Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1b536c510fe7ebcc53fe3262e1197c67bf02c4621b107619f43dc9d81d221af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 36c | 11,767$4,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,271.48 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 72c | 9,000$6,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,525.46 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 30c | 3,587$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.84 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 20c | 3,361$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.93 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 28c | 2,985$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.98 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 22c | 2,726$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.47 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 15c | 2,600$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.19 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 12c | 2,590$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.46 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 23c | 2,534$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.36 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0086…1b8cbacked No | 78c | 2,355$1,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.13 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 25c | 2,193$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.02 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 78c | 2,163$1,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.96 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes | 10c | 2,099$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.77 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 18c | 2,008$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.68 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,994$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 1,745$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.41 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 28c | 1,635$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.21 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 20c | 1,568$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.35 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…e21ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,428$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 13c | 1,406$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.36 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,400$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.02 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,321$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 2c | 1,200$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.1 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 15c | 1,184$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.36 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 14c | 1,141$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.5 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 22c | 1,137$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.71 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 11c | 987.22$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.05 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +10.0wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…b15abacked Yes | 50c | 978.94$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…cf59backed Yes | 13c | 960.92$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.56 | 107 | 10.3%11 W · 96 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes | 23c | 865.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…319bbacked Yes | 18c | 862.76$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.08 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…935fbacked No | 68c | 847.49$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.78 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 6c | 813$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.11 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 34c | 800$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.56 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 48c | 734.37$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.64 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4219…6e2cbacked Yes | 24c | 696.2$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.55 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 28c | 682.26$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.62 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…a214backed Yes | 13c | 678.96$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…b9ccbacked Yes | 22c | 648.01$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.11 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked Yes | 32c | 617.28$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.6 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…a09dbacked Yes | 10c | 612.37$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 20c | 600$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 8c | 580$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d4…ee54backed Yes | 13c | 556.44$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…c5d4backed Yes | 10c | 516.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 14c | 500$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 489.21$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.54 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 21c | 479.4$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ce…1f2abacked Yes | 21c | 452.77$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 15c | 441.16$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…6b29backed Yes | 46c | 430.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes | 32c | 400.89$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.54 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 37c | 400$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0c…df3cbacked No | 77c | 400$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.6 | 280 | 34.3%96 W · 184 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 16c | 397.63$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0552…0cb5backed Yes | 13c | 384.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeacb…52a0backed Yes | 13c | 383.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 25c | 367.92$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.64 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 22c | 356.59$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.53 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 32c | 315.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes | 51c | 304.29$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.01 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed Yes | 11c | 300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked No | 76c | 300$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bf…66c7backed No | 78c | 299.62$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.31 | 96 | 28.1%27 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 29c | 299.19$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.43 | 152 | 21.1%32 W · 120 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked No | 57c | 281.01$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.74 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f5…c7c6backed Yes | 15c | 261.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 21c | 252.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Yes | 19c | 251$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…3a33backed Yes | 36c | 250.95$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.94 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 240$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.65 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e1…beabbacked Yes | 42c | 228.9$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.43 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 26c | 213.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 31c | 200$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe133…6994backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 14c | 194.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 71c | 192.9$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.53 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 63c | 189.68$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.05 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed No | 75c | 184.67$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 19c | 182.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…df4abacked Yes | 28c | 161.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 27c | 161.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c83…28d9backed Yes | 49c | 158.76$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.55 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed No | 63c | 158.58$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 33c | 153.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 150.88$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.31 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes | 30c | 149.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 147.51$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 287 | 23.7%68 W · 219 L | -46.5wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 140$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 38c | 138.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 69c | 137.27$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 135$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes | 37c | 134.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2b…b91fbacked Yes | 25c | 131.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4afc…e11ebacked Yes | 36c | 130.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…3c89backed Yes | 38c | 129.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked No | 68c | 124.52$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…6c75backed Yes | 24c | 123.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +429.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.