Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f1384b2f3a9dfddd2004571dcd2cc2fc10a0c2b5337a7726de66bf18440145e

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $274,582
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $181,617

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,582 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb831…892bbacked Yes	0c	47,970$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.97	179	17.9%32 W · 147 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	1c	28,171$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.48	162	22.2%36 W · 126 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	2c	17,923$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.75	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	2c	15,408$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.51	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	10,500$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	1c	8,315$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.16	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	7,053$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.32	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	0c	6,700$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	3c	5,376$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.39	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	4,141$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.79	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	4,023$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.2	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	3,253$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.64	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes	1c	2,925$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.51	107	10.3%11 W · 96 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	3c	2,897$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.96	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	2,559$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.9	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	2c	2,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	1,241$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.45	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	2c	1,123$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.18	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	2c	1,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbf3…aaa0backed Yes	3c	997.73$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	2c	914.19$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.21	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	862.02$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.69	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	2c	712.85$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.24	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	2c	678$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.11	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9afc…314bbacked Yes	2c	672.41$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	2c	665.32$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.24	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	3c	600$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	3c	594.38$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.59	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fac…3e5abacked Yes	4c	544.03$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ced…2c7ebacked Yes	4c	499.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.48	96	14.6%14 W · 82 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x339d…06dabacked Yes	4c	291.86$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.53	88	21.6%19 W · 69 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event