Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ac391e5a813bb939a3679cc7ddf4ce0621018a47fa473fe17b4ab78cbb0e52b

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 7, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $341,819
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $217,452

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $341,819 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 309 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	20c	32,508$6,543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,543.44	186	16.1%30 W · 156 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes	0c	9,963$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.23	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	17c	8,104$1,354 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,354.26	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6be…a543backed Yes	31c	7,705$2,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,400	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	5c	6,174$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294.69	797	11.3%90 W · 707 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	12c	6,049$732 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$732.24	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed Yes	25c	5,114$1,255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,255	169	41.4%70 W · 99 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes	23c	4,578$1,070 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,070.11	48	35.4%17 W · 31 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	25c	4,442$1,109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,109.16	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	20c	4,220$860 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$860.46	994	10.6%105 W · 889 L	-30.0wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed No	73c	4,088$3,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,087.99	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes	3c	4,045$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.24	35	34.3%12 W · 23 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13d8…06c4backed Yes	4c	3,950$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.5	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	4c	3,730$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.42	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	14c	3,411$477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$476.76	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	31c	3,286$1,020 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,019.89	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	15c	3,171$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$469.99	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	25c	3,136$785 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$784.94	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x114a…f1d1backed Yes	1c	3,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	38	13.2%5 W · 33 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	35c	3,000$1,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,050	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	76c	2,983$2,277 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$706.06	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	17c	2,908$507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$506.91	563	29.8%168 W · 395 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	16c	2,711$441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440.56	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes	30c	2,620$777 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$776.88	151	28.5%43 W · 108 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	18c	2,551$467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$466.81	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked Yes	13c	2,501$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333	158	44.9%71 W · 87 L	+12.4wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2127…37f2backed No	72c	2,500$1,810 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$689.98	108	66.7%72 W · 36 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	62cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	34c	2,477$831 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$830.54	532	22.7%121 W · 411 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No	60c	2,178$1,306 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$872.16	219	59.8%131 W · 88 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	19c	2,166$404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$403.74	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	17c	2,131$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.53	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	6c	2,100$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.7	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	26c	2,088$534 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$533.85	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	13c	2,088$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.08	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	21c	2,050$438 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$438.5	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	34c	2,000$682 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$682.04	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x00dc…d521backed Yes	17c	2,000$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.99	43	30.2%13 W · 30 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	18c	1,870$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.6	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes	20c	1,822$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.92	173	35.3%61 W · 112 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	14c	1,821$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.25	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No	41c	1,808$742 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,065.19	125	28%35 W · 90 L	+10.0wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1aed…5925backed Yes	22c	1,712$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.76	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	1,689$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.97	552	5.6%31 W · 521 L	+15.6wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b3c…1a17backed Yes	3c	1,682$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.1	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-90.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes	26c	1,643$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423.99	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	-3.5wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed No	79c	1,603$1,272 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$331.05	119	26.9%32 W · 87 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes	29c	1,600$456 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$456.48	119	32.8%39 W · 80 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb419…cb01backed Yes	19c	1,595$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.57	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes	20c	1,584$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.93	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	18c	1,544$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.28	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b1a…639dbacked Yes	13c	1,540$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.2	40	25%10 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	16c	1,500$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No	76c	1,491$1,140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$350.59	101	51.5%52 W · 49 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	70c	1,293$905 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$388.03	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	17c	1,286$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.67	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	13c	1,260$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.98	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x81fb…25f3backed No	80c	1,250$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	34	79.4%27 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	77cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x26dc…e03abacked Yes	25c	1,212$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.54	202	22.8%46 W · 156 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ccf…bdb5backed Yes	22c	1,125$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.19	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes	22c	1,086$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.53	178	24.7%44 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	13c	1,062$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.89	1,040	13.7%142 W · 898 L	+38.1wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	7c	1,049$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.02	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	21c	1,043$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.72	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	21c	1,038$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.28	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes	8c	1,010$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.8	159	29.6%47 W · 112 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4363…c153backed No	79c	1,006$790 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$215.31	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed No	64c	1,005$643 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$362.57	574	20.9%120 W · 454 L	+9.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	18c	1,004$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.48	129	14%18 W · 111 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	13c	1,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x079a…d3dfbacked No	79c	980.97$779 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$201.94	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.11per pick	54cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa4a…fc9bbacked Yes	28c	956.19$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.36	90	35.6%32 W · 58 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	80c	953.49$762 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.37	246	72.8%179 W · 67 L	+15.5wins	+0.06per pick	66cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked No	69c	948.64$657 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$292.08	630	21.7%137 W · 493 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe53…9917backed Yes	18c	941.5$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.49	79	20.3%16 W · 63 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x292f…918dbacked Yes	13c	939.48$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	58	32.8%19 W · 39 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	+2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	27c	937.36$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No	79c	928.21$729 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$199.24	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+14%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb641…34ffbacked Yes	22c	927.11$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	51cpaid	-48.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd5a…2ff7backed Yes	14c	909.41$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.76	147	21.8%32 W · 115 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	25c	904.1$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.17	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	20c	887.38$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.99	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	21c	863.16$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.4	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	18c	850.79$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.31	154	7.8%12 W · 142 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58a5…ec93backed No	80c	837.13$669 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168.39	30	83.3%25 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	80cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes	22c	799.84$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.96	154	35.1%54 W · 100 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	19c	777.48$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.61	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03c2…f725backed Yes	17c	760.59$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.39	38	28.9%11 W · 27 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0862…9a02backed Yes	20c	749.9$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.98	110	24.5%27 W · 83 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes	24c	740.25$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	8c	700.06$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.03	324	15.7%51 W · 273 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	28c	700$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes	20c	695.96$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.19	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1425…d60dbacked Yes	12c	676$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.44	107	42.1%45 W · 62 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa980…583ebacked Yes	9c	663.78$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.74	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	+4.9wins	+0.11per pick	26cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x53e1…6a12backed Yes	17c	643.94$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.47	39	28.2%11 W · 28 L	+2.4wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	+14%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	16c	635.49$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.29	826	14.9%123 W · 703 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	19c	618.27$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.1	288	12.8%37 W · 251 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes	32c	616.12$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed No	59c	615.33$366 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$249.52	876	18.4%161 W · 715 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	19c	605.87$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.67	405	19.8%80 W · 325 L	-18.3wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event