Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac5b17243f720192e1928c807ee53b59f82d8f62eb1abb223f642f29f54fbbeb

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $300,289
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $198,053

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $300,289 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes	3c	15,000$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435	164	27.4%45 W · 119 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	12,288$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.17	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes	0c	10,573$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.58	212	20.3%43 W · 169 L	+13.4wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+610.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	10,063$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.14	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes	1c	10,000$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.18	128	10.9%14 W · 114 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	3c	9,624$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.3	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	9,550$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.91	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	9,005$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.45	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8995…8966backed Yes	1c	7,076$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.84	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	1c	6,665$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.86	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	1c	5,366$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.66	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	2c	4,238$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.26	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	1c	4,143$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.94	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	1c	3,732$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.81	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	1c	3,694$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.87	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	3,478$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.19	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	3,453$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.69	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac5f…d808backed Yes	2c	3,009$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.17	46	23.9%11 W · 35 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	2c	2,900$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	11c	2,500$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.67	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	2,231$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.46	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	3c	2,193$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.01	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x35af…94bbbacked Yes	3c	2,018$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.56	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes	1c	2,017$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	50	24%12 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	3c	1,965$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.55	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83ad…f1c0backed Yes	1c	1,942$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.57	47	19.1%9 W · 38 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	3c	1,847$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.16	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	1,698$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.91	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	2c	1,600$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes	1c	1,454$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.43	116	37.1%43 W · 73 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	1c	1,350$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	1c	1,341$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.57	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	4c	1,312$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.09	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	2c	1,060$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.78	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	1,048$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.31	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	3c	981.96$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e1a…e20abacked Yes	4c	980.97$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	974.53$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.02	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes	8c	885.44$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.44	256	17.2%44 W · 212 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	1c	881.82$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	5c	835.28$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.28	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7f7…9ed6backed Yes	2c	725$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.43	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	15c	685.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x504d…c5a4backed Yes	3c	680.42$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x544e…86dcbacked Yes	3c	640$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.02	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes	15c	557.51$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.13	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	539.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.47	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	2c	522.52$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.22	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	129	14%18 W · 111 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	107	10.3%11 W · 96 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd928…23cabacked Yes	16c	500$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.68	47	14.9%7 W · 40 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes	16c	492.91$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	107	30.8%33 W · 74 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	10c	450.66$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.87	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	3c	450.12$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.14	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x652e…4a94backed Yes	4c	304.11$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.15	133	23.3%31 W · 102 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	74	10.8%8 W · 66 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	12c	300$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45a6…69f3backed Yes	14c	300$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-34%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	6c	299.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.3	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes	15c	299.98$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fac…3e5abacked Yes	15c	273.06$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.08	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64cc…0da1backed Yes	13c	230.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	111	18.9%21 W · 90 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	15c	213$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.98	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes	16c	200$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	-9.6wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0633…5704backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	60	11.7%7 W · 53 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5c9…83b5backed Yes	10c	200$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	48	20.8%10 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d77…04c9backed Yes	11c	200$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	138	11.6%16 W · 122 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01da…07bebacked Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	143	20.3%29 W · 114 L	+6.9wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+82.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15c2…fba2backed Yes	9c	199.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	40	20%8 W · 32 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48a3…bfecbacked Yes	14c	190$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.6	55	10.9%6 W · 49 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	15c	132.53$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.08	350	24%84 W · 266 L	-10.5wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd364…8f8bbacked Yes	14c	130$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0086…1b8cbacked Yes	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	+137.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Yes	15c	70$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	347	14.7%51 W · 296 L	+13.8wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event