TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Portland Fire vs. Phoenix Mercury

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Portland Fireof Portland Fire, Phoenix Mercury
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$270,440
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$302,197

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $270,440 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 221 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Phoenix Mercury65c71,086$46,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,206.148937.1%33 W · 56 L-8.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked Portland Fire35c50,000$17,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,5003740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Portland Fire35c10,710$3,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,962.7328647.9%137 W · 149 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb035…ff78backed Portland Fire47c10,480$4,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,596.62450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Phoenix Mercury75c8,124$6,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,069.37740.3%31 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Phoenix Mercury41c7,342$2,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.0436750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Portland Fire31c5,764$1,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,988.6499548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x684b…8409backed Phoenix Mercury52c5,027$2,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,617.339245.7%42 W · 50 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce36…2b99backed Portland Fire25c4,719$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,523.73137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick28cpaid-69.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d66…ff1dbacked Portland Fire40c4,501$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,700.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Phoenix Mercury72c4,306$3,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,082.1555255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Phoenix Mercury60c3,316$1,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,988.1310340.8%42 W · 61 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d4e…ba20backed Phoenix Mercury79c3,308$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Portland Fire73c3,213$2,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867.5231043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5850…fdd9backed Portland Fire30c3,213$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,248.881154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+3.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Portland Fire35c3,157$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,052.0536154%195 W · 166 L+0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9b…a5ebbacked Phoenix Mercury54c2,978$1,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,602.761346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Portland Fire61c2,936$1,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.1115346.4%71 W · 82 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Portland Fire40c2,737$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,652.71,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Portland Fire63c2,504$1,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.4826147.1%123 W · 138 L+15.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd88a…a7e4backed Phoenix Mercury68c2,326$1,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,581.79580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury70c2,122$1,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,476.951,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Phoenix Mercury62c2,078$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,290.2932150.2%161 W · 160 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Portland Fire32c2,053$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,398.4985158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb209…b744backed Phoenix Mercury7c2,001$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.079036.7%33 W · 57 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6155…808ebacked Portland Fire33c2,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,340250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Phoenix Mercury67c1,891$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.8937141.2%153 W · 218 L-13.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Portland Fire35c1,890$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.1910338.8%40 W · 63 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2978…b511backed Phoenix Mercury30c1,667$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004334.9%15 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Portland Fire36c1,630$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.1519458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x134f…2b5dbacked Portland Fire48c1,458$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed Phoenix Mercury72c1,281$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.6212661.1%77 W · 49 L+11.8wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2918…fe4abacked Phoenix Mercury59c1,228$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.274139%16 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Phoenix Mercury65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65083748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Portland Fire73c944.91$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.135020%10 W · 40 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Phoenix Mercury64c927.2$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.814456.8%25 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c66…76cdbacked Portland Fire36c905.56$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.561275%9 W · 3 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+67.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Phoenix Mercury67c868.03$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.1850646.8%237 W · 269 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x124e…1c58backed Phoenix Mercury61c803.62$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.213548.6%17 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f93…a687backed Phoenix Mercury59c800$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4723231.3%10 W · 22 L-6.8wins-0.21per pick53cpaid-40.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x91b6…4b40backed Portland Fire32c793.23$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.2312234.4%42 W · 80 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Portland Fire51c737$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.8111841.5%49 W · 69 L+0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Portland Fire31c734.18$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.263040%12 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed Portland Fire37c733.59$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.656643.9%29 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+23.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8974…fc7cbacked Phoenix Mercury66c707.55$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4651163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Portland Fire20c700$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56013024.6%32 W · 98 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ac1…d5a6backed Portland Fire35c700$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4558657%49 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f34…7fd6backed Phoenix Mercury75c666.67$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12b1…b851backed Portland Fire32c615.63$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.631136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+18.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4b2…1c67backed Portland Fire39c600$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3682548%12 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0926…6721backed Portland Fire41c599.14$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+145.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…5cd6backed Portland Fire34c588.24$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.243740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Phoenix Mercury3c549.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2544915.6%70 W · 379 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Portland Fire34c541.1$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.1313048.5%63 W · 67 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked Portland Fire23c527.98$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.596746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Phoenix Mercury77c517.41$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4005863.8%37 W · 21 L-0.2wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Phoenix Mercury71c517.21$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.7730649%150 W · 156 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Portland Fire35c499.98$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.999139.6%36 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68cb…6872backed Phoenix Mercury55c489.79$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2703933.3%13 W · 26 L-5.6wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-45.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc820…49debacked Phoenix Mercury62c480.75$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005949.2%29 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed Portland Fire58c465.04$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.192560%15 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb624…3d80backed Portland Fire27c444.44$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.441643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x768f…8a9bbacked Portland Fire32c419.96$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.571464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+32.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd09…42d9backed Portland Fire33c400$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2683259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5145…dd71backed Portland Fire30c400$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2809251.1%47 W · 45 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d9a…d10fbacked Phoenix Mercury17c400$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-30.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdda3…d55fbacked Phoenix Mercury29c399.98$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.993020%6 W · 24 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-53.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8da1…339ebacked Portland Fire61c383.08$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Portland Fire26c378.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.447946.8%37 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd898…a47dbacked Portland Fire31c361.45$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+94.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Portland Fire62c347.34$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.15745.6%26 W · 31 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked Portland Fire34c327$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.359348.4%45 W · 48 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Phoenix Mercury65c322.52$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.647450%37 W · 37 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Phoenix Mercury63c322.36$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.866339.7%25 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked Portland Fire48c321.81$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.34560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+170.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd51b…90a8backed Phoenix Mercury70c317.86$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.333762.2%23 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Portland Fire35c315.58$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.5830734.2%105 W · 202 L-28.2wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-23.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x1bf4…f4c3backed Portland Fire33c303.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.034240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Portland Fire38c300.01$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.432540.3%131 W · 194 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Portland Fire53c293.56$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.1710454.8%57 W · 47 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed Portland Fire35c285.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.717829.5%23 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Phoenix Mercury54c270.14$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.6815048%72 W · 78 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7106…1caabacked Portland Fire73c260$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.35850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-22.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7120…7c4ebacked Phoenix Mercury12c244.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.148228%23 W · 59 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc6…9092backed Phoenix Mercury13c230.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302825%7 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8513…7d41backed Phoenix Mercury52c212.33$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1104751.1%24 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5513…de2abacked Portland Fire75c206.01$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.17742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-41.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8206…4826backed Portland Fire71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-53.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf0…8b2bbacked Phoenix Mercury69c200$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb9f…a6c0backed Portland Fire30c196.4$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.48666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+150.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Phoenix Mercury75c194.23$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.5231448.4%152 W · 162 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Phoenix Mercury69c190$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.837368.5%50 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Phoenix Mercury65c188.56$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.268549.4%42 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56dd…83d5backed Portland Fire33c187.19$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.27944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9845…9d6fbacked Phoenix Mercury13c181.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.59728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-28.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6feb…c082backed Portland Fire35c176.29$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.592748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4eea…8896backed Portland Fire35c175.71$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.21425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1a4…99d0backed Phoenix Mercury62c175.53$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.65875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Portland Fire45c164.44$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.9531847.8%152 W · 166 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5016…ada1backed Phoenix Mercury66c164$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.242958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.