Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5fac43fb2ceb6e88c4badb230421d6f5f3a3cdfe170d5b5469445d1747d960d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $274,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $293,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 360 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 49c | 25,430$12,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,054.4 | 186 | 16.1%30 W · 156 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6be…a543backed Yes | 36c | 14,211$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,111.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 41c | 5,856$2,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,427.42 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 70c | 5,803$4,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,763.23 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0086…1b8cbacked No | 75c | 3,792$2,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,861 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +145.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked No | 42c | 3,721$1,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,546.47 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…3e31backed No | 58c | 3,683$2,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,126.63 | 119 | 26.9%32 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 65c | 3,629$2,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,352.28 | 219 | 59.8%131 W · 88 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 46c | 3,133$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,706.26 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 33c | 2,893$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,933.92 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked No | 24c | 2,377$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.7 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 2,360$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,771.04 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 49c | 2,202$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.85 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 51c | 2,176$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.02 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 16c | 2,051$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.9 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…5762backed Yes | 57c | 2,027$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.52 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked No | 22c | 2,010$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.01 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 33c | 1,966$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.38 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 10c | 1,895$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,705.19 | 161 | 22.4%36 W · 125 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…80dabacked Yes | 71c | 1,796$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…e840backed No | 9c | 1,760$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.59 | 186 | 3.8%7 W · 179 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 7c | 1,722$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.04 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 41c | 1,712$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.46 | 115 | 9.6%11 W · 104 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 38c | 1,691$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.53 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 39c | 1,600$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.44 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes | 49c | 1,577$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.45 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 1,541$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.3 | 386 | 48.2%186 W · 200 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 30c | 1,462$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 72c | 1,432$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.96 | 542 | 74.9%406 W · 136 L | +34.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d0…542cbacked No | 9c | 1,400$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked No | 53c | 1,400$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.95 | 246 | 72.8%179 W · 67 L | +15.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 44c | 1,334$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.6 | 405 | 19.8%80 W · 325 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 47c | 1,332$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.46 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 1,276$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.43 | 245 | 24.9%61 W · 184 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 24c | 1,207$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.41 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 18c | 1,195$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.01 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…23fdbacked Yes | 35c | 1,183$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.19 | 154 | 35.1%54 W · 100 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 33c | 1,056$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.74 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 43c | 1,052$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.8 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 25c | 1,036$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.08 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa67b…af43backed Yes | 49c | 1,029$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.85 | 159 | 22.6%36 W · 123 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 31c | 1,024$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.71 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 33c | 1,014$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.83 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…e6f7backed No | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180f…0c07backed No | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d8…06c4backed Yes | 14c | 950$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes | 54c | 936.46$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.83 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes | 50c | 904.63$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.63 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 61c | 904.1$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.96 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ce…f073backed No | 79c | 900$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 53c | 899.91$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.96 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 20c | 895$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.95 | 131 | 61.8%81 W · 50 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 52c | 891.1$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.97 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes | 34c | 870.02$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.02 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a5…ec93backed No | 80c | 835.8$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.29 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 80cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 43c | 833.53$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.74 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 32c | 808.59$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.59 | 288 | 12.8%37 W · 251 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 46c | 807.66$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.76 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked No | 67c | 799.91$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.66 | 324 | 15.7%51 W · 273 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 43c | 799.37$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.04 | 197 | 31%61 W · 136 L | +13.8wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0df4…c7cbbacked No | 66c | 768.49$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.96 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe133…6994backed No | 11c | 765.39$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.54 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed No | 7c | 739.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 826 | 14.9%123 W · 703 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed Yes | 72c | 735.22$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.89 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 78c | 707.28$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.76 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 21c | 703.05$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.98 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 2c | 700$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd928…23cabacked Yes | 14c | 665$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.65 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes | 30c | 642.34$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.61 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 45c | 641.38$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.48 | 882 | 10.3%91 W · 791 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 31c | 633.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee1…746fbacked Yes | 27c | 622.72$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.59 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4a…fc9bbacked Yes | 54c | 592.91$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.34 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…9457backed Yes | 32c | 583.32$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.75 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes | 35c | 577.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.54 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 28c | 566.24$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.42 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 45c | 565.05$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.8 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed No | 13c | 554.78$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.12 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 61c | 499.82$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.54 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 20c | 450$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 413 | 10.7%44 W · 369 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed No | 62c | 437.14$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.28 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed No | 31c | 422.78$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.06 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 408$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.45 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff6…4e36backed Yes | 38c | 400.74$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.64 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb419…cb01backed Yes | 35c | 397.62$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.02 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes | 11c | 376.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.68 | 129 | 14%18 W · 111 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa32d…df56backed Yes | 42c | 369.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.79 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…6931backed Yes | 18c | 366.89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.38 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c02…b65fbacked Yes | 27c | 363.74$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…3c89backed Yes | 56c | 353.62$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.6 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x619a…8b85backed Yes | 36c | 349.98$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.98 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 348.8$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.99 | 217 | 57.6%125 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…9a02backed No | 37c | 335$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.6 | 110 | 24.5%27 W · 83 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…a214backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 20c | 324.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.6 | 145 | 13.8%20 W · 125 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 32c | 324$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.91 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 16c | 323.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.58 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…ae4ebacked Yes | 22c | 318.04$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.58 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.