Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1601e113ad69aa439dbe8bb6de49b5bdfff51192f4ffae764c1c75970afd257a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 20c | 2,693$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.23 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 6c | 1,008$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 74c | 891.04$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.42 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 693.75$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.41 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed Yes | 2c | 622.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 36c | 613.73$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 11c | 583.88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 5c | 453.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 28c | 401.89$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.65 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811a…9a3cbacked Yes | 14c | 386.1$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 357.22$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.35 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 37c | 312.64$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.15 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 310.5$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.63 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 19c | 299.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 18c | 284.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 6c | 254.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 42c | 226.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 17c | 217.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 7c | 214.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 214$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 77c | 210.53$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 208.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 207.2$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 22c | 204.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 196.51$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 7c | 171.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 74c | 153.24$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 20c | 145.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 78c | 143.82$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.86 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 61c | 129$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d6…11adbacked Yes | 34c | 119.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 25c | 111.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 106.88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 10c | 105.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…be51backed Yes | 36c | 103.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda04…6c48backed Yes | 18c | 99.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 71c | 99.33$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 72c | 96.16$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 95.44$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes | 24c | 91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…ab15backed Yes | 14c | 87.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 74c | 87.75$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 79c | 84.13$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…c1fdbacked No | 79c | 82.61$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 60c | 80.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…13c3backed Yes | 24c | 79.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 72c | 78.83$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 60c | 78.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 15c | 76.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x12df…64d2backed Yes | 16c | 75.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 72c | 71.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…888ebacked Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 79c | 60.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 74c | 57.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 57.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 72c | 55.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 71c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 51.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 63c | 49.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 26c | 46.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…27fbbacked Yes | 22c | 46.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 22c | 46.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 35c | 32.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 80c | 30.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e27…d5babacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b3…f95ebacked No | 70c | 27.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 21.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 69c | 17.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 76c | 17.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed No | 78c | 16.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.