TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Atlanta Dreamof Atlanta Dream, Toronto Tempo
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$121,937
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$125,557

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,937 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x27f7…44b0backed Atlanta Dream79c12,191$9,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,523.3736154%195 W · 166 L+0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Atlanta Dream78c12,161$9,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,675.48159.3%48 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Atlanta Dream78c10,694$8,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,382.8883748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Toronto Tempo21c10,588$2,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,216.726735.8%24 W · 43 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Toronto Tempo23c8,563$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0007236.1%26 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bff…fc26backed Toronto Tempo21c6,894$1,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,447.748937.1%33 W · 56 L-8.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Atlanta Dream79c6,349$5,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,309.4378548.8%383 W · 402 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbfb…84a6backed Toronto Tempo22c5,773$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1852…cb4ebacked Toronto Tempo20c5,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.992817.9%5 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-41.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0d9…f1c5backed Toronto Tempo20c3,540$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.1933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Atlanta Dream79c3,500$2,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74917946.4%83 W · 96 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Toronto Tempo22c3,363$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.7413256.8%75 W · 57 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Atlanta Dream77c2,859$2,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.87740.3%31 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Toronto Tempo1c2,648$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4644915.6%70 W · 379 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50d0…a6fcbacked Atlanta Dream79c2,538$2,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.97366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick78cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Toronto Tempo21c2,520$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.9589349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Toronto Tempo21c2,466$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.482626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-43.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Atlanta Dream77c2,338$1,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.7819458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked Toronto Tempo21c2,162$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.451060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+17.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaaeb…9ec2backed Toronto Tempo7c2,153$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.08850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3116…b30dbacked Atlanta Dream79c2,108$1,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.76475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Toronto Tempo22c1,868$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.336750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Dream75c1,782$1,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.121,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Toronto Tempo21c1,675$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.740550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Atlanta Dream79c1,550$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.44766%31 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Toronto Tempo22c1,543$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.5136454.1%197 W · 167 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ec6…d9edbacked Toronto Tempo5c1,400$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.39318.3%17 W · 76 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Toronto Tempo13c1,384$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.2934726.5%92 W · 255 L-20.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Toronto Tempo22c1,045$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.4511250%56 W · 56 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Toronto Tempo28c1,030$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.0615250.7%77 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Toronto Tempo16c1,016$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.7316633.1%55 W · 111 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb209…b744backed Toronto Tempo5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509036.7%33 W · 57 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3a6…71bdbacked Atlanta Dream79c989.38$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.775657.1%32 W · 24 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Atlanta Dream73c886.76$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.3361042.5%259 W · 351 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd60…396cbacked Toronto Tempo25c880$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2207638.2%29 W · 47 L-7.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-22%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Toronto Tempo10c869.81$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9850952.5%267 W · 242 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Toronto Tempo22c861$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.4241145.7%188 W · 223 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Tempo20c709$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.812751.2%65 W · 62 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Atlanta Dream79c685.6$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.8385158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0373…4057backed Toronto Tempo26c666$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.168733.3%29 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8867…518cbacked Atlanta Dream79c659.98$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Toronto Tempo16c640.53$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9510634.9%37 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037d…22a4backed Toronto Tempo8c620.71$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.41127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-49.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Toronto Tempo6c595.83$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7510838.9%42 W · 66 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cb5…7ce9backed Atlanta Dream74c545.08$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.72742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Toronto Tempo22c533.16$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.0319031.1%59 W · 131 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x722a…d6edbacked Atlanta Dream79c505.26$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.061656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc3c…d6c2backed Toronto Tempo21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1053342.4%14 W · 19 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Atlanta Dream77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11532750.2%164 W · 163 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Toronto Tempo21c473.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007520%15 W · 60 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd654…45c2backed Toronto Tempo27c470$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.94060%24 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed Toronto Tempo21c458.23$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3410538.1%40 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Atlanta Dream74c445.18$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.9932049.4%158 W · 162 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Toronto Tempo15c433.8$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.426934.8%24 W · 45 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Toronto Tempo26c423.09$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11071245.4%323 W · 389 L-19.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29d9…724ebacked Toronto Tempo25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-47.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9be…08bebacked Toronto Tempo26c385$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-44.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a21…4aa9backed Toronto Tempo22c381.82$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841625%4 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Toronto Tempo21c363$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2321446.3%99 W · 115 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a6…6991backed Toronto Tempo22c323.55$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705633.9%19 W · 37 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf76d…4052backed Atlanta Dream79c322.78$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.782272.7%16 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked Toronto Tempo25c320$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed Toronto Tempo22c318.18$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707829.5%23 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Toronto Tempo30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9013024.6%32 W · 98 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Atlanta Dream78c300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.722437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Atlanta Dream80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.1313844.9%62 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc825…6696backed Toronto Tempo28c289.28$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x63df…63d1backed Toronto Tempo7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207638.2%29 W · 47 L+8.2wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+35.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Toronto Tempo25c277.17$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2330734.2%105 W · 202 L-28.2wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-23.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Toronto Tempo5c274.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7438645.9%177 W · 209 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae34…3a8abacked Atlanta Dream75c266.57$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.691172.7%8 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick73cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Atlanta Dream67c248.66$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.0655255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Atlanta Dream77c238.68$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.37368.5%50 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedfa…fd66backed Toronto Tempo5c236.28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.812524%6 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-55.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeec3…6bd2backed Toronto Tempo13c229.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.81145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd72d…0dbbbacked Toronto Tempo27c229.22$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.612123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Toronto Tempo15c221.4$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2719428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Atlanta Dream69c212.76$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.7613358.6%78 W · 55 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b8a…9c2fbacked Toronto Tempo19c210.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Toronto Tempo11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229214.1%13 W · 79 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d59…f7e5backed Toronto Tempo18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364852.1%25 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa68…ba5dbacked Toronto Tempo17c199.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348053.8%43 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf990…88bcbacked Toronto Tempo22c199.97$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.993135.5%11 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Atlanta Dream79c177$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1721150.2%106 W · 105 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Toronto Tempo11c175$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.948837.5%33 W · 55 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Toronto Tempo11c174.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8174942.3%317 W · 432 L-21.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x707a…8d21backed Toronto Tempo23c173.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc19…31c4backed Toronto Tempo24c173.6$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.191650%8 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+62.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdefb…5b50backed Toronto Tempo20c172.71$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.413727%10 W · 27 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe481…d138backed Toronto Tempo24c170$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.129430.9%29 W · 65 L-9.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-27.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8521…df10backed Toronto Tempo11c152$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.962931%9 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf504…0111backed Atlanta Dream79c150.96$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.797964.6%51 W · 28 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e4b…0a04backed Atlanta Dream67c147.16$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.562653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d5f…84bfbacked Atlanta Dream80c137.5$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.58953.9%48 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f9…c9a7backed Atlanta Dream78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.21633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ccf…ef8abacked Atlanta Dream80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254763.8%30 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Toronto Tempo11c124.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6915654.5%85 W · 71 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Atlanta Dream79c119.91$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9610453.8%56 W · 48 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Toronto Tempo22c114.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2560%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf49…b4a5backed Toronto Tempo22c114.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.