Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31f5acacecc85effe6e80cecca25f128c1ec1e7e51f3bc0e077bafe86725032f

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 7, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $305,740
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $170,278

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $305,740 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	7c	25,343$1,651 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,651.32	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	1c	10,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	1c	9,306$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.46	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	9,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	8,990$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.66	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	8,587$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.01	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	4c	8,074$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.52	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	5c	6,614$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.57	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	3c	6,006$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.09	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	4,036$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.98	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	4c	3,916$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.18	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	2c	3,381$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.85	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	2c	3,343$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.68	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes	3c	3,300$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.54	151	28.5%43 W · 108 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c02…b65fbacked Yes	17c	3,281$551 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$551.19	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.11per pick	29cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	5c	3,150$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.11	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	7c	3,100$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.92	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	7c	3,098$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.62	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	3,060$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes	0c	3,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	159	29.6%47 W · 112 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b05…8983backed Yes	1c	3,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	+11.8wins	+0.10per pick	12cpaid	+49.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	1c	2,900$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes	10c	2,797$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.07	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	16c	2,502$408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408.25	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	5c	2,396$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.93	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f7…9ed6backed Yes	3c	2,362$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.14	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x881a…ccccbacked Yes	1c	2,265$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.59	132	35.6%47 W · 85 L	+10.5wins	+0.08per pick	28cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	4c	2,100$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.06	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9d0…542cbacked Yes	1c	2,030$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.29	67	4.5%3 W · 64 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	2,030$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.43	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	3c	2,020$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.66	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	2c	2,000$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13d8…06c4backed Yes	8c	1,950$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.29	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes	2c	1,908$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.51	274	17.5%48 W · 226 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	6c	1,894$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.71	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	9c	1,817$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.02	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	5c	1,788$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.76	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	3c	1,745$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.47	162	22.2%36 W · 126 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	5c	1,541$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.22	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	1,500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.47	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	13c	1,427$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.95	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x056d…3b69backed Yes	12c	1,398$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.11	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes	15c	1,355$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81b7…d59fbacked Yes	3c	1,349$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.59	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes	16c	1,306$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205	101	25.7%26 W · 75 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	10c	1,202$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.8	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	7c	1,200$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.2	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes	4c	1,172$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb44…d480backed Yes	16c	1,075$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	2c	1,033$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.3	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes	2c	1,000$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	46	4.3%2 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-93.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x504d…c5a4backed Yes	1c	971.24$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	12c	969.26$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.54	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	7c	939.99$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.17	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	8c	926.66$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.66	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes	15c	846.27$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	178	24.7%44 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb419…cb01backed Yes	17c	836.79$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.93	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	5c	829.1$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.56	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes	5c	800$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	171	26.9%46 W · 125 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	5c	794.77$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.33	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	4c	750$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	2c	707.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf8e…2f94backed Yes	2c	675$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.88	113	20.4%23 W · 90 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes	3c	666.29$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.32	107	10.3%11 W · 96 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	13c	663.29$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.6	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes	19c	643.19$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	-3.9wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	7c	634.73$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.54	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	11c	631.79$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.01	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	6c	628$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.6	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes	16c	627.71$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.1	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	-3.5wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	4c	600$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	599.26$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.13	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	581.04$465 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.21	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes	6c	550$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.5	119	32.8%39 W · 80 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0862…9a02backed Yes	10c	549.98$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.67	111	24.3%27 W · 84 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	5c	530.22$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.8	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0086…1b8cbacked Yes	8c	522.26$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	+137.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd928…23cabacked Yes	16c	500$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	47	14.9%7 W · 40 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77d5…eacebacked Yes	9c	498.47$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.79	100	8%8 W · 92 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	14c	494.28$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.51	245	24.9%61 W · 184 L	-13.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-45%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	9c	487$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.64	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	7c	481.87$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.58	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	7c	466.57$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.61	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed Yes	13c	463.02$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.19	83	16.9%14 W · 69 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+79.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes	16c	456$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.59	38	28.9%11 W · 27 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes	14c	440$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.2	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe53…9917backed Yes	15c	430$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.5	79	20.3%16 W · 63 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	5c	426.23$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.2	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5393…966abacked Yes	5c	422.97$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	43	25.6%11 W · 32 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+112.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x652e…4a94backed Yes	7c	418.19$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.37	133	23.3%31 W · 102 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d88…1d65backed Yes	15c	412.67$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.9	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe50e…45c5backed Yes	11c	386$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.35	69	39.1%27 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	3c	381.46$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.84	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fcc…643fbacked Yes	7c	370.32$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	95	15.8%15 W · 80 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	18c	355$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.65	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	7c	350.01$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.35	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes	14c	316.17$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	109	24.8%27 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+38.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes	15c	300$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	4c	300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed Yes	12c	300$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.23	247	32.4%80 W · 167 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event