TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Dallas Wings vs. Indiana Fever

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Indiana Feverof Dallas Wings, Indiana Fever
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$315,546
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$323,093

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $315,546 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 242 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Dallas Wings25c89,443$22,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,388.48560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Indiana Fever75c48,095$36,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,051.6426953.2%143 W · 126 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8002…8b6cbacked Indiana Fever77c31,762$24,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,382.811163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Dallas Wings23c22,664$5,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,264.9678548.8%383 W · 402 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Indiana Fever75c19,662$14,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,935.2432049.4%158 W · 162 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2978…b511backed Dallas Wings33c17,869$5,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,834.264334.9%15 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6db5…e279backed Indiana Fever70c14,053$9,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,202.881060%6 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Dallas Wings41c12,379$5,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,128.0650646.8%237 W · 269 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Indiana Fever62c10,707$6,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,026.361,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Dallas Wings25c9,323$2,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,362.0883748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Indiana Fever76c8,000$6,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920.68159.3%48 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Dallas Wings40c6,049$2,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,395.881618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.22per pick41cpaid-70.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Indiana Fever68c5,286$3,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,690.987740.3%31 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Indiana Fever70c5,278$3,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,572.799548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Dallas Wings38c3,841$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.052626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-43.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Dallas Wings25c3,271$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.7536154%195 W · 166 L+0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Indiana Fever70c3,194$2,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.1189349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked Indiana Fever76c3,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7201154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Indiana Fever75c2,946$2,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.5840550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab9d…cf12backed Indiana Fever67c2,752$1,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.25666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Dallas Wings27c2,559$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.071,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Indiana Fever75c2,445$1,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.262065%13 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Indiana Fever63c2,334$1,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.0832150.2%161 W · 160 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e1e…cbfbbacked Indiana Fever55c2,162$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.69666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Indiana Fever65c1,859$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.3537141.2%153 W · 218 L-13.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Indiana Fever75c1,779$1,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.044456.8%25 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x656a…6077backed Dallas Wings40c1,770$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+27.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91b6…4b40backed Dallas Wings23c1,736$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40212234.4%42 W · 80 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1ed…25bebacked Indiana Fever57c1,720$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.652142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Indiana Fever77c1,678$1,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.8955255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Dallas Wings25c1,602$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.414942.3%63 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Dallas Wings23c1,600$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36819446.4%90 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6387…95dcbacked Indiana Fever60c1,441$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.671586.7%13 W · 2 L+5.0wins+0.33per pick54cpaid+61.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x04e6…3914backed Dallas Wings25c1,362$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.510463.5%66 W · 38 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+19.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Indiana Fever54c1,353$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.0324852.4%130 W · 118 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba0c…4715backed Indiana Fever74c1,352$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.361080%8 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Dallas Wings24c1,340$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.69139.6%36 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Dallas Wings40c1,339$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.1985158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Dallas Wings17c1,277$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.19214.1%13 W · 79 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Dallas Wings18c1,266$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.231448.4%152 W · 162 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb68b…9b23backed Dallas Wings40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd772…1d8fbacked Dallas Wings51c1,176$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.6837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0612…8d12backed Indiana Fever74c1,081$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.08785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick73cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabe0…5adbbacked Indiana Fever75c1,013$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.338061.3%49 W · 31 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Dallas Wings24c999.98$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2408348.2%40 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Dallas Wings28c999.87$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.3832540.3%131 W · 194 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa61…7f3bbacked Indiana Fever74c998.65$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.6528558.6%167 W · 118 L+20.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x911b…344fbacked Dallas Wings29c965.52$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2803444.1%15 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Dallas Wings42c942.43$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.3628647.9%137 W · 149 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Dallas Wings25c921.77$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.5631043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe692…13a8backed Dallas Wings27c821.33$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.613850%19 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8513…7d41backed Indiana Fever74c810.81$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.814751.1%24 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x34b8…81afbacked Indiana Fever65c769.23$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.235844.8%26 W · 32 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Dallas Wings2c744.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9444915.6%70 W · 379 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Indiana Fever60c670.2$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.8915250.7%77 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Indiana Fever53c636.37$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.8319428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Indiana Fever76c633.89$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.132227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-50.3%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x6262…b5c0backed Dallas Wings25c577.48$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.372015%3 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-0.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Dallas Wings25c564.02$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.226934.8%24 W · 45 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1b2…ba55backed Indiana Fever74c561.68$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.421275%9 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94c1…8036backed Dallas Wings36c553.22$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001926.3%5 W · 14 L-5.7wins-0.30per pick56cpaid-59.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Dallas Wings33c549.43$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.88062.5%50 W · 30 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+5.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb624…3d80backed Dallas Wings31c548.39$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1701643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Indiana Fever76c545.68$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.15020%10 W · 40 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x63df…63d1backed Dallas Wings30c541.2$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.357638.2%29 W · 47 L+8.2wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+35.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Indiana Fever64c532.82$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.623955.2%132 W · 107 L+12.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Dallas Wings40c511.83$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.8220340.9%83 W · 120 L-16.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb8e…3dc3backed Dallas Wings26c480.77$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x364f…1515backed Indiana Fever63c477$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.49560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d64…ba4abacked Dallas Wings27c449.73$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.211717.6%3 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-63%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Dallas Wings31c447.34$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.7931847.8%152 W · 166 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Dallas Wings25c446$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.516450%82 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68cb…0000backed Indiana Fever69c424.3$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.731770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd09…42d9backed Dallas Wings27c400$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1083259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed Dallas Wings25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007829.5%23 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa64f…bcf8backed Dallas Wings51c400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2041566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5145…dd71backed Indiana Fever57c399.98$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.999251.1%47 W · 45 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfbc6…9092backed Dallas Wings25c393.4$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.352825%7 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed Dallas Wings27c381.67$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.96643.9%29 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+23.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb63…b3debacked Dallas Wings27c374.07$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick25cpaid-79%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e6b…8a98backed Dallas Wings25c373.4$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.22per pick41cpaid-51.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Indiana Fever56c372.2$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.92040%8 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1146…a468backed Indiana Fever66c367.25$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.22475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+32.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Indiana Fever69c363.19$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.195364.2%34 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68cb…6872backed Indiana Fever68c361.59$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.783933.3%13 W · 26 L-5.6wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-45.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x582c…3266backed Indiana Fever55c361.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.371457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Dallas Wings44c358.26$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.634020%8 W · 32 L-10.5wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-63.2%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x9303…731abacked Indiana Fever65c341.18$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.35250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccf…ef8abacked Indiana Fever74c338.17$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.174763.8%30 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f7…c4e4backed Indiana Fever74c335.1$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.883941%16 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Indiana Fever61c330.23$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.128549.4%42 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Dallas Wings24c321.29$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.234726.5%92 W · 255 L-20.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa4b2…1c67backed Indiana Fever59c300$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1232548%12 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae26…fdb3backed Indiana Fever71c289.38$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.382450%12 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-26.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Dallas Wings31c275.85$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.2530734.2%105 W · 202 L-28.2wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-23.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x9767…1a16backed Dallas Wings46c273.91$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1256437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4dd2…9014backed Indiana Fever74c270.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.272755.6%15 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88c7…cd28backed Indiana Fever75c265.96$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.961330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.27per pick58cpaid-52.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Dallas Wings25c263.67$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9232750.2%164 W · 163 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Indiana Fever75c256$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6492248.8%450 W · 472 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.