Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x507adfaafd13957ec7af2c94aa68ab20a9aa06e07e68a55353f5c70b293f6ba9

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 13, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $349,013
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $254,913

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $349,013 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 347 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	19c	28,977$5,544 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,544.39	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	4c	10,500$463 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$463.35	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4355…c5d4backed Yes	5c	6,727$327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326.71	50	14%7 W · 43 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	0c	6,400$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	12c	6,283$744 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$744.02	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	6,029$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.38	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	22c	5,254$1,176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,176.4	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4262…0ef2backed Yes	44c	5,100$2,230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,230.17	51	19.6%10 W · 41 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	+69.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	19c	4,041$773 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$773.04	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d46…d383backed Yes	26c	3,998$1,038 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,037.8	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	29cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	15c	3,917$588 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$588.38	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	15c	3,892$573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$572.57	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed No	80c	3,831$3,050 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$780.7	169	41.4%70 W · 99 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x913f…c676backed Yes	7c	3,699$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.49	100	43%43 W · 57 L	-7.6wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	13c	3,686$477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$477.28	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	12c	3,443$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430.26	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	7c	3,368$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.07	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked Yes	27c	3,155$867 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$866.99	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes	18c	3,029$558 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$557.63	151	36.4%55 W · 96 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e1a…e20abacked Yes	34c	2,933$1,010 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,010	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	17c	2,862$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$496.78	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	18c	2,625$485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$484.58	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	69c	2,613$1,801 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$812.1	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae45…0359backed No	78c	2,551$1,990 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$560.78	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	10c	2,500$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.1	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	25c	2,400$608 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$608	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	39c	2,325$903 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$903.07	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	8c	2,261$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.31	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	19c	2,152$406 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$406	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes	9c	2,056$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.86	179	17.9%32 W · 147 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes	39c	2,050$799 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$799	140	37.1%52 W · 88 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e714backed Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	83	24.1%20 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	15c	1,997$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.95	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes	24c	1,975$473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$473.42	65	40%26 W · 39 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes	20c	1,883$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.69	149	28.2%42 W · 107 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	21c	1,832$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	14c	1,796$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.63	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	9c	1,786$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.98	129	14%18 W · 111 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x700a…a239backed Yes	29c	1,722$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x461e…dd77backed Yes	25c	1,715$421 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420.88	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	29cpaid	-74%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	11c	1,701$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.9	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0186…40edbacked Yes	21c	1,673$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.56	97	33%32 W · 65 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	16c	1,665$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.88	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No	58c	1,660$971 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$689.14	221	60.2%133 W · 88 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes	17c	1,550$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.66	292	27.7%81 W · 211 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes	10c	1,475$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.5	199	30.7%61 W · 138 L	+13.6wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	16c	1,458$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.15	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	20c	1,451$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.18	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes	20c	1,441$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	-3.5wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7741…23e6backed Yes	25c	1,436$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.49	69	36.2%25 W · 44 L	+4.1wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed Yes	29c	1,254$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	10c	1,234$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.4	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes	16c	1,200$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.1	119	32.8%39 W · 80 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes	10c	1,046$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.6	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x633f…0e01backed Yes	24c	1,034$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.31	92	26.1%24 W · 68 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	8c	1,019$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.09	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x028d…feccbacked Yes	22c	1,016$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222	66	22.7%15 W · 51 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x47f3…e493backed Yes	40c	999.94$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.98	97	26.8%26 W · 71 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb86…dc7bbacked Yes	16c	936.18$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.89	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+111.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x633e…d305backed Yes	36c	933.66$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.25	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.12per pick	45cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbf3…aaa0backed Yes	26c	928.89$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.42	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d77…04c9backed Yes	19c	926.58$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.02	138	11.6%16 W · 122 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes	29c	924.06$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	15c	899.98$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x713b…f43cbacked Yes	26c	840.06$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.81	105	36.2%38 W · 67 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes	30c	813.87$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.44	64	35.9%23 W · 41 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-12%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	31c	810.34$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.16	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes	10c	800$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.5	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	774$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.64	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes	26c	773.28$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f43…a070backed Yes	22c	756.67$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.95	35	22.9%8 W · 27 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a09…3c89backed Yes	24c	754.74$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.94	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked No	54c	749.96$405 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$344.98	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes	12c	738.21$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.2	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	29c	734.92$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.21	350	24%84 W · 266 L	-10.5wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	14c	725.71$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.6	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No	64c	725.31$461 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$264.39	131	61.8%81 W · 50 L	+6.2wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5ab…2bcfbacked No	74c	712.71$527 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.3	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2ca…b6adbacked Yes	28c	712.2$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-2.3wins	-0.21per pick	39cpaid	-65%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes	16c	700$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109	130	8.5%11 W · 119 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+95.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No	73c	697.26$510 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$187.36	72	56.9%41 W · 31 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb38d…83d6backed No	75c	697.05$522 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$175.4	25	68%17 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	65cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes	30c	695.91$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	25c	677.92$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.93	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x159f…4043backed Yes	18c	662.94$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	87	21.8%19 W · 68 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	21c	649.26$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.63	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	10c	643.16$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.78	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b24…f36abacked Yes	9c	636.44$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.28	192	29.2%56 W · 136 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb816…9e90backed Yes	18c	600$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107	60	33.3%20 W · 40 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+74.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes	10c	600$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	105	21.9%23 W · 82 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd76d…9457backed Yes	13c	590.36$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	+2.3wins	+0.08per pick	28cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes	19c	584.97$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.66	152	21.1%32 W · 120 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	28c	565.34$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.62	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes	25c	556.08$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.15	151	28.5%43 W · 108 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	14c	554.68$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.82	272	24.3%66 W · 206 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9941…e21ebacked Yes	9c	528.06$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe608…f6e8backed Yes	18c	512.71$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.77	72	52.8%38 W · 34 L	+5.5wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	21c	510$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.1	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes	17c	505.19$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.84	191	18.8%36 W · 155 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	+24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x097b…19c1backed Yes	28c	501.57$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.44	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-2.2wins	-0.20per pick	29cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event