Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17bd73a570cfcc920bff6e73552b8559872219032beefb8480d06efd218a2c44

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $283,000
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $191,257

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $283,000 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9034…4375backed Yes	1c	36,182$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.72	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	1c	22,024$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.09	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	14,866$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.81	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5e8…2352backed Yes	0c	10,862$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	1c	10,271$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.92	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	9,317$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.33	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	0c	8,787$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.16	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	1c	7,924$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.21	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	0c	7,454$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.74	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02c4…3768backed Yes	0c	6,283$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	1c	5,967$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.96	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes	0c	5,235$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.76	256	17.2%44 W · 212 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	4,474$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.74	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	1c	4,444$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.77	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e1a…e20abacked Yes	1c	4,262$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes	1c	3,720$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.49	152	21.1%32 W · 120 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	3,229$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.32	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	2,747$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.02	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	0c	2,600$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	1c	2,237$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.18	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	1c	2,146$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.05	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	2,128$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.84	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d77…04c9backed Yes	1c	1,818$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.25	138	11.6%16 W · 122 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	1c	1,676$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.3	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	1c	1,635$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	1c	1,467$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.56	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	1c	1,271$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe608…f6e8backed Yes	1c	1,005$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.21	72	52.8%38 W · 34 L	+5.5wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb782…aa2dbacked Yes	1c	894.45$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event