · 102 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes6c548$31 inLost-$31.3914015.7%22 W · 118 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes8c499.99$40 inLost-$4012914%18 W · 111 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes3c440.01$15 inLost-$14.9419314%27 W · 166 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes3c400$11 inLost-$10.929113.1%38 W · 253 L-0.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x056d…3b69backed Yes3c391.12$12 inLost-$12.055715.8%9 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick16cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes5c300$15 inLost-$157410.8%8 W · 66 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid+14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes6c278.33$17 inLost-$16.74918.4%9 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0633…5704backed Yes8c200$16 inLost-$166011.7%7 W · 53 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48a3…bfecbacked Yes8c189.99$15 inLost-$15.25510.9%6 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes6c175$11 inLost-$10.588017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd364…8f8bbacked Yes8c130$10 inLost-$10.42015%3 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.