TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$274,348
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$293,218

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,348 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 360 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes49c25,430$12,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,054.418616.1%30 W · 156 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6be…a543backed Yes36c14,211$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,111.48540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes41c5,856$2,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,427.4253222.7%121 W · 411 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes70c5,803$4,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,763.2322325.1%56 W · 167 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0086…1b8cbacked No75c3,792$2,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8613135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid+145.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked No42c3,721$1,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,546.4712528%35 W · 90 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed No58c3,683$2,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,126.6311926.9%32 W · 87 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-50.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No65c3,629$2,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,352.2821959.8%131 W · 88 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes46c3,133$1,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,706.2639723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes33c2,893$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,933.9254122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked No24c2,377$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.714037.1%52 W · 88 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes25c2,360$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,771.042,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed Yes49c2,202$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.8516941.4%70 W · 99 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No51c2,176$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.0241230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No16c2,051$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.918949.2%93 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…5762backed Yes57c2,027$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.526350.8%32 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x881a…ccccbacked No22c2,010$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.0113235.6%47 W · 85 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes33c1,966$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,309.3832613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes10c1,895$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,705.1916122.4%36 W · 125 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…80dabacked Yes71c1,796$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed No9c1,760$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.591863.8%7 W · 179 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No7c1,722$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.0415844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No41c1,712$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.461159.6%11 W · 104 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No38c1,691$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.5356329.8%168 W · 395 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes39c1,600$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.4457222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes49c1,577$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.453619.4%7 W · 29 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-43.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No31c1,541$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.338648.2%186 W · 200 L+15.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No30c1,462$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4341,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No72c1,432$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.9654274.9%406 W · 136 L+34.0wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9d0…542cbacked No9c1,400$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.5674.5%3 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-77.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No53c1,400$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.9524672.8%179 W · 67 L+15.5wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No44c1,334$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.640519.8%80 W · 325 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes47c1,332$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.4614427.1%39 W · 105 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+17.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes43c1,276$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.4324524.9%61 W · 184 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes24c1,207$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.4157420.9%120 W · 454 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No18c1,195$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.0110151.5%52 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes35c1,183$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.1915435.1%54 W · 100 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked No33c1,056$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.7499410.6%105 W · 889 L-30.0wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes43c1,052$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.81,1908.7%104 W · 1,086 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No25c1,036$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.0831242.9%134 W · 178 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes49c1,029$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.8515922.6%36 W · 123 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes31c1,024$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.7187618.4%161 W · 715 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes33c1,014$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.836026.7%16 W · 44 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed No26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2607216.7%12 W · 60 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-69.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x180f…0c07backed No61c1,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6107626.3%20 W · 56 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x13d8…06c4backed Yes14c950$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8173912.8%5 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick8cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes54c936.46$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.832615.4%4 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes50c904.63$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.6310125.7%26 W · 75 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes61c904.1$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.9650828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6ce…f073backed No79c900$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7151782.4%14 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes53c899.91$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.9632016.6%53 W · 267 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No20c895$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.9513161.8%81 W · 50 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+24.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes52c891.1$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.9763021.7%137 W · 493 L+2.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes34c870.02$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.0213215.9%21 W · 111 L+0.5wins0.00per pick16cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58a5…ec93backed No80c835.8$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.293083.3%25 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick80cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No43c833.53$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.744257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes32c808.59$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.5928812.8%37 W · 251 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes46c807.66$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.7611932.8%39 W · 80 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked No67c799.91$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.6632415.7%51 W · 273 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-62.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes43c799.37$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.0419731%61 W · 136 L+13.8wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0df4…c7cbbacked No66c768.49$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.965567.3%37 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe133…6994backed No11c765.39$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5410432.7%34 W · 70 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed No7c739.96$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.182614.9%123 W · 703 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8007…a8f4backed Yes72c735.22$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.8915649.4%77 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes78c707.28$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.7615929.6%47 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No21c703.05$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.9816750.3%84 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No2c700$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1362539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd928…23cabacked Yes14c665$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.654216.7%7 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes30c642.34$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.616540%26 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes45c641.38$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.4888210.3%91 W · 791 L-4.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes31c633.56$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4341,04013.7%142 W · 898 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes27c622.72$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.5914022.1%31 W · 109 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa4a…fc9bbacked Yes54c592.91$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.349035.6%32 W · 58 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd76d…9457backed Yes32c583.32$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.752835.7%10 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick28cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes35c577.54$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.542128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No28c566.24$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.4211558.3%67 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes45c565.05$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.817335.3%61 W · 112 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed No13c554.78$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1249919%95 W · 404 L-1.7wins0.00per pick19cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes20c500$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4004829.2%14 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes61c499.82$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.5415128.5%43 W · 108 L+0.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes20c450$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36041310.7%44 W · 369 L+0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid+12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed No62c437.14$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.2834425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe62e…cc81backed No31c422.78$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.0616741.3%69 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No53c408$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.4519053.7%102 W · 88 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ff6…4e36backed Yes38c400.74$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.6411721.4%25 W · 92 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb419…cb01backed Yes35c397.62$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.02922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes11c376.42$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.6812914%18 W · 111 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa32d…df56backed Yes42c369.99$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.791346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes18c366.89$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.3810441.3%43 W · 61 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c02…b65fbacked Yes27c363.74$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.67540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a09…3c89backed Yes56c353.62$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.62740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x619a…8b85backed Yes36c349.98$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.985038%19 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No66c348.8$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.9921757.6%125 W · 92 L+0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0862…9a02backed No37c335$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.611024.5%27 W · 83 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c0f…a214backed Yes30c333.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.332218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-41.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes20c324.5$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.614513.8%20 W · 125 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-34.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes32c324$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.9115817.7%28 W · 130 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes16c323.83$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.5832917%56 W · 273 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca20…ae4ebacked Yes22c318.04$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.584431.8%14 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.