Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf997fa4e89cbfb7d0142d488a0880c99c120579eee837619fba63b4b9da025b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $403,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $256,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $403,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4355…c5d4backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 5c | 17,899$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.96 | 186 | 16.1%30 W · 156 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 16,368$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.29 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 15,558$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.46 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 1c | 14,283$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.23 | 183 | 4.4%8 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 6c | 13,517$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.74 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,884$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 177 | 17.5%31 W · 146 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 1c | 10,477$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.22 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9994…03ddbacked Yes | 0c | 10,107$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 112 | 4.5%5 W · 107 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 10,039$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 797 | 11.3%90 W · 707 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes | 0c | 8,555$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 199 | 9%18 W · 181 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +174.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 0c | 8,300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes | 2c | 7,922$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.63 | 117 | 4.3%5 W · 112 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 4c | 7,858$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.05 | 324 | 15.7%51 W · 273 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 0c | 6,814$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 552 | 5.6%31 W · 521 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 3c | 6,450$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.64 | 152 | 21.1%32 W · 120 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 3c | 6,239$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.39 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes | 5c | 5,627$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.57 | 119 | 26.9%32 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 9c | 5,241$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.88 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce0…2bb8backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…4edabacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,767$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 278 | 5%14 W · 264 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 6c | 3,850$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.44 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 3,740$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.74 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 4c | 3,706$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.13 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 1c | 2,984$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 216 | 6%13 W · 203 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,970$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 781 | 8.7%68 W · 713 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 10c | 2,900$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.17 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 8c | 2,658$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…2cd8backed Yes | 8c | 2,614$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.81 | 261 | 13.8%36 W · 225 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…8733backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 571 | 8.2%47 W · 524 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…e20abacked Yes | 8c | 2,399$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 2c | 2,151$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 211 | 22.3%47 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,082$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 7c | 2,074$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.97 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 8c | 1,706$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.77 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 7c | 1,662$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.51 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…cd1ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,349$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 8c | 1,288$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.03 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…4375backed Yes | 12c | 1,285$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.19 | 254 | 13.4%34 W · 220 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 3c | 1,269$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 882 | 10.3%91 W · 791 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 1,225$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.34 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,200$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.82 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 5c | 1,118$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 191 | 18.8%36 W · 155 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 3c | 1,114$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 1,036 | 11.1%115 W · 921 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,001$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 558 | 8.2%46 W · 512 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 2c | 994.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa47f…cf75backed Yes | 1c | 932.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 149 | 24.2%36 W · 113 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb86…dc7bbacked Yes | 4c | 900.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 2c | 896.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes | 11c | 885.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…f6e8backed Yes | 4c | 854.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7863…ffddbacked Yes | 3c | 798.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 15c | 797.17$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.68 | 267 | 22.8%61 W · 206 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes | 4c | 730.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 9c | 722$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…5c9bbacked Yes | 4c | 688.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 2c | 681.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 250 | 12.8%32 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 6c | 653.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes | 6c | 651.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…cf59backed Yes | 8c | 627.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 107 | 10.3%11 W · 96 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 2c | 625.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 182 | 4.4%8 W · 174 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 9c | 601.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 11c | 599.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…9475backed Yes | 7c | 580$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 11c | 568.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb816…9e90backed Yes | 6c | 500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd928…23cabacked Yes | 7c | 499.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…2352backed Yes | 9c | 449.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…6931backed Yes | 3c | 436.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 8c | 435.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 405 | 19.8%80 W · 325 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes | 6c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 342 | 3.5%12 W · 330 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…3c89backed Yes | 8c | 388.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4474…876ebacked Yes | 6c | 380.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fac…3e5abacked Yes | 3c | 379.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f5…c7c6backed Yes | 7c | 359.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8f…09cdbacked Yes | 9c | 291.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed Yes | 10c | 284.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 178 | 24.7%44 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d75…0474backed Yes | 13c | 272.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…a070backed Yes | 13c | 264.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339d…06dabacked Yes | 4c | 263.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x580f…e755backed Yes | 15c | 258.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…f36abacked Yes | 6c | 250$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 192 | 29.2%56 W · 136 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 11c | 228.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 9c | 224.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3821…bde6backed Yes | 8c | 220$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…ae4ebacked Yes | 9c | 205.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…8d5cbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 5c | 199.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 5c | 195.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 731 | 15.2%111 W · 620 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…8d4dbacked Yes | 7c | 168.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ca…844abacked Yes | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…052abacked Yes | 15c | 105.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…0359backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.