Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefb0f2697ded1ef9f077c6b41fc975c3bd4e29281d739c3e9937d5126583ac43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $260,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $176,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $260,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 13,804$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.93 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 3c | 13,084$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.89 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 8,715$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 1c | 6,664$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 2c | 5,659$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.39 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes | 0c | 5,160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -93.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,816$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,196$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 278 | 5%14 W · 264 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 2c | 4,182$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 3c | 4,178$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.96 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,851$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…e840backed Yes | 0c | 2,850$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 186 | 3.8%7 W · 179 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 13c | 2,613$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.9 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…4375backed Yes | 7c | 2,600$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 254 | 13.4%34 W · 220 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,424$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 6c | 2,382$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.95 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 3c | 2,361$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.56 | 886 | 10.3%91 W · 795 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 2,061$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x790e…989bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,978$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f4…16bdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,963$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 1,909$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 7c | 1,430$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 12c | 1,223$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.37 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,191$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.18 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…9917backed Yes | 4c | 1,180$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 79 | 20.3%16 W · 63 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccf…bdb5backed Yes | 18c | 1,121$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.82 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…2b9ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,075$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0086…1b8cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,051$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 13c | 1,021$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.28 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x504d…c5a4backed Yes | 2c | 990.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d8…06c4backed Yes | 12c | 950.31$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.94 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 9c | 907$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.07 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes | 3c | 895.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 250 | 12.8%32 W · 218 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…9a02backed Yes | 3c | 843$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 6c | 789.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 1c | 741.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 8c | 722.17$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…7e5abacked Yes | 2c | 700$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 291 | 13.1%38 W · 253 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 3c | 660.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 10c | 655.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 289 | 12.8%37 W · 252 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…ff7bbacked Yes | 3c | 640.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 73 | 16.4%12 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 4c | 600.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 559 | 8.2%46 W · 513 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0670…09c7backed Yes | 16c | 592.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.38 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699b…0296backed Yes | 9c | 591.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 193 | 14%27 W · 166 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes | 14c | 577.21$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…ee5cbacked Yes | 11c | 573.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 9c | 504.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes | 10c | 504$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd928…23cabacked Yes | 15c | 499.97$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.56 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…23fdbacked Yes | 17c | 499.96$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.99 | 154 | 35.1%54 W · 100 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb419…cb01backed Yes | 15c | 443.27$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 13c | 405$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 9c | 400$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 149 | 13.4%20 W · 129 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Yes | 4c | 386$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 19c | 350.84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 245 | 24.9%61 W · 184 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671f…b191backed Yes | 16c | 320$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x544e…86dcbacked Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 10c | 289.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…9457backed Yes | 14c | 286.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85bb…6df0backed Yes | 6c | 283.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87d7…6819backed Yes | 12c | 260$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe183…3e16backed Yes | 4c | 244.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…4043backed Yes | 7c | 219.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 21.8%19 W · 68 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…8910backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 6c | 210.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc99e…3853backed Yes | 13c | 207.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 197 | 22.8%45 W · 152 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c9…3c8bbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 79 | 15.2%12 W · 67 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…5704backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6933…0f16backed Yes | 8c | 183.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 475 | 10.5%50 W · 425 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 177 | 20.9%37 W · 140 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…a070backed Yes | 8c | 170$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf331…55c3backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…ec42backed Yes | 13c | 157.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…1537backed Yes | 12c | 140.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 159 | 18.9%30 W · 129 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…314bbacked Yes | 9c | 133.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b4…aae2backed Yes | 9c | 125.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…df4abacked Yes | 10c | 121$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…3a1cbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9a…50b5backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x539e…3ccebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 125 | 14.4%18 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf165…d277backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…0fc7backed Yes | 19c | 63.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.