WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Fever (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x882265ee611da86a93dd9cbf7d2a886f4f8c2337d549ae77ca4b3c0e169a1fa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indiana Feverof Indiana Fever, Dallas Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Dallas Wings | 51c | 2,811$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,446.02 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Indiana Fever | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.2 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Dallas Wings | 40c | 1,635$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.08 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…1c58backed Indiana Fever | 51c | 1,480$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.75 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Fever | 58c | 1,370$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.42 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Indiana Fever | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Dallas Wings | 50c | 733.08$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.29 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Dallas Wings | 34c | 516.48$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.75 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Dallas Wings | 56c | 287$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.72 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Dallas Wings | 41c | 241.89$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 160.19$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.1 | 286 | 47.9%137 W · 149 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…3373backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 156.1$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Indiana Fever | 40c | 147.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.63 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Indiana Fever | 60c | 145.85$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf809…b391backed Indiana Fever | 54c | 103.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…230dbacked Indiana Fever | 60c | 102$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc2…8b9bbacked Dallas Wings | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Indiana Fever | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Indiana Fever | 47c | 61.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Indiana Fever | 59c | 57.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 76 | 69.7%53 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e9…67ffbacked Indiana Fever | 56c | 50.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Indiana Fever | 58c | 49.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaf…1f76backed Dallas Wings | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +8.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +24%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Indiana Fever | 39c | 41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Dallas Wings | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Dallas Wings | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Dallas Wings | 42c | 30.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Dallas Wings | 46c | 29.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 192 | 57.3%110 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Dallas Wings | 46c | 23.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-5.5)this page
- Caitlin Clark: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Caitlin Clark: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Dallas Wings vs. Indiana FeverIndiana Fever won
- Dallas Wings vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 184.5Over won
- Dallas Wings vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 185.5Under won
- Dallas Wings vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 186.5Under won
- Dallas Wings vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 187.5Under won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5)Indiana Fever won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5)Indiana Fever won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5)Indiana Fever won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.