TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Portland Fire vs. Seattle Storm

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Portland Fireof Portland Fire, Seattle Storm
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$297,429
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$292,640

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $297,429 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 234 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6820…1c19backed Portland Fire48c41,483$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,483.183754.1%20 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Seattle Storm21c14,699$3,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,101.7934826.4%92 W · 256 L-21.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Portland Fire72c11,770$8,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,298.351,01247.9%485 W · 527 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Seattle Storm59c10,962$6,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,519.8339450.5%199 W · 195 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa96e…bb89backed Seattle Storm0c10,500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid-37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce36…2b99backed Seattle Storm31c10,031$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,120.38137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick28cpaid-69.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x160d…5295backed Seattle Storm51c10,000$5,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,062.84742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Portland Fire46c8,886$4,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,834.8428753.3%153 W · 134 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Portland Fire41c8,173$3,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,821.91369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+33.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2918…fe4abacked Seattle Storm14c7,487$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.154139%16 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9337…a410backed Seattle Storm22c5,605$1,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,242.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Seattle Storm19c5,574$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.432725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-45.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Storm24c5,386$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.1532849.4%162 W · 166 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Storm46c4,266$1,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,973.641,78751.7%924 W · 863 L+54.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4e…e5b7backed Portland Fire50c4,136$2,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,088.664100%4 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+367.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Portland Fire80c3,834$3,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.3538940.9%159 W · 230 L-14.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Seattle Storm54c3,607$1,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,930.2347246.8%221 W · 251 L-1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb25…62edbacked Seattle Storm14c3,492$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Seattle Storm53c3,357$1,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,790.1819847.5%94 W · 104 L+0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04e6…3914backed Seattle Storm60c3,135$1,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,881.2310463.5%66 W · 38 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+19.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeaa9…c084backed Seattle Storm59c2,998$1,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,768.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Seattle Storm52c2,785$1,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,452.0731443%135 W · 179 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb525…bdc7backed Portland Fire72c2,781$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.79580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+37.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad0b…a514backed Seattle Storm42c2,600$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.9814541.4%60 W · 85 L-10.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Portland Fire52c2,567$1,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230.58742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed Portland Fire41c2,553$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,506.497841%32 W · 46 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x91b6…4b40backed Seattle Storm36c2,511$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.6612434.7%43 W · 81 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7106…1caabacked Portland Fire59c2,369$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.43850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-22.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7120…7c4ebacked Seattle Storm4c2,345$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.638327.7%23 W · 60 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc48…7294backed Seattle Storm59c2,342$1,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,381.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Portland Fire72c2,231$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.726063.3%38 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c9…617dbacked Portland Fire40c2,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2007948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Seattle Storm50c2,000$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.9715048%72 W · 78 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Seattle Storm50c1,828$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.3741446.6%193 W · 221 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Seattle Storm52c1,807$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.9514942.3%63 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Seattle Storm57c1,754$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002669.2%18 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Seattle Storm55c1,753$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.8825247.6%120 W · 132 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd88a…a7e4backed Portland Fire47c1,562$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.68580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf807…c5dcbacked Seattle Storm10c1,500$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.331717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-68.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Storm53c1,460$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.1285948.4%416 W · 443 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa22b…3525backed Seattle Storm36c1,444$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f6…673abacked Portland Fire48c1,443$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.98450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab9d…cf12backed Seattle Storm18c1,352$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Seattle Storm13c1,319$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.0532148.6%156 W · 165 L+0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Seattle Storm54c1,196$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.0117946.4%83 W · 96 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Portland Fire52c1,189$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.7519658.2%114 W · 82 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Seattle Storm19c1,050$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.5128.3%1 W · 11 L-4.0wins-0.33per pick42cpaid-83.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x68cb…6872backed Seattle Storm33c1,048$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3503933.3%13 W · 26 L-5.6wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-45.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa406…bd18backed Seattle Storm58c1,025$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.432352.2%12 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Portland Fire40c1,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6008844.3%39 W · 49 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabe6…4797backed Seattle Storm58c999.95$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.971833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Seattle Storm52c999.8$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.4333839.9%135 W · 203 L-19.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9b4…9fc9backed Seattle Storm53c967.29$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.67812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick43cpaid-74.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Seattle Storm24c912.66$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.3313956.8%79 W · 60 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Portland Fire76c906.49$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.9615351%78 W · 75 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Seattle Storm10c894.16$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9210440.4%42 W · 62 L-0.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Portland Fire56c890$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.92263.6%14 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Seattle Storm57c873.67$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.291947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Seattle Storm40c872.06$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.9585158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x911b…344fbacked Portland Fire45c867.4$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.43545.7%16 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x547f…2937backed Seattle Storm61c845.3$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.631926.3%5 W · 14 L-4.8wins-0.25per pick52cpaid-45.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7a26…1589backed Portland Fire61c819.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.67540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Seattle Storm9c799.92$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.29513.7%13 W · 82 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90a1…fb15backed Seattle Storm46c777.61$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.311735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-36.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe65b…271bbacked Seattle Storm53c777.36$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41210348.5%50 W · 53 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Seattle Storm58c776.33$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.166240.3%25 W · 37 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3e6b…8a98backed Seattle Storm58c701.53$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.151723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-32.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed Seattle Storm19c652.25$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.022560%15 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Portland Fire61c649.7$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.0931249.4%154 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Seattle Storm52c648$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.9656455.1%311 W · 253 L+27.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd51b…90a8backed Portland Fire62c647.7$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2493762.2%23 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c26…d474backed Seattle Storm32c625$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012846.1%59 W · 69 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Portland Fire40c620.81$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.4914445.1%65 W · 79 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Seattle Storm34c619.38$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.6251147.2%241 W · 270 L-2.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Portland Fire40c613.78$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.2742046.7%196 W · 224 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Portland Fire64c600$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.513844.9%62 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4cf…0e95backed Seattle Storm34c599.99$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2025752.6%30 W · 27 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x34b8…81afbacked Portland Fire42c595.24$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.245844.8%26 W · 32 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x94c1…8036backed Portland Fire66c579$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.181926.3%5 W · 14 L-5.7wins-0.30per pick56cpaid-59.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Seattle Storm52c549.4$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.4561242.3%259 W · 353 L-31.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Seattle Storm21c545.73$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.3432047.8%153 W · 167 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Seattle Storm52c535$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.8476142.7%325 W · 436 L-19.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Seattle Storm12c532.09$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6835118.5%65 W · 286 L-49.3wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-57.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x68cb…0000backed Seattle Storm15c529.34$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.021973.7%14 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x060d…d746backed Portland Fire76c529.1$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.12065%13 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Portland Fire42c512.39$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.994759.6%28 W · 19 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Portland Fire41c500$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2959439.4%37 W · 57 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdfe…9483backed Seattle Storm27c500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1352142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85b3…33efbacked Seattle Storm20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+43%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Portland Fire42c484.56$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.1724847.6%118 W · 130 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Seattle Storm31c466.54$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.9229548.5%143 W · 152 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Seattle Storm16c463.86$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.535254.3%191 W · 161 L+21.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Storm3c460.63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7426147.1%123 W · 138 L+15.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4dd2…9014backed Portland Fire65c459.28$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.282755.6%15 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8557…6f88backed Seattle Storm38c458$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.944156.1%23 W · 18 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+24.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Seattle Storm13c446.15$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58918.8%8 W · 83 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-54.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Portland Fire56c443.98$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.9837054.1%200 W · 170 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x42b7…5cd6backed Seattle Storm4c425$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ebb…2b75backed Seattle Storm58c423.72$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.761650%8 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Seattle Storm58c403.07$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.486544.6%29 W · 36 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.