Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee3b73cdf13ba1c64919c4abd9d040465fb218d409175c299e0320092c2cbf14

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $432,489
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $397,954

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $432,489 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 373 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	37c	30,990$11,388 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19,601.74	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No	0c	18,025$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.01	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked No	3c	9,748$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.44	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	24c	7,501$1,833 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,668.41	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	53c	7,457$3,918 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,539.3	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed No	61c	6,827$4,188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,188.07	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5734…06babacked Yes	43c	5,750$2,499 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,250.54	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	+64%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e714backed No	4c	5,043$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.07	83	24.1%20 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x114a…f1d1backed Yes	21c	5,000$1,050 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,949.99	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	16c	4,579$724 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,855.3	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	35c	4,362$1,539 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,823.19	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	19c	4,140$797 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,343.14	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	10c	4,123$430 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,692.22	162	22.2%36 W · 126 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No	15c	3,861$587 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$587.23	101	43.6%44 W · 57 L	+4.6wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	50c	3,704$1,841 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,862.87	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	15c	3,312$509 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,802.91	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes	16c	3,213$527 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,685.27	173	35.3%61 W · 112 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf3…aaa0backed Yes	33c	3,149$1,026 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,123.06	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0186…40edbacked Yes	13c	2,993$382 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,611.14	97	33%32 W · 65 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1a…7690backed No	79c	2,900$2,285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,284.7	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No	38c	2,782$1,071 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,071.21	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked No	4c	2,556$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.67	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac5f…d808backed Yes	20c	2,501$512 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,989.2	46	23.9%11 W · 35 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	9c	2,500$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,265.34	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	10c	2,468$248 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,219.18	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	73c	2,386$1,748 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,748.29	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	9c	2,343$219 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,123.39	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	10c	2,200$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,969.99	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	12c	2,143$261 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,882.23	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	50c	2,098$1,049 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,049.31	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x028d…feccbacked Yes	37c	2,055$760 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,294.6	66	22.7%15 W · 51 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2127…37f2backed No	78c	2,000$1,552 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,551.99	108	66.7%72 W · 36 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	62cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	15c	1,819$267 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,552.39	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No	44c	1,789$793 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$793.44	72	56.9%41 W · 31 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae45…0359backed No	76c	1,775$1,356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,356.4	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	12c	1,709$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,508.86	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes	23c	1,619$376 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,243.54	101	25.7%26 W · 75 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	25c	1,586$390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,196.4	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	43c	1,566$675 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$890.65	245	24.9%61 W · 184 L	-13.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-45%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	30c	1,448$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.83	388	48.5%188 W · 200 L	+16.2wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec34…d61ebacked No	1c	1,400$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-72.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No	77c	1,364$1,055 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,054.51	221	60.2%133 W · 88 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4355…c5d4backed No	5c	1,330$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.23	50	14%7 W · 43 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	12c	1,302$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,143.85	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x69ff…b15abacked No	80c	1,291$1,030 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,030.33	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.37per pick	62cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x81fb…25f3backed No	77c	1,282$989 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$988.6	34	79.4%27 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	77cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	20c	1,277$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,021.87	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99a6…6558backed Yes	79c	1,268$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$267.91	73	37%27 W · 46 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1d8…8dd3backed Yes	20c	1,200$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$960	62	30.6%19 W · 43 L	+5.2wins	+0.08per pick	22cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No	32c	1,187$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.3	189	49.2%93 W · 96 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No	50c	1,130$562 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$561.7	131	61.8%81 W · 50 L	+6.2wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes	65c	1,129$734 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$395.46	126	42.9%54 W · 72 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x180f…0c07backed No	74c	1,100$815 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$815.1	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked No	50c	1,091$541 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540.55	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9941…e21ebacked Yes	23c	1,076$252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$823.85	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	18c	1,005$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$828.4	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No	8c	1,000$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.17	149	23.5%35 W · 114 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47f3…e493backed Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$920	97	26.8%26 W · 71 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5285…1cc5backed No	12c	999.99$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.77	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1aed…5925backed Yes	22c	983.06$215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$768.43	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08d9…80a4backed Yes	22c	971.92$213 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$758.92	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	+67.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	25c	953.22$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$713.33	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes	22c	943.76$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$739.76	171	26.9%46 W · 125 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	15c	899.69$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$768.52	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No	26c	876.73$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.74	272	24.3%66 W · 206 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x713b…f43cbacked Yes	16c	840$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$705.6	105	36.2%38 W · 67 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58a5…ec93backed No	80c	839$669 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$668.74	32	84.4%27 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	80cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked Yes	18c	831.16$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$683.67	158	44.9%71 W · 87 L	+12.4wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes	66c	826.26$549 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$277.67	116	43.1%50 W · 66 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No	76c	815.1$623 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$622.74	43	58.1%25 W · 18 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes	47c	814.58$381 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$433.96	101	46.5%47 W · 54 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes	12c	800$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$704	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked No	74c	787.68$581 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$581.12	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes	13c	774$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$669.86	151	28.5%43 W · 108 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes	27c	746.63$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$546.63	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	-3.5wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes	66c	740.64$486 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254.23	107	38.3%41 W · 66 L	-4.3wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes	29c	739.11$214 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$524.77	48	35.4%17 W · 31 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	14c	726.81$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$627.81	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes	73c	720.07$529 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.13	118	47.5%56 W · 62 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x913f…c676backed No	78c	717.98$559 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$558.7	100	43%43 W · 57 L	-7.6wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed No	37c	715.38$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.27	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No	5c	709.26$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.48	208	57.2%119 W · 89 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed No	4c	708.92$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	169	41.4%70 W · 99 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes	75c	706.42$530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176.18	125	48%60 W · 65 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a79…e2afbacked No	6c	700$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	16c	695.76$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$580.98	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No	75c	674.81$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$504.96	73	71.2%52 W · 21 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	73cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	23c	663.98$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$511.34	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7863…ffddbacked Yes	30c	661.83$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$461.83	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3742…150cbacked No	80c	651.99$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$519.71	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-2.6wins	-0.26per pick	66cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x159f…4043backed Yes	17c	650.6$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$540.6	87	21.8%19 W · 68 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9307…8910backed Yes	14c	645.83$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$555.83	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes	13c	635.35$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$551.13	151	36.4%55 W · 96 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6be…a543backed Yes	28c	627.22$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$449.7	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x097b…19c1backed Yes	23c	625.81$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$479.06	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-2.2wins	-0.20per pick	29cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes	25c	610$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$459.1	119	32.8%39 W · 80 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes	18c	606.78$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$496.34	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed No	11c	600$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	17c	588.24$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$488.24	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed No	6c	560$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.1	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event