TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$374,968
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$278,132

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $374,968 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes4c32,531$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175.3819215.6%30 W · 162 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-53.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes3c24,000$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.6216222.2%36 W · 126 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes2c23,680$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.811834.4%8 W · 175 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+235.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes2c13,460$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.8217917.9%32 W · 147 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes2c11,958$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.5210710.3%11 W · 96 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+74.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes3c10,754$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.7632615.6%51 W · 275 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-62.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes1c8,178$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.22009%18 W · 182 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+173%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4de…c949backed Yes1c8,105$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x114a…f1d1backed Yes5c8,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004012.5%5 W · 35 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes0c6,900$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2782714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes3c6,213$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.721,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes1c5,312$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.781,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes1c5,022$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0379811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes4c4,310$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.6512227%33 W · 89 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-50.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes5c4,107$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.3757621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes5c3,987$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.7188018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes7c3,714$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.552,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes4c3,384$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.7363821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes1c3,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1856817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes1c2,598$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1384616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes1c2,479$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.145535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes3c2,459$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.731,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes0c2,224$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0417419%33 W · 141 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes6c2,200$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.0741610.6%44 W · 372 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes1c2,100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.751410.5%54 W · 460 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes3c2,082$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5332613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes5c2,063$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2515128.5%43 W · 108 L+0.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes2c1,900$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7118511.4%21 W · 164 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fac…3e5abacked Yes4c1,809$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.63026.7%8 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes6c1,708$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4688017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes2c1,514$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9530317.2%52 W · 251 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes7c1,500$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.512810.9%14 W · 114 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-61.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes2c1,404$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.26026.7%16 W · 44 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c1,389$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.91,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes3c1,324$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5429113.1%38 W · 253 L-0.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes4c1,205$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6888610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes1c1,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121015%5 W · 96 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-67.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes3c1,187$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.271,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes4c1,177$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505249.9%52 W · 472 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes1c1,149$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5115221.1%32 W · 120 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbf3…aaa0backed Yes9c1,122$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.561921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes1c1,112$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.241194.2%5 W · 114 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes2c1,078$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0210510.5%11 W · 94 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes3c976.62$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9928912.8%37 W · 252 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf829…0688backed Yes2c861.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.035339.6%21 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes4c856.94$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.064112.2%5 W · 36 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick5cpaid+102.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes4c782.9$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.521,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x544e…86dcbacked Yes3c700$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.85012%6 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes2c688.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.471824.4%8 W · 174 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd928…23cabacked Yes4c663.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.744714.9%7 W · 40 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes3c661.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.41,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca20…ae4ebacked Yes8c584.76$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.094431.8%14 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf520…f05dbacked Yes4c583.47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.741811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-62.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes6c556.36$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2415817.7%28 W · 130 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes2c500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5758011.4%66 W · 514 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf8e…2f94backed Yes2c500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1211320.4%23 W · 90 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a09…3c89backed Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes3c500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7932716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes7c499.96$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3512914%18 W · 111 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes3c489.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5925012.8%32 W · 218 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-54.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcc…5c9bbacked Yes4c480$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.88130%0 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes6c449.73$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2240016.8%67 W · 333 L-0.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe608…f6e8backed Yes4c437.83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.177252.8%38 W · 34 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes6c410.55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.651159.6%11 W · 104 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe50e…45c5backed Yes4c381.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.186939.1%27 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf37…2454backed Yes7c300$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.41353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+81%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes4c287.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1242110%42 W · 379 L+1.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes4c285.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.437828.7%68 W · 714 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes7c200.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1842424.5%104 W · 320 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0633…5704backed Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146011.7%7 W · 53 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes7c200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1373215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72be…67b8backed Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.89724.7%24 W · 73 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e8f…2bb4backed Yes9c180.01$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes6c176.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1947510.5%50 W · 425 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc3…d8e9backed Yes9c165.89$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes7c150$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9540719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9afc…314bbacked Yes9c130.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.29160%0 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd76d…9457backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102835.7%10 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick28cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.