Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe0e64547856a9f58b3cdb315755f8b722bc29ffeffe8c654b3ab0f73b347c1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x107c…ab15backed Yes | 0c | 46,977$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.05 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 18c | 3,213$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 75c | 1,065$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.39 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 35c | 973.08$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.73 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 76c | 852.22$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.51 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 7c | 800$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 657.64$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 11c | 430$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 18c | 404.02$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.94 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811a…9a3cbacked Yes | 14c | 393.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 28c | 340.84$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 28c | 317.82$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.43 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 21c | 292.55$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 5c | 279.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked No | 76c | 263.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.14 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 9c | 237.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 73c | 200.25$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 193.19$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 67c | 191.97$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 16c | 187.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 27c | 182.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.65 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 174.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.74 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 171.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 22c | 160.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 12c | 152.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 33c | 145.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes | 22c | 133.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 27c | 132.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 130.06$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 76c | 129$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 30c | 124.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.52 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 35c | 123.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 34c | 108.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.1 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b6…867fbacked Yes | 19c | 98.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +157.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 97.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 20c | 82.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.38 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 75c | 74.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 69c | 64.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 56c | 64.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 64.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 68c | 62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 57c | 60.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 19c | 59.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 25c | 56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 52c | 55.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 53.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 50.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 80c | 49.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 63c | 49.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked No | 80c | 49.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 22c | 48.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 47.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e0…77e4backed Yes | 23c | 47.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2f…d29ebacked Yes | 25c | 41.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 24c | 41.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 79c | 41.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccf…ef8abacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed No | 66c | 33.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 72c | 30.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 75c | 29.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 35c | 28.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 74c | 28.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 80c | 24.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 52c | 23.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 75c | 23.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0114…f0b9backed No | 80c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…1676backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 80c | 14.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.