Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd28e79d3b0a529b5b6c08198cd639c947f38608b09573483d026a4af347f0a4

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 7, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $132,269
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $44,305

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,269 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1d9f…012fbacked Yes	0c	30,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	189	17.5%33 W · 156 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	9,195$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.63	201	9%18 W · 183 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+171.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	3c	6,113$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.69	213	15.5%33 W · 180 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	4,197$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.73	1,209	8.7%105 W · 1,104 L	+31.6wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	0c	3,700$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	259	13.5%35 W · 224 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	2c	3,666$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.26	1,035	10.5%109 W · 926 L	-32.8wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	3,195$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.41	899	10.2%92 W · 807 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	3,067$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.2	2,576	13.2%339 W · 2,237 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	2c	2,492$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.57	574	29.6%170 W · 404 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	1,930$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.87	789	8.7%69 W · 720 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	1,394$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.2	1,799	7.4%133 W · 1,666 L	-24.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc99e…3853backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	199	22.6%45 W · 154 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	2c	876.43$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.02	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9afc…314bbacked Yes	2c	808.68$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.94	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68ff…ec42backed Yes	6c	669.41$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.41	90	18.9%17 W · 73 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x710c…ec59backed Yes	2c	600$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	4c	561.81$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.14	200	14%28 W · 172 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	6c	477.17$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.4	129	26.4%34 W · 95 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes	6c	425.72$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.67	117	10.3%12 W · 105 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	5c	362.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9df…d830backed Yes	4c	344.05$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.19	160	17.5%28 W · 132 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	5c	325$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.55	894	17.1%153 W · 741 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	4c	306.81$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.32	117	10.3%12 W · 105 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	5c	290.28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	298	12.8%38 W · 260 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	7c	272.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	469	21.3%100 W · 369 L	-10.7wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.05	736	15.2%112 W · 624 L	+12.2wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	7c	163.83$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	350	25.7%90 W · 260 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event