Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcbc39a0c8280fbc973444c1f49e9d2a76e5164c4315cdd6497ead8bd16131de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x107c…ab15backed Yes | 0c | 15,674$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 4c | 3,965$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.47 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 13c | 855.03$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.84 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 8c | 483.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 5c | 465.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 72c | 350.11$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.42 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 4c | 339.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 7c | 303.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 9c | 302.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x811a…9a3cbacked Yes | 5c | 296.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 15c | 293.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.34 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed Yes | 76c | 263.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 66c | 226.89$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 6c | 218.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 5c | 201.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 177.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 175$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 10c | 166.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.64 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked No | 63c | 159.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 66c | 158$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.77 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b6…867fbacked Yes | 8c | 152.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +157.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 30c | 149.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.32 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 41c | 144.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.81 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 67c | 123.69$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 22c | 117.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 33c | 116.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.55 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 50c | 102.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed No | 48c | 85.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 35c | 84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…6a1abacked No | 27c | 80.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 37c | 77.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes | 30c | 75.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 74c | 72.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 63c | 67.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 37c | 57.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…7573backed Yes | 25c | 56.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 54.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 35c | 53.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 31c | 50.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 30c | 40.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 63c | 35.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 32c | 33.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 32.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 61c | 28.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 72c | 26.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 79c | 21.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 72c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 80c | 15.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.