WNBA · resolved market

Spread: Seattle Storm (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5838cf80f5a987553e382f3067ba97ab1b557575793f5c1e197b89df2c9cbcf3

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Portland Fireof Seattle Storm, Portland Fire
Resolved: Aug 15, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $49,386
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $49,775

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,386 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in WNBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4df3…788fbacked Portland Fire	44c	15,521$6,887 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,634.51	394	50.5%199 W · 195 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Seattle Storm	56c	13,176$7,366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,365.95	77	49.4%38 W · 39 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1681…5032backed Portland Fire	49c	4,930$2,416 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,514.17	71	59.2%42 W · 29 L	+5.7wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Seattle Storm	51c	3,500$1,785 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,784.98	137	46%63 W · 74 L	-6.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-11%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba43…c6c0backed Portland Fire	46c	2,609$1,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,408.67	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabe6…4797backed Seattle Storm	53c	2,535$1,355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,354.7	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-3.0wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-35%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2206…49d6backed Portland Fire	58c	2,326$1,348 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$977.91	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdfe…9483backed Seattle Storm	53c	2,048$1,086 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,085.51	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b5…c5a8backed Seattle Storm	53c	2,028$1,075 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,074.8	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Seattle Storm	51c	1,566$799 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$799.2	904	49.4%447 W · 457 L	+5.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Portland Fire	50c	1,469$731 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$738.49	295	48.5%143 W · 152 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd19…3f54backed Portland Fire	47c	1,240$583 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$657.33	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-21%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Portland Fire	58c	1,099$637 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$461.69	22	63.6%14 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	65cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8987…02f3backed Seattle Storm	57c	1,000$570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$570.19	76	55.3%42 W · 34 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Seattle Storm	54c	820.21$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.91	120	57.5%69 W · 51 L	+9.6wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xea48…c596backed Seattle Storm	56c	658.95$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.36	115	40%46 W · 69 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Portland Fire	47c	628.95$293 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$336.23	932	48.8%455 W · 477 L	+9.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb797…e779backed Seattle Storm	53c	600$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.31per pick	51cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x584f…54b9backed Seattle Storm	52c	484$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.84	157	46.5%73 W · 84 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Seattle Storm	51c	416.68$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.53	179	46.9%84 W · 95 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0daa…ae42backed Portland Fire	50c	400$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.19per pick	56cpaid	+32%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5145…dd71backed Seattle Storm	52c	399.98$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.99	92	51.1%47 W · 45 L	+8.6wins	+0.09per pick	42cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Seattle Storm	55c	363.64$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-3.1wins	-0.19per pick	51cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Portland Fire	44c	360.8$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200.89	136	49.3%67 W · 69 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Storm	19c	356.72$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.8	1,632	50.2%819 W · 813 L	+37.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Seattle Storm	54c	353$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.09	328	50.3%165 W · 163 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Storm	46c	344.93$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.56	1,787	51.7%924 W · 863 L	+54.1wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Portland Fire	46c	320$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.8	65	44.6%29 W · 36 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Portland Fire	50c	247.22$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.61	90	51.1%46 W · 44 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9800…d1b1backed Seattle Storm	53c	230.19$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f93…a687backed Seattle Storm	54c	200$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-6.8wins	-0.21per pick	53cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x85b3…33efbacked Seattle Storm	51c	197.85$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+2.1wins	+0.27per pick	48cpaid	+43%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Portland Fire	47c	194.65$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.19	307	34.2%105 W · 202 L	-28.2wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x2d42…eb8ebacked Portland Fire	53c	188.68$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.68	39	41%16 W · 23 L	-4.8wins	-0.12per pick	53cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf452…4d43backed Seattle Storm	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	71	60.6%43 W · 28 L	+5.7wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Seattle Storm	54c	185.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	120	45%54 W · 66 L	-9.4wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-15%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf698…a7e7backed Seattle Storm	55c	181.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdf5…d359backed Seattle Storm	24c	165.95$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	79	44.3%35 W · 44 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Seattle Storm	47c	159.21$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.83	472	46.8%221 W · 251 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6bf…8380backed Seattle Storm	50c	153.06$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.53	58	58.6%34 W · 24 L	+5.2wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ad1…b4c5backed Portland Fire	46c	145.34$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.97	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.5wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+39.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Portland Fire	44c	116.29$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.68	402	47.3%190 W · 212 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd679…91a0backed Seattle Storm	53c	113.3$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.02	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Seattle Storm	53c	110$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.3	276	49.6%137 W · 139 L	-5.4wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x702e…ff44backed Portland Fire	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Seattle Storm	43c	99.99$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	85	48.2%41 W · 44 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b97…ecd3backed Seattle Storm	50c	82$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.2wins	-0.28per pick	53cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Portland Fire	49c	80.75$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.41	95	46.3%44 W · 51 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf969…4fdbbacked Seattle Storm	53c	75.47$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0378…1755backed Seattle Storm	53c	75.47$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Seattle Storm	54c	68$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.72	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.1wins	-0.13per pick	50cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f41…5ffcbacked Portland Fire	51c	65$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.72	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+2.1wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa406…bd18backed Seattle Storm	49c	64.51$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.61	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x71bc…7fe4backed Seattle Storm	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	149	48.3%72 W · 77 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Portland Fire	44c	62.25$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.59	761	42.7%325 W · 436 L	-19.3wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Portland Fire	48c	59.98$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.19	38	55.3%21 W · 17 L	+2.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf247…d8cabacked Portland Fire	47c	57.67$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.57	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x552e…cdcfbacked Seattle Storm	53c	56.6$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.33per pick	53cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf343…ac3dbacked Seattle Storm	53c	56.6$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked Seattle Storm	54c	51.5$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.81	93	48.4%45 W · 48 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Portland Fire	50c	44.02$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.01	712	45.4%323 W · 389 L	-19.6wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Seattle Storm	54c	40.58$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.91	130	48.5%63 W · 67 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43f7…e591backed Portland Fire	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe00b…256fbacked Portland Fire	51c	39.31$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.31	62	48.4%30 W · 32 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6769…f8b9backed Seattle Storm	52c	38.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-4.0wins	-0.29per pick	50cpaid	-61.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc4c9…617dbacked Portland Fire	50c	38.19$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.1	79	48.1%38 W · 41 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1573…a727backed Seattle Storm	55c	36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.62	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a6a…56bdbacked Seattle Storm	53c	36$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.08	59	45.8%27 W · 32 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3637…21a4backed Portland Fire	49c	33$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.83	44	56.8%25 W · 19 L	+3.5wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd3c…35cfbacked Seattle Storm	53c	32$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.96	90	41.1%37 W · 53 L	-5.4wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a0e…cdedbacked Seattle Storm	52c	31.16$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.05	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd54…b7aebacked Seattle Storm	54c	28.11$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.18	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.6wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Seattle Storm	54c	26.11$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	58	44.8%26 W · 32 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14a4…c39bbacked Seattle Storm	45c	23.71$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.67	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Portland Fire	65c	23.67$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.19	154	53.2%82 W · 72 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked Seattle Storm	51c	23.53$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Portland Fire	51c	22.5$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.02	260	54.6%142 W · 118 L	+9.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fb5…3444backed Seattle Storm	55c	20.4$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.22	36	50%18 W · 18 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Seattle Storm	54c	19.52$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.54	390	45.9%179 W · 211 L	-15.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Portland Fire	77c	14.7$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.35	246	56.5%139 W · 107 L	+6.6wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Seattle Storm (-2.5)this page
Carla Leite: Assists O/U 6.5No won
Carla Leite: Points O/U 16.5No won
Portland Fire vs. Seattle StormPortland Fire won
Portland Fire vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 178.5Under won
Portland Fire vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 179.5Under won
Portland Fire vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 180.5Under won
Portland Fire vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 181.5Under won
Spread: Seattle Storm (-3.5)Portland Fire won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Seattle Storm (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event