Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed0f20b88789dbd6534e5e03292445c257aeecb60d773ae027c2284dc634dd64

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 7, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $195,787
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $124,585

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,787 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	1c	14,294$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.82	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	0c	13,770$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.77	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	13,033$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.07	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	4c	8,686$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.28	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	5,175$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.35	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	5,041$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.35	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	46	4.3%2 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-93.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	4,865$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.84	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	0c	4,290$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.08	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	3c	3,000$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	2c	2,961$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.21	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	2,689$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.22	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	1c	2,417$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.14	162	22.2%36 W · 126 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	3c	2,183$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.04	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	2,128$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.66	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ccf…bdb5backed Yes	15c	1,335$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.69	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	7c	1,245$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.9	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	8c	1,200$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.94	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	3c	1,187$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.52	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0086…1b8cbacked Yes	3c	1,155$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	+137.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x13d8…06c4backed Yes	5c	950$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.5	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes	11c	948.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	4c	709.99$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.13	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	3c	699.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	7c	621.8$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.81	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	7c	573$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	9c	557.85$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.73	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08e0…592fbacked Yes	2c	508$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.16	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	4c	500$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.4	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0898…9a5bbacked Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	98	15.3%15 W · 83 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-29%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x710c…ec59backed Yes	7c	499.99$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd928…23cabacked Yes	13c	499.91$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.56	47	14.9%7 W · 40 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	4c	480$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.28	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes	12c	449.76$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	-3.9wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	5c	420$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.01	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57b4…aae2backed Yes	6c	414.7$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.45	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x544e…86dcbacked Yes	6c	400$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.6	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0670…09c7backed Yes	13c	400$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x671f…b191backed Yes	13c	385$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.05	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb5f…1ad5backed Yes	15c	333.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	-4.4wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes	11c	330.9$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.4	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	12c	327.67$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.15	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ced…2c7ebacked Yes	7c	313.52$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.95	96	14.6%14 W · 82 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	7c	305$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.45	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc622…e1a4backed Yes	13c	295.16$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.92	54	33.3%18 W · 36 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9afc…314bbacked Yes	6c	271.45$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.94	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	13c	268.74$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.94	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68ff…ec42backed Yes	12c	241.53$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.89	90	18.9%17 W · 73 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	9c	239.53$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.71	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea5b…40cabacked Yes	12c	220.02$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.55	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes	14c	216.79$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	177	20.9%37 W · 140 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0633…5704backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	60	11.7%7 W · 53 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12f7…b645backed Yes	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.31per pick	19cpaid	+123.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc99e…3853backed Yes	14c	200$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	197	22.8%45 W · 152 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes	6c	192$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	38	28.9%11 W · 27 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	11c	148.34$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.77	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x182a…3a1cbacked Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes	10c	132.18$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.22	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd76d…9457backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	+2.3wins	+0.08per pick	28cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7172…b910backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-16%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71f…0fc7backed Yes	16c	75$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event