TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$403,992
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$256,581

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $403,992 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4355…c5d4backed Yes0c20,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305014%7 W · 43 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes5c17,899$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.9618616.1%30 W · 156 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes1c16,368$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.291,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes1c15,558$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.4662713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes1c14,283$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.231834.4%8 W · 175 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+235.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes6c13,517$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.7453222.7%121 W · 411 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes0c10,884$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4217717.5%31 W · 146 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-40.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes1c10,477$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.2251410.5%54 W · 460 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes0c10,107$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131124.5%5 W · 107 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-67.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes1c10,039$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3979711.3%90 W · 707 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes0c8,555$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.811999%18 W · 181 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+174.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes0c8,300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51308.5%11 W · 119 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes2c7,922$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.631174.3%5 W · 112 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes4c7,858$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.0532415.7%51 W · 273 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-62.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes0c6,814$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.955525.6%31 W · 521 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes3c6,450$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.6415221.1%32 W · 120 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes3c6,239$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.391,1908.7%104 W · 1,086 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes5c5,627$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.5711926.9%32 W · 87 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-50.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes9c5,241$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.8833422.2%74 W · 260 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce0…2bb8backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf37b…4edabacked Yes0c5,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-40.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes1c4,767$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.622785%14 W · 264 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-89.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes6c3,850$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.4463021.7%137 W · 493 L+2.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes6c3,740$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.742,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes4c3,706$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.1399410.6%105 W · 889 L-30.0wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes1c2,984$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.692166%13 W · 203 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes1c2,970$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.317818.7%68 W · 713 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d77…04c9backed Yes10c2,900$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.1713811.6%16 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes8c2,658$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20023217.7%41 W · 191 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes8c2,614$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.8126113.8%36 W · 225 L-0.5wins0.00per pick14cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes2c2,500$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.665718.2%47 W · 524 L+1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e1a…e20abacked Yes8c2,399$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-62.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes2c2,151$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9121122.3%47 W · 164 L+0.6wins0.00per pick22cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,082$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.132,1603.9%85 W · 2,075 L+5.9wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes7c2,074$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.9757420.9%120 W · 454 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes8c1,706$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.7787917.2%151 W · 728 L+2.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes7c1,662$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5142424.5%104 W · 320 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfa8…cd1ebacked Yes1c1,349$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1214528.3%41 W · 104 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes8c1,288$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0387618.4%161 W · 715 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes12c1,285$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.1925413.4%34 W · 220 L-0.6wins0.00per pick14cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes3c1,269$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7788210.3%91 W · 791 L-4.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012810.9%14 W · 114 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-61.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes10c1,225$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.3421732.3%70 W · 147 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes10c1,200$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.8239723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes5c1,118$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6719118.8%36 W · 155 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes3c1,114$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.991,03611.1%115 W · 921 L+4.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes4c1,001$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.845588.2%46 W · 512 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47f3…e493backed Yes7c999.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709726.8%26 W · 71 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes2c994.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.831,04013.7%142 W · 898 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa47f…cf75backed Yes1c932.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1314924.2%36 W · 113 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb86…dc7bbacked Yes4c900.53$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.173622.2%8 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+111.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes2c896.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3433231%103 W · 229 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes11c885.93$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9913215.9%21 W · 111 L+0.5wins0.00per pick16cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe608…f6e8backed Yes4c854.72$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.557252.8%38 W · 34 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7863…ffddbacked Yes3c798.27$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-51.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes15c797.17$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.6826722.8%61 W · 206 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes4c730.34$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.272615.4%4 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes9c722$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1914928.2%42 W · 107 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcc…5c9bbacked Yes4c688.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.72130%0 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes2c681.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9225012.8%32 W · 218 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-54.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes6c653.76$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3623222.4%52 W · 180 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes6c651.11$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.054112.2%5 W · 36 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick5cpaid+102.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes8c627.45$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6310710.3%11 W · 96 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+74.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes2c625.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.451824.4%8 W · 174 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes9c601.86$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.845911.3%52 W · 407 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes11c599.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6629227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc55f…9475backed Yes7c580$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.621822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+34.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes11c568.65$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8915817.7%28 W · 130 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb816…9e90backed Yes6c500$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.56033.3%20 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+74.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd928…23cabacked Yes7c499.9$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.984216.7%7 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5e8…2352backed Yes9c449.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes3c436.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2210441.3%43 W · 61 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes8c435.65$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2540519.8%80 W · 325 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes6c400$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223423.5%12 W · 330 L+1.4wins0.00per pick3cpaid+15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a09…3c89backed Yes8c388.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.742740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4474…876ebacked Yes6c380.94$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fac…3e5abacked Yes3c379.15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.12630.8%8 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+25.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x82f5…c7c6backed Yes7c359.71$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.957634.2%26 W · 50 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes8c312.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256026.7%16 W · 44 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes4c300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120723.7%49 W · 158 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec8f…09cdbacked Yes9c291.45$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.872317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes10c284.1$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9817824.7%44 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d75…0474backed Yes13c272.82$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.272951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f43…a070backed Yes13c264.08$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.653423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x339d…06dabacked Yes4c263.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.018123.5%19 W · 62 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x580f…e755backed Yes15c258.46$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.515518.2%10 W · 45 L+0.2wins0.00per pick18cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b24…f36abacked Yes6c250$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7219229.2%56 W · 136 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes11c228.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1835024%84 W · 266 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes9c224.19$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6817419%33 W · 141 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3821…bde6backed Yes8c220$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.12277.4%2 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca20…ae4ebacked Yes9c205.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.544431.8%14 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6763…8d5cbacked Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.215128.5%43 W · 108 L+0.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes5c199.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115249.9%52 W · 472 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes5c195.58$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2973115.2%111 W · 620 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe807…8d4dbacked Yes7c168.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.422425%6 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7ca…844abacked Yes15c140$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.72425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes15c105.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610730.8%33 W · 74 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65ab…273dbacked Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.320432.4%66 W · 138 L-11.3wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-38.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae45…0359backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.