Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ce4de024cce626e3d80ef0c0cdc602585fea7d0f838bf86af6e5582d5edcee7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 1,157$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 2c | 992$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 8c | 571.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 55c | 420.47$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.19 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 384.79$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 33c | 314.59$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.21 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 37c | 299.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.99 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 12c | 291.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 5c | 260.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 14c | 252.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 215.06$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 19c | 196$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 40c | 175$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 165.16$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 16c | 149.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 42c | 138$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 17c | 116.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 104$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 23c | 86.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 83.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 80.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2087…35e5backed Yes | 19c | 77.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 20c | 76.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 17c | 76.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 16c | 75.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 31c | 72.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 41c | 71.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 23c | 69.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 64.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf305…62a3backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes | 19c | 52.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 52.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 59c | 51.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 31c | 51.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…a2d2backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 41c | 49.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7a83backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 45c | 37.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 39c | 31.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…d4c9backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 36c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9901backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…362abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 70c | 23.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…005cbacked No | 73c | 13.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.