Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd5d06a9a3782e73859ea1bbcfc729b88f92da9a117f0550ac450d11efd46b28

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 7, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $354,717
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $243,557

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $354,717 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 215 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	12c	27,544$3,439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,438.97	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	8c	14,631$1,101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,101.21	162	22.2%36 W · 126 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	19c	11,968$2,299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,298.9	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	15c	10,728$1,640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,639.93	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x114a…f1d1backed Yes	13c	8,000$1,040 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,040	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	14c	7,938$1,147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,146.66	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	11c	6,346$703 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$703.42	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	9c	6,247$543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$543.29	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	14c	5,707$796 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$795.65	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	5c	5,691$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.19	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	6c	5,443$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.15	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	8c	5,274$404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$404.08	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed No	79c	4,978$3,950 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,027.93	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf9…b9ccbacked Yes	22c	4,697$1,033 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,033.25	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+102.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	15c	4,169$620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$620.17	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	12c	4,063$487 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$487.29	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	11c	3,876$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424.47	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes	21c	3,799$791 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$790.97	151	28.5%43 W · 108 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	1c	3,333$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.89	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	12c	2,999$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.7	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes	6c	2,695$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.4	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	7c	2,689$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.13	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4de…c949backed Yes	29c	2,571$752 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$751.95	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	8c	2,514$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.5	245	24.9%61 W · 184 L	-13.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-45%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No	76c	2,499$1,889 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$610.1	158	44.9%71 W · 87 L	+12.4wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	5c	2,415$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.31	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	8c	2,350$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.65	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes	12c	2,334$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	-3.5wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	2,160$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.23	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	7c	2,100$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.82	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe133…6994backed Yes	7c	2,052$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.12	104	32.7%34 W · 70 L	+5.2wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	20c	2,036$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.06	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4d…5762backed Yes	19c	2,020$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392.46	63	50.8%32 W · 31 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes	11c	1,961$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.88	119	32.8%39 W · 80 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	5c	1,847$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.7	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e5a…935fbacked No	75c	1,825$1,371 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$454.4	48	35.4%17 W · 31 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	12c	1,782$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.31	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	7c	1,643$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.8	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	17c	1,564$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.94	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes	14c	1,519$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.06	199	30.7%61 W · 138 L	+13.6wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x102b…a7acbacked Yes	11c	1,455$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.86	38	23.7%9 W · 29 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes	15c	1,341$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.57	107	10.3%11 W · 96 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	4c	1,262$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.45	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	13c	1,233$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.34	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	21c	1,213$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	73c	1,174$858 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$315.96	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5381…1ec5backed No	75c	1,039$783 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255.88	55	45.5%25 W · 30 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	23c	1,000$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	14c	1,000$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.7	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	11c	967.47$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.02	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes	19c	951.45$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.74	65	40%26 W · 39 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13d8…06c4backed Yes	4c	949.98$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9df…d830backed Yes	12c	934.12$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.55	160	17.5%28 W · 132 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes	17c	914.89$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.21	292	27.7%81 W · 211 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	20c	887.52$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.53	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	8c	862.97$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.94	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	5c	845.11$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes	14c	844.2$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.87	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	8c	816.18$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.59	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No	78c	802.59$624 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$178.77	35	57.1%20 W · 15 L	+2.8wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	22c	787.94$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.38	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes	20c	779.51$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	16c	774.6$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.81	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd76d…9457backed Yes	15c	722.5$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	+2.3wins	+0.08per pick	28cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb44…d480backed Yes	21c	707.55$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.89	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb29c…d8b9backed Yes	4c	700$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes	2c	700$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	280	16.4%46 W · 234 L	+8.8wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	4c	699.97$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.66	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes	19c	672.71$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.51	151	36.4%55 W · 96 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd928…23cabacked Yes	10c	664.97$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.89	47	14.9%7 W · 40 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca20…ae4ebacked Yes	16c	619.09$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.38	44	31.8%14 W · 30 L	+3.6wins	+0.08per pick	24cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes	16c	615$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.25	128	10.9%14 W · 114 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	13c	600$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81b7…d59fbacked Yes	2c	598.29$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.66	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	5c	588.45$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.25	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	10c	532.11$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.24	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c0f…a214backed Yes	19c	529.48$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	25cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	5c	519.99$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.44	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7741…23e6backed Yes	19c	505.16$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.27	69	36.2%25 W · 44 L	+4.1wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	11c	487.65$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.28	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No	80c	472.9$378 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.05	73	71.2%52 W · 21 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	73cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes	17c	452.06$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.67	68	32.4%22 W · 46 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes	6c	418.17$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	267	22.8%61 W · 206 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes	4c	400$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.91	101	5%5 W · 96 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked Yes	19c	389.48$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.65	69	20.3%14 W · 55 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	+207.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	17c	369.34$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.54	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes	6c	357.83$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.03	230	19.1%44 W · 186 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	4c	343$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.29	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6d3…71cfbacked Yes	30c	334$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.73	86	34.9%30 W · 56 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	22c	332.55$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.89	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae4…4c34backed Yes	4c	331.42$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.91	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.11per pick	14cpaid	+62.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fac…3e5abacked Yes	16c	318.84$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	16c	304.96$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.88	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x544e…86dcbacked Yes	6c	300$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.96	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	19c	294.9$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a09…3c89backed Yes	23c	289.12$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.75	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f7…9ed6backed Yes	12c	288.9$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.23	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aed…5925backed Yes	27c	286$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.6	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	7c	283.38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes	5c	279.22$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.22	126	42.9%54 W · 72 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event