Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd04cfc3253ef13c1ebda1971b9476a29257d60ff5384617579770240b36875f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $151,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $166,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 0c | 29,396$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed No | 1c | 7,860$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.32 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 47c | 6,415$3,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,404.26 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 61c | 5,373$3,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,114.01 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 53c | 4,618$2,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,447.69 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 38c | 4,596$1,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,833.54 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 45c | 4,000$1,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,204.32 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked No | 11c | 3,422$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.64 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 56c | 3,180$1,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.2 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 70c | 2,994$2,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.7 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked No | 4c | 1,913$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 41c | 1,605$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.62 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 24c | 1,598$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.29 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 17c | 1,521$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.47 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 75c | 1,440$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.17 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 2c | 1,423$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 46c | 1,354$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.32 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 3c | 1,294$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked No | 4c | 1,270$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 57c | 1,149$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.7 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 69c | 1,106$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.87 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 42c | 1,095$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.13 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 63c | 1,007$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.72 | 73 | 71.2%52 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…4ae3backed No | 1c | 839.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed No | 7c | 824.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 813$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.59 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes | 77c | 655.29$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.3 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 47c | 600.31$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.65 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4219…6e2cbacked Yes | 50c | 542.08$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.21 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 56c | 520.46$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.54 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 37c | 493.38$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.02 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 55c | 489.21$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.52 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 29c | 469.32$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.93 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…9a07backed No | 7c | 468.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked No | 43c | 454.54$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.06 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed No | 53c | 416.18$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.53 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…0190backed No | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca2…20e6backed Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.94 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 55c | 396$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.36 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 5c | 383.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +10.0wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 77c | 375$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.75 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 73c | 335.55$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 44c | 329.94$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.64 | 149 | 13.4%20 W · 129 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 77c | 324.76$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.43 | 245 | 24.9%61 W · 184 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes | 46c | 314.09$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.61 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 14c | 310$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 308.75$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.28 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe133…6994backed No | 6c | 306.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked No | 38c | 305.56$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.93 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 55c | 292.81$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.99 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…3c89backed Yes | 61c | 266.93$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.09 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 33c | 255.14$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 25c | 251.13$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 240$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.4 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed No | 20c | 226.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed No | 5c | 219.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 41c | 202.72$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.45 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 124 | 29%36 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 40c | 192.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 22c | 190.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…e26cbacked No | 53c | 189.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 61c | 187.29$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.78 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Yes | 56c | 179.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.73 | 344 | 27%93 W · 251 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes | 56c | 178.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec34…d61ebacked No | 6c | 176$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 57c | 172.42$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed No | 58c | 164.91$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.84 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 44c | 163.22$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.7 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 75c | 161.76$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 156.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 155$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…d68abacked Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 67c | 136.98$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 133$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccf…ef8abacked Yes | 77c | 130.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…0d4ebacked Yes | 55c | 123.34$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.34 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 18c | 122.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…1e60backed No | 54c | 120.11$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 103 | 63.1%65 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 54c | 114.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d4…ee54backed Yes | 46c | 113.05$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 60c | 106.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce0…82d6backed Yes | 45c | 103$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed No | 45c | 102.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e1…beabbacked Yes | 45c | 101.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4645…59babacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a6…cca7backed Yes | 58c | 98.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 64c | 97.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…df4abacked Yes | 57c | 97.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…f6e8backed No | 51c | 97.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 55c | 93.87$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed Yes | 76c | 92.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 43c | 79.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0552…0cb5backed No | 30c | 79.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2b…b91fbacked Yes | 60c | 75.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 44c | 74.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce80…c5efbacked No | 46c | 71.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked Yes | 79c | 70.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 56c | 68.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.