Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x331e84f080cef0976b352852775f948219eb8243ee4f3b3e59af411cc40d7800
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $234,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $172,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $234,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 0c | 34,409$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.81 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…4ae3backed Yes | 2c | 16,290$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.33 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 13c | 12,683$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.93 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 13c | 5,471$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.46 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 7c | 5,384$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.33 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 3c | 5,100$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.05 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 9c | 4,972$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.68 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 5c | 4,796$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.33 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 0c | 4,155$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 9c | 4,085$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.09 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 10c | 3,548$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.05 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 6c | 3,458$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.91 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 10c | 3,202$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.08 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 5c | 3,096$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.89 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 22c | 3,000$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.34 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…d60dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,937$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.51 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,800$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.98 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 17c | 2,697$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.7 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 7c | 2,411$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.67 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 23c | 2,367$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.51 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 2c | 2,010$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 10c | 1,956$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.37 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,908$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.48 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,840$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 8c | 1,755$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.72 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 4c | 1,751$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.03 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 14c | 1,676$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.32 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,623$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.12 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 7c | 1,588$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.51 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa980…583ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,491$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…dd45backed Yes | 6c | 1,400$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,394$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.88 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e4…28b8backed Yes | 3c | 1,291$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 83 | 16.9%14 W · 69 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ce…1f2abacked Yes | 11c | 1,268$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 2c | 1,258$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 77c | 1,200$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,133$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 6c | 1,131$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 1,048$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 245 | 24.9%61 W · 184 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 1c | 999.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaee…2fffbacked Yes | 3c | 999.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 813$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.99 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 9c | 800$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 3c | 784.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes | 26c | 770$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…a09dbacked Yes | 9c | 768.91$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 12c | 759.91$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.28 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 5c | 698.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 7c | 690.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 24c | 599.29$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.31 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 3c | 526.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed Yes | 12c | 513.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes | 3c | 493.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 476.94$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.11 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 8c | 467.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 463.17$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.15 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…23e6backed Yes | 7c | 457.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…5b8cbacked Yes | 9c | 429.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 11c | 419.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 13c | 400$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 149 | 13.4%20 W · 129 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…98c3backed Yes | 3c | 385.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 77c | 375$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 9c | 360$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 7c | 358.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 12c | 328.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 10c | 319.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes | 22c | 311.35$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 177 | 20.9%37 W · 140 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes | 27c | 304.26$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.15 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ca…450abacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 312 | 17.3%54 W · 258 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Yes | 4c | 284$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…9a07backed Yes | 5c | 261.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 240$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 12c | 230.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 10c | 230$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bf…66c7backed Yes | 15c | 226.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 96 | 28.1%27 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…3c89backed Yes | 15c | 209.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 10c | 204.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf829…0688backed Yes | 18c | 195.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 15c | 191.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…1537backed Yes | 15c | 189.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 159 | 18.9%30 W · 129 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 175$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…9a02backed Yes | 11c | 174.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…ec42backed Yes | 9c | 164.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed No | 74c | 164.53$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 10c | 163.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43d…3978backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 12c | 149.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 16c | 142.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 27c | 134.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 11c | 130.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.