TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$260,764
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$176,932

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $260,764 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes1c13,804$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.931,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes3c13,084$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.8919215.6%30 W · 162 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-53.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes1c8,715$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.821,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes1c6,664$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6951410.5%54 W · 460 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes2c5,659$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3916222.2%36 W · 126 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes0c5,160$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.64464.3%2 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-93.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes1c5,000$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0379811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes1c4,816$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4622325.1%56 W · 167 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes0c4,196$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.292785%14 W · 264 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-89.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes2c4,182$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903844.7%18 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes3c4,178$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.961,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes1c3,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4439723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c2,851$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.671,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes0c2,850$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.941863.8%7 W · 179 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes13c2,613$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.970616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes7c2,600$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17025413.4%34 W · 220 L-0.6wins0.00per pick14cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes1c2,424$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9332613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes1c2,400$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4432615.6%51 W · 275 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-62.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes6c2,382$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.9517419%33 W · 141 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes3c2,361$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5688610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes1c2,061$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.521,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x790e…989bbacked Yes2c1,978$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.126722.4%15 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34f4…16bdbacked Yes8c1,963$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick7cpaid+47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes2c1,909$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.222,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes1c1,500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.118511.4%21 W · 164 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes7c1,430$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.112810.9%14 W · 114 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-61.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes2c1,400$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2865311%72 W · 581 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes12c1,223$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.3782714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes16c1,191$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.184918.4%9 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe53…9917backed Yes4c1,180$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.527920.3%16 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ccf…bdb5backed Yes18c1,121$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.821816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d27…2b9ebacked Yes9c1,075$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.37per pick23cpaid+110.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0086…1b8cbacked Yes12c1,051$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1273234.4%11 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid+137.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes13c1,021$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.2815817.7%28 W · 130 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes2c1,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1828211%31 W · 251 L-0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x504d…c5a4backed Yes2c990.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13d8…06c4backed Yes12c950.31$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.943912.8%5 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick8cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes9c907$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.073828.9%11 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes3c895.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3325012.8%32 W · 218 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0862…9a02backed Yes3c843$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8411124.3%27 W · 84 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes6c789.98$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.21,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes1c741.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8150828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes8c722.17$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1240719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes2c700$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5529113.1%38 W · 253 L-0.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes3c660.2$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.611,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes10c655.5$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4628912.8%37 W · 252 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9279…ff7bbacked Yes3c640.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.737316.4%12 W · 61 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-39%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes4c600.4$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.265598.2%46 W · 513 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0670…09c7backed Yes16c592.98$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.382722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes9c591.7$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4519314%27 W · 166 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes14c577.21$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.34117.1%7 W · 34 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1d5…ee5cbacked Yes11c573.45$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.353531.4%11 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+26.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes9c504.97$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0232917%56 W · 273 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes10c504$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.46940.6%28 W · 41 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd928…23cabacked Yes15c499.97$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.564714.9%7 W · 40 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes17c499.96$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9915435.1%54 W · 100 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb419…cb01backed Yes15c443.27$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes13c405$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6545911.3%52 W · 407 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes9c400$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3714913.4%20 W · 129 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-36.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe50e…45c5backed Yes4c386$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.926939.1%27 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes19c350.84$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6624524.9%61 W · 184 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x671f…b191backed Yes16c320$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.21546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc94a…3975backed Yes7c300$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226240.3%25 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x544e…86dcbacked Yes4c299.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125012%6 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes10c289.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.87828.7%68 W · 714 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd76d…9457backed Yes14c286.42$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402835.7%10 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick28cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85bb…6df0backed Yes6c283.16$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87d7…6819backed Yes12c260$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.21822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+46.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe183…3e16backed Yes4c244.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.68053.8%43 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x159f…4043backed Yes7c219.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158721.8%19 W · 68 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9307…8910backed Yes7c214.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes6c210.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8131624.7%78 W · 238 L-0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc99e…3853backed Yes13c207.16$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8619722.8%45 W · 152 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23c9…3c8bbacked Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147915.2%12 W · 67 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0633…5704backed Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146011.7%7 W · 53 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1830317.2%52 W · 251 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes8c183.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1547510.5%50 W · 425 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes17c176.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3017720.9%37 W · 140 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f43…a070backed Yes8c170$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.73522.9%8 W · 27 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes15c166.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2546521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf331…55c3backed Yes12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2090%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68ff…ec42backed Yes13c157.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.079018.9%17 W · 73 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb5a…1537backed Yes12c140.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4815918.9%30 W · 129 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9afc…314bbacked Yes9c133.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.64160%0 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57b4…aae2backed Yes9c125.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.190%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed32…df4abacked Yes10c121$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.943023.3%7 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x182a…3a1cbacked Yes17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f9a…50b5backed Yes13c115.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x539e…3ccebacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1712514.4%18 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf165…d277backed Yes17c99.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71f…0fc7backed Yes19c63.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.