WNBA · resolved market
Portland Fire vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 176.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83b1c4f418b7d6e2b1871734e698239b6dae199f922ae402c03cfb67947f2a88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Over | 56c | 6,754$3,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,781.93 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 4,700$3,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287.63 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c8…8f5abacked Over | 50c | 4,100$2,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,035.02 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -6.5wins | -0.36per pick | 47cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1311…d450backed Over | 50c | 2,985$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 2,687$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.48 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under | 44c | 2,500$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 25c | 2,070$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.04 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…b5afbacked Under | 46c | 1,870$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.81 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…b821backed Over | 51c | 1,400$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.08 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed Under | 50c | 1,026$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.95 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Under | 50c | 1,024$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512 | 285 | 58.6%167 W · 118 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 51c | 1,000$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.97 | 269 | 53.2%143 W · 126 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Over | 24c | 900$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…cadebacked Over | 35c | 759.24$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.74 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 50c | 715.24$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.25 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked Under | 49c | 615.69$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.03 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 602.59$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.79 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Under | 47c | 531$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.43 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 46c | 498.04$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.94 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 34c | 400$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 6c | 315.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 449 | 15.6%70 W · 379 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 46c | 252.42$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.29 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a1…fb15backed Over | 20c | 251.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 54c | 214.22$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.68 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 49c | 192.48$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.92 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 51c | 168.31$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.47 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc820…49debacked Under | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 55c | 146.85$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.77 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 47c | 137.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 62c | 137.26$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.09 | 192 | 57.3%110 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 54c | 122.28$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf5…d359backed Over | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked Under | 45c | 111$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…fe4abacked Over | 10c | 109.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 55c | 98.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 173 | 43.9%76 W · 97 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 71c | 86.01$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 133 | 55.6%74 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 71c | 83.25$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x409e…6352backed Under | 71c | 73.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 71c | 53.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 154 | 53.2%82 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 72c | 45.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 246 | 56.5%139 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 49c | 44.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x492a…46aebacked Under | 49c | 42.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 44c | 42.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 46c | 41.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked Under | 45c | 37.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f4…3dc9backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Under | 74c | 35.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Under | 46c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…4db0backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…4338backed Over | 56c | 25.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portland Fire vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 176.5this page
- Portland Fire vs. Phoenix MercuryPortland Fire won
- Portland Fire vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5Under won
- Portland Fire vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 178.5Under won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)Portland Fire won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)Portland Fire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.